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Heads or tails to decide the Senate.
Most of the close races are within the margin of error. So we flipped coins on six questions we know favor one side or the other.
Heads is Republican. Tails is Democratic.
Free chart: members.rationalground.com/h…
Republicans keep the House only if the polls miss by about 4 points.
Shift every district in our forecast by the same miss. A 2024-size miss still leaves Democrats 221 seats. It takes one bigger than 2020's (3.9 points). The 218th seat: Virginia's 2nd.
In the 20 closest House races, 19 are inside the polls' margin of error, and most of those polls were paid for by the campaigns.
rationalground.com
Where Republicans lead, here's how much room they have, traced from the 2024 vote:
Iowa: Hinson holds unless more than 1 in 9 Trump voters switch.
Nebraska: Ricketts holds unless more than 1 in 6 back Osborn.
South Carolina: Graham holds unless more than 1 in 7 switch.
members.rationalground.com
If the polls are off (like they were in 2024), then the GOP holds Ohio, Texas, and Alaska and retains the Senate.
Updated predictions, one day out:
🔵 El-Sayed wins Michigan
🔴 Collins holds Maine
🔵 Brown wins Ohio
🔵 Talarico wins Texas
🔵 Peltola wins Alaska
🔵 Hamilton upsets in Kansas
🔴 Hinson wins Iowa
🔴 Ricketts wins Nebraska
🔴 Graham wins SC
One change since Saturday: Ohio. The final polls and the early vote both lean Brown now.
That's a 52-48 Democratic Senate.
Tomorrow night, four early races will tell us which way it's going.
6 pm ET: Kentucky's 6th
7 pm: Georgia governor
7:30: Ohio Senate. Brown wins: Democrats 89% for the Senate. Husted wins: 46%.
8 pm: Texas. Talarico wins: 88%. Paxton wins: 46%.
I'm live at 5:45 pm ET: members.rationalground.com/e…
Last call: our election special is good through Tuesday. $56 for a full year of Rational Ground, 20% off.
Paid subscribers get the members' site: the full forecast, the AI Anchor Desk, every outside dollar and the early vote. Plus our COVID FOIA database.
members.rationalground.com
Tomorrow night, I'm going live.
Election Night Live: How Wrong Are the Polls?
5:45 pm Eastern, right before the first polls close.
We'll track how far off the polls are, race by race, with our forecast updating live on screen. By 8 pm Eastern we should know which way the night is going.
Watch on YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=DkMyEmFs…
Or right here on X.
Excepting Minnesota, any miss on these senate race predictions will knock Atlas Intel off their “best pollster” pedestal.
🇺🇸 ATLAS POLL | US MIDTERMS 2026
US SENATE
Democratic candidates lead in all 10 U.S. Senate races surveyed by AtlasIntel, with margins ranging from 2.4pp in Minnesota to 14.9pp in North Carolina.
🔵 North Carolina: Cooper +14.9pp
🔵 Maine: Jackson +9.1pp
🔵 New Hampshire: Pappas +8.1pp
🔵 Ohio: Brown +7.5pp
🔵 Michigan: El-Sayed +7.1pp
🔵 Kansas: Hamilton +7.0pp
🔵 Texas: Talarico +5.9pp
🔵 Alaska: Peltola +5.5pp
🔵 Iowa: Turek +4.1pp
🔵 Minnesota: Flanagan +2.4pp
One day out, tonight's forecast: Democrats 76% to win the Senate (52 seats on average) and 96% to win the House.
Kansas moved toward Hamilton today, to 60%. Iowa is the closest Senate race: Hinson 52%.
Full forecast: members.rationalground.com
Four more Senate races, traced from the 2024 vote:
Michigan: El-Sayed needs almost no Trump voters to win. To lead by 4, about 1 in 22.
Alaska: Peltola needs about 1 in 9.
Kansas: Hamilton needs about 1 in 8.
Maine: flip it around. Collins wins if more than 1 in 10 Harris voters back her.
members.rationalground.com
Every Senate race on one chart, by win chance and outside money, from Sept. 1 to today.
On Sept. 1, Democrats had a 48% chance at the Senate. Today: 75%. Hit play and watch the battlefield move.
members.rationalground.com/b…
More than 57 million Americans have already voted: over half of the whole 2022 midterm vote in the same states.
Where states record party, the early vote moved toward Democrats in Kansas, Oklahoma and North Carolina, and toward Republicans in Pennsylvania and Iowa.
Follow it with us: members.rationalground.com
Texas, one day out, as a footrace.
Talarico leads the poll average by about 2. Our forecast gives him 69%. Slide the polls off by a few points and watch Paxton close the gap.
members.rationalground.com/t…
What would it take for Democrats to flip two Trump states? We started from the 2024 vote and solved for it.
Ohio: for Brown to lead by 2, about 1 in 9 Trump voters have to vote for him.
Texas: for Talarico, about 1 in 8. AtlasIntel's poll gets there with just 1 in 23, because its new voters break 91 to 3.
Chart idea: armin at Split Ticket. Every race: members.rationalground.com
Tomorrow night, read it with us.
6 pm ET: the first polls close.
7:30 pm: 14 races are in, enough to see about 81% of any national polling miss.
8 pm: Texas, Michigan and Kansas. About 88%.
Free decoder: members.rationalground.com/e…
The full forecast behind it is for members. Get in at members.rationalground.com
All nine close Senate races are within the margin of error.
But polls miss together. Move every race by 2024's miss (2.9 points too blue) and Ohio, Texas and Alaska flip to the Republicans. Move them by 2022's miss (2.6 too red) and Iowa, Nebraska and South Carolina flip the other way.
In 2022 and 2024 the polls picked the winner in 21 of 24 close races. The biggest lead they got wrong: Casey +3.1.
Almost $2 billion in outside money has poured into this year's Senate races. Follow it, and you can see which races the parties think they can win.
Texas and Ohio: over $400 million each. North Carolina: written off.
Every race: members.rationalground.com/f…
Which state decides the Senate?
In our forecast's simulations, the deciding seat is close to a five-way tie: Texas 13%, Ohio 13%, Alaska 12%, Kansas 12%, Maine 11%.
members.rationalground.com/t…
What if the polls are wrong again?
Our forecast gives Democrats a 75% chance at the Senate. Miss like 2024 and four races flip: Democrats fall to 20%. Miss like 2020: 12%. Miss like 2022, the last midterm, and Democrats are still favored.
Build your own Senate: members.rationalground.com/b…
24 hours until the first polls close.
100 Senate seats in one boat. As polled, Democrats are favored. Slide how wrong the polls are and watch it tip. A 2020-sized miss flips it to Republicans.
members.rationalground.com/i…
