Helping investors profit in the resources sector Many years experience commodity and equity research [email protected] #gold #copper #ASX #commodities
Sydney
Joined August 2013
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#Mining #Commodities
Updating this six years later
@DawesPoints Global Boom on track
Commodity prices over the next decade need to reflect:
1 3,400m in Asia improving living standards
2 High mine capacity utilisation rates in many resources
3 Low stocks of finished products
4 Inadequate inventory of undeveloped mining resources
#gold #copper #silver #lithium #LNG
$XAU $GLD $GDX $BHP
Market sentiment for Resources Stocks says:
Barry Dawes retweeted
🔴Iran updated analysis, October 25
I feel like Trump is inducing an internal coup in Iran: the regime’s technocrats against the IRGC. Lest we forget, President Pezeshkian is literally a heart surgeon!
Look at Tom Barrack’s comments the other day, he said ther regime itself is just religious, not inherently "evil," and that the only problem is the IRGC.
That distinction was telling.
After Khamenei’s death, the top IRGC brass effectively took over everything, and the technocrats alone were too weak to challenge them. But with outside backing, those technocrats and the national military might finally have the leverage to stage a coup, take the government back, and put things right.
Remember: the IRGC was empowered specifically to protect the regime and more importantly Khamenei himself, while the traditional national military (Artesh) was intentionally weakened. While the IRGC is thoroughly vetted and loyal at the top, you can still find potential defectors within Artesh, as its screening process was not as rigid.
Furthermore, the IRGC survived on looted oil revenues, but that lifeline is now practically cut off by legendary @SecScottBessent . Without that cash flow, the lower ranks have zero incentive to fight to the death, especially if @realDonaldTrump or external intelligence reveals that Mojtaba is dead (or better yet, was dead all along, and the top brass lied to manipulate them). That sense of ultimate betrayal could shatter their willingness to resist.
As for their only external backer, Russia, it's clear Moscow won't risk its overarching Ukraine deal just to bail out this collapsing regime.
On top of that, the US has reportedly warned the Iraqi government to keep the PMF (the regime's proxies) on a tight leash and prevent them from coming to the rescue in the event of a conflict.
We saw this playbook in Syria: once financial and military aid ( from Hezbollah and Russia) dried up, Assad fled, and his technocrat Prime Minister handed over the government.
So, I’m waiting for a targeted "peeling back" of the IRGC leadership, mid-ranks, and even lower echelons, accompanied by the systematic destruction of IRGC bases (both inside and outside the cities). All of this will likely go down at "Hour Zero" to leave them zero time to react, which explains the massive concentration of forces currently in the region.
Given how vast Iran is, total dominance at "Hour Zero" requires more than just U.S. bases in the south. With Washington's recent diplomatic outreach and deepening ties in the region, countries like Azerbaijan, nations in Central Asia (like Uzbakistan), and Iraq are likely to grant airspace access.
Over the past few months, every single time the regime tried to repair its air defense or radar systems, they were promptly destroyed again (that’s precisely what those sporadic strikes were all about). Right now, the IRGC is effectively blind and defenseless.
The fallout from the previous conflict and the widening rift between the IRGC and the government needed time to become crystal clear. Notice how Ghalibaf (who used to be the pivotal figure back during the MoU days) is completely sidelined from negotiations now. Ghalibaf was always an IRGC security man; today, U.S. overtures and proposals are directed squarely at Pezeshkian.
I expect the next war to be short. Strike and then wait for the dust to settle to fully measure the impact, and then again if necessary.
Next comes returning to the table and handing over the nuclear program. Once the regime is disarmed and defanged, the path will finally be clear for the Iranians to finish the revolution they started in January 8 and 9.
As for the timing, the major carrier strike groups haven't arrived yet; they are still on their way, pointing to a move likely right after the midterms. Until that day, President Trump will keep the IRGC in a state of constant, exhausting panic, wearing them down day by day with endless threats and mixed signals.
