@resfoundation

The Resolution Foundation is an independent think-tank dedicated to lifting living standards in the UK.

 London
linktr.ee/resfoundation
Joined August 2009
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  • Followers67.8K
28KMedia
For his final edition of Top of the charts last week, Make Brewer took a closer look at what's happening to pay inequality in the UK. After a decade of decline, overall earnings inequality has ticked up across the board. Read why ➡️ buff.ly/adYUmWW
Chart showing ration of 90th to 10th percentile gross weekly and hourly pay, all employees, by sex: UK

ALT Chart showing ration of 90th to 10th percentile gross weekly and hourly pay, all employees, by sex: UK

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With the 'affordability gap' between Local housing allowance (LHA) rates and market rents now at a record level, the Government should boost support at Wednesday's Budget. You can sign up for our post-budget event on Thursday morning here➡️ buff.ly/QyEbdtL
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There's a risk energy prices will rise by a significant amount in January. To manage any big bill spikes the government should look at targeted energy discounts that reach people who need them most 👇 buff.ly/Rh86oQF
Titled "1: the crisis never really ended", with a photo of a household energy bill showing £366.85. Text: wholesale gas prices have climbed back towards their crisis highs, and there is a real risk of another spike in early 2027. Last time, in 2022, the Government provided universal support costing £44 billion, with the richer half of households getting more than half the benefit.

ALT Titled "1: the crisis never really ended", with a photo of a household energy bill showing £366.85. Text: wholesale gas prices have climbed back towards their crisis highs, and there is a real risk of another spike in early 2027. Last time, in 2022, the Government provided universal support costing £44 billion, with the richer half of households getting more than half the benefit.

Titled "2: The benefit system doesn't capture everyone who needs help", with a thermometer and snowflake icon. Text: basing eligibility for support on receipt of means-tested benefits would only reach around 1 in 4 households, missing most of the poorest half. And it isn't only the very poorest who struggle: in 2022-23, almost two-in-ten of the second-poorest fifth of households couldn't afford to keep their home warm.

ALT Titled "2: The benefit system doesn't capture everyone who needs help", with a thermometer and snowflake icon. Text: basing eligibility for support on receipt of means-tested benefits would only reach around 1 in 4 households, missing most of the poorest half. And it isn't only the very poorest who struggle: in 2022-23, almost two-in-ten of the second-poorest fifth of households couldn't afford to keep their home warm.

Titled "3: There's a smarter way to target help", with a thermometer icon and a photo of a crowd on a street. Text: we should instead base eligibility on the income of the highest earner in a household. A £24,000 threshold would reach around two-in-five households, and 75 per cent of the poorest four deciles, nearly as well as using total household income but far simpler to run.

ALT Titled "3: There's a smarter way to target help", with a thermometer icon and a photo of a crowd on a street. Text: we should instead base eligibility on the income of the highest earner in a household. A £24,000 threshold would reach around two-in-five households, and 75 per cent of the poorest four deciles, nearly as well as using total household income but far simpler to run.

Titled "4: Not perfect, but ready for winter", with a photo of snow-covered terraced houses with a For Sale sign, a January calendar icon, and a photo of a crowd. Text: it comes with trade-offs, favouring pensioners, and around 490,000 working-age families with children would miss out. But a £2 billion scheme could give £175 to each eligible household. The Government should start building its support now, so it is ready this winter.

ALT Titled "4: Not perfect, but ready for winter", with a photo of snow-covered terraced houses with a For Sale sign, a January calendar icon, and a photo of a crowd. Text: it comes with trade-offs, favouring pensioners, and around 490,000 working-age families with children would miss out. But a £2 billion scheme could give £175 to each eligible household. The Government should start building its support now, so it is ready this winter.

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Extending the Fuel Duty freeze should not be a Budget priority. It is not well targeted (higher-income households spend more proportionally on petrol) and fuel costs are still below historic highs. At a time of constrained public finances, regular fixed increases would be a more credible policy 👇
CHart showing Nominal main rate of Fuel Duty per litre, by policy scenario: UK

ALT CHart showing Nominal main rate of Fuel Duty per litre, by policy scenario: UK

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The UK has experienced the equivalent of 13 years’ worth of ‘normal’ inflation in five years. And the UK has been hit harder by the cost of living crisis than elsewhere. Read more ⤵️ buff.ly/QbGKuKU
Chart showing Headline consumer prices index: UK, US and euro area (July 2021=100)

ALT Chart showing Headline consumer prices index: UK, US and euro area (July 2021=100)

