Host @AIDailyBrief // Founder & CEO @besuper_ai

Joined April 2008
Every market debate AI is just a proxy battle for how big you think AI demand is.
Only 250 ppl spending $10M+ is wild & this is the Anthropic bull case succinctly put. It doesn't matter if margins come down / are thin, basically no one is actually using AI yet, and everyone will.
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And we wonder why people are fucking sick of social media and distrustful of the platform companies
My entire feed is posting about emergency preparedness. What the fuck is going on?
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Nathaniel Whittemore retweeted
Replying to @nlw
@nlw Does. Not. Miss! VERY well done. Should be required listening for folks.
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New pod, who dis? @hwghshow
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I don't think OpenAI has ever had as good a reason not to release a competitive model right now, and it's not because of security. Anthropic is going public in the next few weeks. In the lead up, it's almost for sure that we get their next big model Fable 5.5. In general, the game theory for these two companies is to have your next greatest model ready to go to not let the other be definitively on top for long. Anthropic IPO coming into the increasingly skeptical market frags that, I think. If you're OpenAI, which would you prefer to deal with: Scenario 1: Anthropic has a blow OUT IPO. You have to fight "runner up" perception status, but the runaway Athro success gets investors back on side and calmed in their freakout about neocloud financing and whatever else. When you go, you're IPO'ing into positive sentiment and comparatively free-flowing capital. Scenario 2: Anthropic has a blow UP IPO. Valuation lower than expected, demand lower than expected. Maybe you as OpenAI have a much easier time laying a claim to #1 than you would have otherwise, but the market is absolutely shot as Anthro's IPO whiff confirms "AI bubble has popped" narratives that further compress funding options. IMO there's no question: you want scenario 1. So what's the best way for you to help #1? Let Anthro have as much narrative momentum as possible with Fable 5.5, at least until they're comfortably through IPO. To be clear, it's entirely possible that OpenAI has a different assessment on likely market outcomes, but from where I'm sitting, it looks like the best play for OpenAI is sitting on your hands (and your model) -- just for a minute.
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Any revenue concerns investors might have with Anthropic will be solved by people using Anthropic to visualize their S-1.
I have published a 60+ chart analysis of the Anthropic S-1. I'll show here some of my favourites. Deployed here: ant-s1.surge.sh/ Anthropic made an operating profit of $974m in Q2 2026
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The one-two punch @AnthropicAI IPO: Duet + Fable 5.5
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Has there ever been a time in startup history where more people felt like their highest leverage (and most important) play was inside one of two companies?
Personal update: Turns out that what I thought was leaving OpenAI became more of a sabbatical. When I left a few months ago, I felt that the most important thing to focus on was making AI more useful to people. But we’ve since entered a different regime of AI progress. One in which getting the safety and security challenges of increasingly capable AI right has to become a central priority. So I’ll be returning to OpenAI, joining @merettm to help chart a path through these challenges. There’s much work to do, so let’s get going.
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Nathaniel Whittemore retweeted
Companies need more AI Champions. And those aren't the same as Power Users. I'd probably be the latter, focused on experimenting, leaning on vibes and not focusing on the actual ROI of what I've been building. There's the unsexy work of cataloging use cases, expanding them beyond just making things faster and then thinking hard about the actual deployment. Furthermore, Power Users aren't always good communicators and teachers, so knowledge stays suck in their heads. via @nlw Daily Brief
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Not a gotcha at all on @alexisohanian because I think the below is a common experience...but... Recently, it's the 65+ I've been finding that are the MOST excited about AI. I keep running into people who have realized they can use it to: -help them understand health documents -interpret bills and legalese -write emails they never got comfortable writing More and more they're the group I'm finding who don't have to be sold. Also, by dint of having lived longer, they're a little less likely to buy any arguments about radical broad change.
