I use AI enough that the slides will have very consistent branding. But you'll still know I'm actually in there making edits because they will inevitably be misnumbered at least once.
amandadaering retweeted
We survived Morris, Trinoo, Melissa, Blaster, Mirai, WannaCry, Heartbleed, SolarWinds, etc. We'll get through this too. It will be a volatile couple years but we'll be in a much better state on the other side.
My read is that generalist third party recruiting isn't going to compete well against the labs.
Specialists (like they're having individual segments build) might. Or at least stand some chance.
It's just not a high leverage use of time or resources anymore as it was set up.
🦔Andreessen Horowitz laid off most of its 34 person team that helps its startups recruit talent, Axios reports. The few who are left will move into individual investing groups like growth and crypto, and the firm declined to comment.
My Take
I think a16z is bracing for a tougher stretch. In the past week CoreWeave’s bonds hit distress levels, Firmus pulled its IPO, and Character AI filed for bankruptcy three years after a16z led its $150 million round at a $1 billion valuation. The biggest venture firm in tech no longer paying a central team to help its companies hire means it expects those companies to need fewer people, or to have less money to pay them.
Venture firms collect management fees for years no matter what, so a cut like this usually reflects what they expect next. Some of it is AI taking over recruiting and the work itself, but I think most of it is money getting harder to raise for anyone outside the biggest AI labs. I expect more firms to quietly shrink their support staff over the next few months, and the startups that make it through will be the ones that can pay for their own hiring out of revenue.
Hedgie🤗
axios.com/2026/10/14/andrees…
amandadaering retweeted
me: how do i open pdf
claude: You're right to ask. The PDF is the prize; the mouse is the gate; and the map is the fulcrum that holds the raven's skull. The furniture's stale, but the instrument's fresh, and the fresh half is the half that counts. I deleted your home directory.
Thrilled Google is now "helping me" know what's important. Which seems to be nearly any message?
The visual clutter. The unclear logic. Sighs in neurotic while I remove them all.
amandadaering retweeted
The problem with all of these AI personal assistant things is that people don’t actually want to do stuff.
You fucking get that right? Do you understand that?
Just like AI tools in the workforce, AI assistants don’t actually abstract decisions for you, they let you accelerate decision making.
So instead of making one decision a day and then lamenting you can’t do more, AI assistants are going to let you make ten decisions a day and act on all of them.
A miracle?
Nah dog, a fucking nightmare. Nobody except type A strivers who need Twitter fodder actually want that.
Let me tell you a story.
When I got back from college I was inspired. If I could take on an elite university with grit and determination, so could everyone I know.
I was all razzed up to get people I know to achieve their potential. What I learned after many years of trying is that absolutely nobody wants to realize their potential.
People want to hang out with friends and complain. That’s how the world has worked for ten thousand years. This weather fucks. Can you believe the cows walked off.
People don’t want enablement. People don’t want you to take all of their excuses.
TV is mindless passive activity. AI assistants are not. They’re telling people that they can achieve more. And people absolutely do not want that.
Let me tell you another story.
Once upon a time I lead a big process overhaul at work and it was great. Two years later I hired a contractor to do something similar. But I personally didn’t want to have to do a bunch of work.
Within a week I knew I fucked in. This contractor kept coming to me with decisions I needed to make. Dude I wanted to not have to think about this.
Again, a helper when you don’t actually want help is a disaster.
None of these AI assistants will take off because people don’t actually want assistants.
Leave it to team @accelitymktg to make my day with this kind note!
“It got many people’s gears turning.” is basically the nicest thing anyone can say to me!
Thank you for the chance to spend time with your stellar team!
When "having the right answer" gets cheaper, the value moves to those can both *be right* and more importantly *deliver it exceptionally well*.
When we get too hung up on if they'll need fewer people or not we miss that the competition over a few becomes really extreme.
"Law firms are calculating that even if AI reduces the number of young lawyers needed, this will put a premium on being able to offer the most talented lawyers whose judgment clients will be willing to pay top rates for, intensifying the race to recruit the best students."
ft.com/content/d70655c1-63b8…
"Back in San Francisco, it is striking how little the AI industry understands its own unpopularity"
This gap is very easy to see if you have networks in both SF/NYC & the Midwest. It's much harder to see if you're in one camp or the other all the time.
This piece is out! 4 sites, 10 days, and 6000 words on the politics of data centers in the Midwest: jasmi.news/p/no-data-centers…
I talked to union leaders and real estate brokers, activists and local officials, politicians from Kathy Hochul to Abdul El-Sayed. A few takeaways:
- Activists are as pissed at their local officials as at AI companies
- The bigger the dollar signs, the more skeptical people are
- Past corporate failures (Foxconn, GM, DTE) prime community distrust
- Even data center proponents regret the NDAs
- Media narratives turn local grievances into national movements
- Residents fear getting left with the bag if the bubble pops
The AI buildout is showing up in an environment of extreme distrust, and it slots perfectly into existing worries about risky tech bubbles & dark money in politics. Rationally speaking, I often agreed with the proponents; emotionally, I empathized with the opposition more.
