
Chairman & CEO @Strive Christ, Liberty, Bitcoin $ASST $SATA $SATS @hurdleratepod
Joined November 2021
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After DOGE, Elon came to a conclusion most people missed.
He tried to reform the state from the inside. He failed. And he said it plainly: the government can't fix its own deficit. Nobody in power actually wants to cut. The machine protects itself.
So he drew the only logical conclusion. If the state can't be reformed, there are only two ways this ends.
Either global bankruptcy. Debt keeps compounding, interest payments eat the budget, and the system collapses under its own weight.
Or robots. AI and robotics grow the economy so fast that the debt becomes manageable, and abundance makes the old fights over scarcity irrelevant.
Here's the part almost nobody sees.
For two centuries, capitalism has had a marketing problem. Its gains are real but slow and invisible. 2% growth a year doesn't feel like anything. Your life gets better over 30 years and you never connect it to the system that did it. Meanwhile, the left's promises feel immediate and concrete: a check, a subsidy, a benefit. That's why the left wins on promises even when it can't deliver them. Capitalism produces the wealth, socialism takes the credit.
Robots break that asymmetry.
When productivity doubles in a few years instead of a few decades, people will see it. Things get cheaper, services get better, opportunities appear, in real time. For the first time in history, people will connect capitalism and their rising standard of living directly, almost instantly. The causal chain becomes visible.
And that changes everything politically.
So there are two scenarios.
Scenario one: we stay in the current inertia. No breakthrough, or a breakthrough we regulate to death. The debt wins. Living standards stagnate, then fall. A frustrated electorate turns to whoever promises the most, and that pushes toward a hard collectivist left. But collectivism fails, as it always does. And when it fails, the most organized, most disciplined collectivist force left standing isn't the old left. It's radical Islamism. Bankruptcy, then communism, then something worse.
Scenario two: robots win. Abundance arrives, and it arrives visibly. The link between free enterprise and prosperity becomes obvious to everyone. And this is the key point: it becomes obvious to everyone, including the minorities the left was counting on. Because their long-term incentive is the same as everyone else's. A kid in the suburbs gains infinitely more from a booming, abundant West than from a bankrupt state handing out promises it can't keep. Abundance is the most powerful integration machine ever built.
That's the Western renaissance.
The West doesn't need to win the culture war by arguing. It needs to win it by delivering. And for the first time, it has the technology to deliver fast enough for people to notice.
The race isn't left vs right anymore. It's robots vs bankruptcy.
Matt Cole retweeted
Tl;Dr:
$SATA has performed exceptionally well in a rising yield environment across the entire world of credit
SATA grew from $200M to over $1.4B in notional outstanding in under a year. Since IPO, its yield closed with a 13% handle or lower on 97.2% of trading days. That remains true today with an effective yield of 13.31%.
Over the same period, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 82 bps. Single-B yields rose 149 bps and CCC yields rose 525 bps.
We judge our Digital Credit products by both the demand they attracted and what their yields are doing relative to that of traditional bond market yields.
We believe the yields investors can earn outside of Digital Credit is critical when assessing the most accretive way to support our products, with the goal of maximally & responsibly amplifying Bitcoin exposure for our common equity investors over the long run.
SATA grew from $200M to over $1.4B in notional outstanding in under a year. Since IPO, its yield closed with a 13% handle or lower on 97.2% of trading days. That remains true today with an effective yield of 13.31%.
Over the same period, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 82 bps. Single-B yields rose 149 bps and CCC yields rose 525 bps.
We judge our Digital Credit products by both the demand they attracted and what their yields are doing relative to that of traditional bond market yields.
We believe the yields investors can earn outside of Digital Credit is critical when assessing the most accretive way to support our products, with the goal of maximally & responsibly amplifying Bitcoin exposure for our common equity investors over the long run.
Matt Cole retweeted
Regardless of election results or geopolitical turmoil, I believe Bitcoin is the foundation for the new capital structure that will be emerging in response to decades of monetary debasement.
We have Bitcoin for savers who want to preserve purchasing power across decades, digital credit for investors who want predictable distributions, and amplified exposure to an appreciating asset for growth investors.
Investors have fundamentally different economic needs, requiring fundamentally different claims on capital. Bitcoin will provide the foundation and financial engineering determines how risk, cash flow, and upside will be distributed among investors.
There is a new capital market emerging around the most credibly scarce asset in human history.
All roads lead back to Bitcoin.
The world is increasingly complex & dysfunctional, but I believe the optimal investments for the most common needs will become increasingly simple & clear:
Income: Digital Credit
Savings: Bitcoin
Growth: Amplified Bitcoin
$ASST $SATA solana:DSgjVUFC6NA59YuxiEDSxgs6zP4jjwSuoYJ3uS7WboeH $BTC
JUST IN: Strive CEO Matt Cole just said, "We're moving into an environment with a debt crisis in the U.S. and a more volatile world. What people are going to need during this is a really high yield."
"We're seeing this in some of the early success in $SATS. It was the 5th most traded preferred equity last week."