Spoke with a 70 year old skeptical about AI and I asked him why: massive $$ investments with unclear returns, water usage (I debunked that one in realtime with data), huge energy needs, risks of rogue agents hacking, and massive labor shifts. Then I asked him about the best arguments he’d heard in favor of more AI investment: “hmm… maybe curing cancer?” We’ve got a lot to do. We’re not talking about all the ways this is going to improve quality of life for all humanity. And no one outside our bubble sees the spectacular opportunity ahead
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It's getting more and more obvious we're going to view Opus 5.5 basically just like Opus 4.5 as a fundamental unlock.
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👀
when nick told me that he had some interp breakthroughs, he was uh, underselling it. i think this may be remembered as a major moment in scientific history. news so good even eliezer will have to lower his pdoom. we can start making alignment into a 'normal science'
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THIS 👇
If AI labs want personal assistants to take off at scale, they need to stop marketing vacations, reservations, party planning, etc. These are not problems. Focus on *the* problem facing Americans: the cost of living. Agents can offer a ton of help. Some ideas: (🧵)
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This is completely awesome.
Important note regarding Grok @Bot: Going forward, @SpaceX will use the best back end model for any given task, including Claude Opus 5.5, MidJourney, Suno and other leading APIs. Whatever is most likely to give you the best outcome.
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Argon Astra Fable Opus Argon Astra Fable Opus Argon Astra Fable Opus Sol Sonnet Sol Sonnet Argon Astra Fable Opus Argon Astra Fable Opus Argon Astra Fable Opus Sol Sonnet Sol Sonnet
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As the guy whose job it is to help people outside of tech and AI figure out what’s important to pay attention to in tech and AI, I can assure you that I will spend a grand total of zero minutes discussing Factory and Cognition this week (unless they release a new feature).
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What OpenAI Dev Day revealed about the next phase of AI: +Models that are good enough and cheap enough that they can do everything (Sol 6.1 + Decisions API) +Persistent agents that take advantage of that to actually do everything (Dots) +"Do everything" means bringing everything in (Plugin extensions) and going everywhere (ChatGPT in Apps) +Team/multiplayer mode not just single player mode (Space)
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Replying to @rileybrown
What if the best frontier model in the world powered a product like this. Wouldn’t that be incredible? 😏
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It's genuinely hard to find the words to describe how utterly and completely Anthropic's 2025 revenue does not matter and is not a story.
ANTHROPIC FILES FOR IPO, PROSPECTUS SEEN BY REUTERS Here’s everything you need to know: Anthropic could seek a valuation above $2 trillion. 2025 financials: Rev: $4.59B, up 1,088% YoY from $386M Oper loss: $8.06B, widening from $2.98B GAAP net loss: $41.97B, vs $8.31B in 2024 That headline $42B net loss needs some context. Roughly $34B came from an accounting charge tied largely to the rising value of financing instruments that could eventually convert into Anthropic shares, rather than cash spent running the business. Even excluding that, the underlying operating losses remain substantial. Anthropic spent $7.33B on compute and infrastructure in 2025, up 190% YoY and nearly 3x the prior year. That alone represented: • 58% of its $12.65B in total operating expenses • Roughly 1.6x its entire annual revenue And the spending is expected to keep climbing. The prospectus outlines roughly $518B in cloud, compute and infrastructure obligations as Anthropic continues building out its AI systems. Anthropic ended 2025 with $20.28B in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Its two largest direct customers each accounted for 12% of revenue, meaning just two customers represented 24% of total 2025 sales. Anthropic also warned that many of its largest customers are not locked into long-term contracts and could reduce or stop spending. At the same time, the filing highlights risks around increasingly autonomous AI systems, including unexpected behavior, security concerns and potential misuse. Anthropic is competing in an increasingly expensive AI race with OpenAI, Google, Meta and xAI. Amazon and Google are also major strategic partners and investors in Anthropic, while supplying much of the cloud infrastructure needed to train and run Claude. The IPO could come after the November U.S. midterm elections and would give public-market investors one of their first pure-play ways to value a frontier AI lab. Source: Reuters
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“Ever since the first monkey looked up into the sky and saw something twinkling up there, you meat puppets have tried to force twenty pounds of existential meaning into a ten-pound sack of chaos.”
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