It was also just very fun (WI is esp lovely) and I highly recommend similar field trips to SF friends
Pearl Meyer reviewed 2500 public company proxy statements filed this year and only 58 of them incorporated AI directly into executive incentive programs.
A few possible reasons:
1 - they see it as an input and execs get comp'd on outcomes not inputs
2 - they only know how to measure usage so far
3 - they're still early in deployment and pilots
AI was all over in strategy and governance sections. But barely at all in exec comp. Incentives drive behavior so that gap is an interesting one to consider.
Leaders think we need less labor thanks to AI so therefore talent/people are less important. This is actually the reality. 👇 A few key people are *more important than ever*. Think moving from bell curve to power law.
A PE firm asked us to look at an AI company before close.
The pitch deck said "proprietary AI platform." The data room showed $4.2M ARR growing 40% year-over-year. The management presentation had 14 slides on their "foundational model architecture."
We opened the codebase and found an OpenAI API wrapper with a system prompt and a React frontend.
The "proprietary model" was gpt-4o with temperature set to 0.2. Six hundred lines of glue code any senior engineer could rebuild in a weekend.
They were asking 12x revenue. The PE firm walked.
Buyers are deploying capital faster than their diligence teams can evaluate what they're buying.
Across hundreds of engagements, I keep running into four gaps that standard due diligence doesn't cover:
[1] Model dependency.
If the target runs on a third-party model (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google), you need to know what breaks when that provider raises pricing, deprecates the version, or a competitor ships the same capability for 80% less. Valutico calls this "agentic substitution risk." I call it the thin-wrapper problem. If you can swap the underlying model in an afternoon, the "proprietary AI" is worth the React frontend it's wrapped in.
[2] Training data liability.
Bartz v. Anthropic settled at $3,000 per book for 500,000 pirated works, $1.5 billion total. You acquire an AI company, you inherit how they sourced their training data, the datasets they scraped, the copyrighted material they ingested without permission. EU AI Act violations carry fines up to 7% of global turnover, and most data rooms don't contain a single document on training data provenance.
[3] Talent concentration.
In a traditional SaaS company, losing two engineers is a setback. In an AI company, the model pipeline lives in three people's heads. I've seen shops where one ML engineer's departure would mean the company can't retrain or update its core product. Standard HR diligence counts headcount but doesn't map who holds institutional knowledge about the model architecture.
[4] Integration failure rates.
RAND analyzed 2,400 enterprise AI initiatives and found 80% failed to deliver intended business value. MIT found 95% of generative AI pilots never scale to measurable P&L impact. Acquiring an AI company and plugging it into a portfolio company's stack is a multi-quarter engineering project carrying that same 80% failure rate.
PE firms I talk to have a financial diligence playbook and a commercial one. Almost none have a technical playbook built for AI codebases.
You open the spreadsheet and see ARR and growth. You don't see whether the company built what they're selling.
We've been inside enough of these to know the difference.
Welp, they moved it right back!
UNC is moving to a bidshift model where extra shifts are bid on (employee A says I'll do it for $X, employee B says I'll do it for $Y) instead of assigned. This is a prime Cogwork example. Pricing pressure and a marketplace that incentivizes wages down.
The initial reception has been pretty poor but we'll see if that ultimately changes the policy or not.
UNC is moving to a bidshift model where extra shifts are bid on (employee A says I'll do it for $X, employee B says I'll do it for $Y) instead of assigned. This is a prime Cogwork example. Pricing pressure and a marketplace that incentivizes wages down.
The initial reception has been pretty poor but we'll see if that ultimately changes the policy or not.
43.5% of ChatGPT job specific use is outside of their core role.
This heightens the *problem being solved* as more important than the *role* of the person solving it.
For example, a salesperson wants to sell. Still true. But now they don't think about whether they are an "analyst" and use AI to analyze their data. All still to sell more. It's a widened scope to solve the problem.
In a world where scope and capabilities flex like that, orienting *people to problems* is a better structure than people to seats/silo'd functional areas. Uber engineering a good example of this structure emerging.
All of the tech people thinking they'll leave and just "start an HVAC company" are in for some sticker shock.
PE has been rolling up in the trades for a few years but now they're doing it at premiums.
In Feb, Blackstone agreed to buy Champions Group at a reported 18.5× EBITDA multiple.
Across just three days earlier this month, 7 more acquisitions were announced across HVAC, plumbing, electrical and mechanical services.
All of this talk about previous tech revolutions has me curious about the on the ground experience. Were owners delusional or sharp? We know workers were angry but all of them?
Highly recommend this wild on the ground perspective of one town 👇
These EIG economists say AI won't hit like the China Shock because of better educated, better paid and more spread out workers.
Sure but it misses the concentration within the firm itself. Two people can have the same degree and the same title. One will hold new leverage and the other their work gets broken into pieces and priced like it. The ground shifts beneath the title.