"That is the most bullish environment for Bitcoin that you could ever imagine. It's the debasement trade playing out in real time." 👀🔥
Matt Cole retweeted
Here's a useful way to think about what is going on in TX: The 8th largest economy in the world is experiencing regime change
The fact that voters are universally saying their #1 issue is the economy while markets are basically at all-time highs is the single worst omen imaginable for the future of American capitalism as we’ve known it
The good news is someone already built you an exit for this exact moment
Probably the biggest math nerd conversation we’ve ever had publicly, but much needed.
Tune in for a deep dive on credit spreads and valuation math. It’s time to reset the conversation.
Welcome Back To The Hurdle Rate
Episode 80: Debt Crisis Is Accelerating
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $6B Binance hack, Triple C spreads blowing out, and why Digital Credit like $SATA and $SATS may compress against junk. They also discuss what Fannie Mae preferreds teach about underwriting dividends, why both mNAV frameworks break, and why $ASST trades like perpetual leverage on $BTC.
Here’s the latest with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, @Werkman, and @TimKotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:52 - The Binance Hack
02:57 - Triple C Spreads Blow Out
11:02 - Bitcoin Still Seen As Risk
14:30 - Digital Credit Spreads Will Compress
18:41 - The Fannie Mae Preferred Lesson
23:22 - Rethinking mNAV
33:00 - Premium Or Discount?
35:36 - Breaking Both Valuation Models
42:17 - The ATM Narrative Is Wrong
46:39 - Perpetual Leverage On Bitcoin
Matt Cole retweeted
There are times to be aggressive, and times to show restraint.
But we will always Strive to keep moving forward.
This is a marathon, and we will continue to do what we believe is best for delivering long-term, sustainable value for our shareholders.
Matt Cole retweeted
Strategy has acquired 811 $BTC and repurchased $208M of $STRC. As of 11/1/26, we hold 849,327 BTC and $4.9B of USD Assets. $MSTR strategy.com/press/strategy-…
See our 8-k for additional information: sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
Strive is perpetually short the dollar.
🔥 INSIGHT: Strive is perpetually short the dollar.
@Strive CEO @ColeMacro calls digital credit the best way to amplify $BTC's returns, since the Bitcoin stays unencumbered with no margin calls and no maturity date.
If you believe fiat will keep getting debased, he says on #CHAINREACTION, a perpetual short on the dollar is the ultimate trade for a Bitcoin maxi.
Matt Cole retweeted
One of the most advanced sessions at the Summit. I think we should turn it into a whole course for @PrincipledBus members…
Honored to moderate at @PrincipledBus Summit with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, and @ericyakes in Austin this week.
In his own keynote earlier, @ericyakes made the case that Bitcoin goes to $1M on its own, and the whole panel agrees.
The treasury thesis is an exciting accelerator, with its own opportunity and its own peril.
Which raises the question I'm still chewing on:
If it's even directionally right, @Strive and @Strategy become the economic equivalent of nuclear superpowers.
What does stewardship look like? And how do the rest of us hold them accountable?
Matt gave a substantive answer in the time we had: incentive alignment, promoting self-custody, pushing for Bitcoin to be spendable without capital gains, and X holding leaders accountable in real time.
A strong start, not the whole answer. That part we'll write together, as an industry and a community, in the years ahead.
I'm glad leaders like Matt, Eric, and Jeff are at the forefront
Grateful to all three, and to @PrincipledBus for putting $BTC and capital markets innovation on a capitalism mainstage.
Some questions are the point.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that October 31, the day of the Protestant Reformation, was also the day Satoshi released the Bitcoin white paper.
“The Bitcoin Reformation” by Tuur Demeester is a great article exploring the parallels between the two movements.
I recommend reading and reflecting on it.
casebitcoin.com/docs/TheBitc…
Matt Cole retweeted
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen a lot of chatter on X about capital market activities that were or were not taking place by ASST.
After really sitting with some of the takes and criticisms, I come back to this clip of @ColeMacro on The Hurdle Rate.
It is my opinion that there is a misalignment of time horizons between a lot of investors who own the ASST common stock (probably MSTR as well).
Digital credit = high time preference
Bitcoin = medium time preference
Amplified Bitcoin = lowest time preference
If ASST hits the common to acquire Bitcoin while Bitcoin isn’t even 15% above the 200 week moving average to take advantage of the mNAV premium they’ve earned, so be it. Over the last year, this team has proven time and time again that they execute better than anyone in the space and, candidly, communicate with the retail community better than anyone in the space.
If you’re an investor in ASST & MSTR, you’re on the frontier of a new asset class and an idea so novel that it truly has the ability to change mankind for the better. My opinion again: being critical of what takes place in a single week’s capital market activities is the epitome of high time preference and retail thinking. The grading scale should be based on the outperformance of Bitcoin over a long time horizon.
When Bitcoin moves again, ASST will be the fastest horse. IPOing SATS this close to the 200 week moving average has enabled ASST to have an amplification moat that the majority of the people invested in these companies still don’t fully appreciate.
$ASST $MSTR $SATA $STRC




