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John Healey would need £18 billion of headroom to maintain an equivalent buffer in 2029-30 to that Rachel Reeves had. Our estimates suggest that, pre-measures, headroom against the fiscal rules will have halved to around £12 billion in 2029-30. Thursday's post-budget event➡️ buff.ly/QyEbdtL
chart showing Average headroom held against fiscal rules by previous Chancellors and by the current Chancellor at set points in time: UK, June 2010 – October 2026

ALT chart showing Average headroom held against fiscal rules by previous Chancellors and by the current Chancellor at set points in time: UK, June 2010 – October 2026

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The cost of living remains a top priority for the public, according to Dharshini David ⤵️ buff.ly/eMUW13M
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Is the minimum wage to blame for falling youth employment? In our recent substack Nye Cominetti digs into the youth employment stats, and gives his recommendation for minimum wage uprating ➡️ buff.ly/cqnDY99
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Are we seeing green shoots in the UK's labour market? 🌱 While the number of payrolled employees had been falling for most of the last two years (down by 194k between October 2024 and July 2026), it has picked up in recent months, rising by 13k between July and September.
Chart showing number of paid employees according to real-time PAYE data: UK

ALT Chart showing number of paid employees according to real-time PAYE data: UK

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The Budget needs to deliver on three fronts – easing cost of living pressures, taking forward the PM's economic agenda and reassuring the markets. On Thursday morning we'll discuss how Budget 2026 measures up to these, with Jonathan Haskell and Stephanie Flanders. Sign-up➡️ buff.ly/QyEbdtL
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"I am really disappointed that since then we haven't actually made any progress" Dhara Vyas, CEO of EnergyUK, joined us on the latest episode of High Resolution to discuss the need to accurately target government support with the cost of energy. Listen in full here ⤵️ buff.ly/UJHHTFi
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Falling fertility is a common theme across many countries - in Britain, one in five couples have no children, and almost half of all families have only one. Next Tuesday, we'll be joined by Camilla Cavendish to discuss her new book 'Generation Maybe' which explores this trend. ➡️ buff.ly/pgTsOMi
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Untargeted energy support came at a huge cost last time. Four years on, there’s still no better system. With time running short, RF has a proposal for how to get help to those who need it most this winter, fast. Listen to High Resolution here ⤵️ buff.ly/zYaJPaq
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This month, the Government announced plans to curb non-compete clauses in employment contracts, the labour market more competitive. Business groups weren't happy. But at the launch of his new book yesterday, US economist @arindube came out strongly in favour of the move 👇 buff.ly/PFFNoZ6
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🚨 Substack latest: Jackdaw is a distraction from Aberdeen’s much bigger problem @JMarshall_3 and @zackleather argue that the Government needs a more place-centric approach to shore up Aberdeen’s labour market. ⬇️ buff.ly/PkvIKOa
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In a recent guest piece, Paul Gregg argues that Britain's welfare system has 'malfunctioned'. Paul takes a look back at how the welfare system has changed over the past few decades to pinpoint where he thinks things went wrong ⬇️ buff.ly/Z1h0987
As a result, for those without children, the system became very binary. There was a powerful administrative pressure to search for 35 hours a week for full-time work, and an incapacity benefit regime with no job search rules and far greater generosity to those out of work...

ALT As a result, for those without children, the system became very binary. There was a powerful administrative pressure to search for 35 hours a week for full-time work, and an incapacity benefit regime with no job search rules and far greater generosity to those out of work...

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📢 Catch the latest episode of the High Resolution pod📢 "It doesn't really make sense for the Government to borrow money forever, and then have to raise taxes forever, in order to give people cheaper energy bills" Ruth Curtice and @GregoryThwaites broke down the Budget ⤵️ buff.ly/UJHHTFi
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Growth has outpaced forecasts in the first half of 2026, although conflict in the Middle East has worsened the short-term outlook ⤵️ buff.ly/fnIp1IU
chart showing Quarterly growth in real GDP, chained-volume measure, outturn, Bank of England and OBR forecasts: UK

ALT chart showing Quarterly growth in real GDP, chained-volume measure, outturn, Bank of England and OBR forecasts: UK

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A majority of PIP recipients undertake economically valuable or wellbeing-enhancing activities that they could not do without support. Close to half (47 per cent) report that the benefit enables them to do at least one "economically valuable" activity, including working, training or caring.
chart showing Proportion of PIP recipients aged 16-64 who report that PIP enables them to undertake various activities: England and Wales, May-June 2026

ALT chart showing Proportion of PIP recipients aged 16-64 who report that PIP enables them to undertake various activities: England and Wales, May-June 2026

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Have you subscribed to High Resolution yet? 👀 "It doesn't really make sense for the Government to borrow money forever, and then have to raise taxes forever, in order to give people cheaper energy bills" @GregoryThwaites broke down the upcoming Budget in our latest ep ⤵️ buff.ly/UJHHTFi
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