Founder & CEO @smarkets. Prediction markets since 2008. Father. London.
Joined October 2007
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Prediction markets aren't "right" or "wrong" - it's the wrong framing. They're a real time price. 20% chance events happen 1 in 5 times.
Well said. I hope our kids' generation look back at active shooter drills the same way we look at smoking on planes.
I am heading to NYC for a prediction markets conference called NEXTPredict today. But I don’t want to be heading to NYC for NEXTPredict today.
I live in Bend, Oregon, the town where the latest school shooting happened. I know folks impacted by this directly, and the entire town is hurting and scared.
The shooting happened on Thursday. I picked up my six-year-old, who had just gotten out of a lockdown at a school in a different part of town. She was scared and confused. And at the time we still didn’t know the extent of what happened, that kids had died.
I have struggled with how to talk to my daughter about all of this. And I am heartbroken for the parents who have lost their children or who are struggling far more than my family.
When I am at home, I walk my daughter to school and pick her up. Every day. She returns to school today for the first time, and part of me wanted to cancel the trip so that I can be the one to walk her to school, to make sure she gets there safe. To give her one more hug before I send her back out into the world.
Today I hope and pray that I come home and get to hug her again.
The IMF has the US deficit heading to 8.5% of GDP once you count state and local governments. No recession, no pandemic. What happens during the next downturn?
Top economies heading for biggest budget deficits since Covid, IMF warns ft.trib.al/C5AJgBR
Good chat with @GeoffZochodne on our US plans. The short version: a betting exchange and a prediction market are the same thing. Different words for the same thing. Soccer and football.
Spoke recently with Smarkets CEO @jasontrost about their U.S. ambitions (pending CFTC approval, of course):
Smarkets’ US Prediction Market Plans Include New Look, Years of Betting Exchange Experience
covers.com/industry/smarkets…
@Covers
TIL large shops in England can only open 6 hours on a Sunday. Amazon thanks Parliament for its support.
34-13 over Penn State in the awesome new Ryan Field opener with 413 rushing yards, most since 2003. What a way to open with a bang #gocats
AI is moving so fast but the first step of regulation is super simple: transparency. Put a government inspector inside each lab, like the NRC guy in a nuclear power plant. They don't need powers (for now), they just watch what's going on and report to Congress twice a year. Intel committee if it's classified. Easy.
Mention markets are ridiculous. Easy to manipulate, not interesting, flagged by the regulator for good reason, and only there for clicks on social media. Not on our exchange.
The CFTC said that mention markets are more susceptible to exploitation “because their settlement turns on the discrete conduct of a person that may be neither independently generated nor externally verifiable.”
cnbc.com/2026/09/22/cftc-pre…
We just launched a new Smarkets interface (and made an ad for it). Really happy with how both turned out. Big thanks to the team.
We spent over a decade being regulated by the UKGC. Now we're adding a CFTC-regulated exchange alongside it.
Full interview with Kristina Ayanian and @Nasdaq here: nasdaq.com/videos/smarkets
