It goes without saying that on a historic election night for the Arab voters, in which they’ve elected an unprecedented number of MKs, Netanyahu has just totally disregarded them as equal citizens. But that was to be expected. What’s more disappointing (though sadly not very surprising) is that the Jewish opposition leaders didn’t make any gesture in their speeches to the Arabs either, and spoke of a “Zionist” government. They deserve to lose to Netanyahu.

נתניהו: חרדים עדיפים על ערבים. לכן אסור לכם להקים ממשלה.

So no olive branch from Netanyahu to the opposition, but he isn’t claiming either that his coalition is going to win. Instead he’s stressing his camp’s “Zionist” and “Jewish” majority and delegitimising any idea of a government supported by the Arab parties. It’s not a victory speech. It’s an election speech. The election isn’t over. It could be just beginning. He still hopes the numbers and a few defectors can somehow add up to a majority, or one of the opposition parties caves, but he’s already preparing the ground for the next election campaign in early 2027. The other main element in the speech was of course Iran. Which, together with his friend Trump, Israel has a “one-off opportunity” to defeat “once and for all.” Netanyahu’s strategy now is clear. 1. He’s lost his Knesset majority but he’s going to make sure no-one else can form a government 2. Launch a 3rd war with Iran, which of course will finally topple the regime 3. Then a quick election which he will win handily.

The election results, if they’re anywhere near the exit polls, puts Israel in a fateful position. A clear majority is against the Netanyahu coalition. A clear majority is against a government including the Arab parties. The centrist parties have a massive dilemma here. Which taboo will they break? Netanyahu’s strategy is clear. Run a delegitimisation campaign against a government supported by the Arab parties and run down the clock until either part of the opposition breaks and joins him or there’s no alternative but to hold another election. Which he will have a better chance of winning. The opposition’s only alternative is to make the numbers, which on paper are in their favour, actually work. The opposition beat the Netanyahu camp. The Arab parties won an unprecedented number of seats. But to add those numbers together so they can support a sustainable government flies in the face of every Israeli political precedent. The next weeks and months will be tortuous and the increasingly likely outcome is just another election.

מבחינתי אזרחי ישראל שווים ולכן גוש נתניהו הפסיד 70-50. אבל למי שמתעקש להתגזען: גוש נתניהו הפסיד בקרב היהודים 53-50 גוש נתניהו הפסיד בקרב המשרתים 53-37