I’m not saying this is bound to happen, war is full of unpredictable variables that can change the course at any moment. But as someone who knows the regime well, I believe this trajectory is entirely plausible, and everything is aligning for it.
Iran will be free, sooner than you think!
#JavidShah
Barry Dawes retweeted
Asset allocation for the next decade.
Gold has priced itself out of its traditional markets.
Now has massive liquid overhang in Gold ETFs and Asian gold bars.
The Golden Fleece Sting now getting underway.
Gold has closed below US$4,000 again.
The surge in US Treasuries yields is now over.
No inflation
No US$ collapse
#GOLD
$XAU $GDX #XAU
Gold is oversold and gold bulls are pumping the resumption of the bull market.
They may be right.
Or not.
There are 220kt of available gold and mines produce ~3700tpa and ~1300tpa of gold is recycled.
At $4000 this is a market of ~$28tn.
At $5000 its ~$35tn
At $10,000 its ~$70tn.
At end 2024 it was ~$17tn so today there is ~$11tn of value increase for 2024 gold holders and in January 2026 there was ~$21tn `profit' sitting on the table.
The biggest gain ever in any single market.
What is the psychology of those holders, especially those who missed selling at the highs and locking in big gains and also those in weak currencies?
Will they be the ones to sell into the rallies?
Or will it be those latecomers in the ETFs who bought in high volumes near or at the top?
The last stages of that parabolic move were clearly market madness to experienced market professionals.
Parabolic peaks are indeed parabolic PEAKS and usually consume enormous market energy and also funds.
And usually show long periods of consolidation afterwards.
The Dec-Jan period was full of hucksters and charlatans bulling up the market to make that frenzied peak.
Look at every major previous peak in gold. Parabolic rises that took years afterwards to consolidate.
The US$ is moving higher and essentially all the major currencies have turned down to resume long term bear markets and had finished their `rallies' of the past year or so.
If you look at the debt and deficits of most European countries, the UK, Canada and Australia you see mostly socialist countries (+Japan) with a Wall of low coupon 2020 COVID Debt that only now is requiring refinancing at MUCH higher rates.
At the same time they are running 3-5% GDP Deficits and making no attempt to reduce them so the funding requirements are going to be huge.
Their bond markets are weakening and their currencies will follow them down.
A sovereign bond is currency with a coupon.
You don't hear much about these others because often the data isn't available in English.
Where will they get the funds from to buy these junk bonds and at what bond yield?
And all at the same time?
Also strangely, the demand for gold in these countries is miserable. Now why would that be?
The Conventional Wisdom is also that the US has the debt, the US$ is doomed and the stock market is overvalued. So gold must soar.
The conventional wisdom in markets is rarely found to be correct.
In great contrast it is ONLY the US that is making any changes.
9 consecutive months of declining YoY Outlays in the Budget while Receipts are rising at 5-6%pa.
A balanced Budget is in sight!
The US Mid Terms are now critical but the `redistricting' reversal of Blue State gerrymandering will see the Dems lose 10-15 seats and Voter ID will probably mean another 10 giving a strong GOP House and probably Senate.
DOGE's $1.5tnpa Fraud would then be an easy reduction target to reduce Outlays to that balanced Budget.
The `policy makers' at the Fed kept an inverted yield curve that ensured domestic and foreign funds flocked to T Bills and Treasury issued mostly T Bills as Treasuries matured.
~40% of Treasuries will mature by end 2027 and ~50% by end 2028.
The market is now totally underweight longer maturities because the Conventional Wisdom is that inflation will rise.
A total of ~$100bn (just ~0.3% of ALL Treasuries) are in the 10-12 year maturity. NO ONE owns them!
So the same hucksters and charlatans who told you gold was heading to the Moon were telling you a month ago that the 10 Yr yield would soar!
If no one owned them, who was going to sell their bonds?
And what has just happened (most clearly) in the 30 year bond yield?
Broke down from an upsloping wedge giving good downside targets!
Heresy!
Balanced Budget, falling bond yields and US$ higher!
Right from of your lying eyes!
So coming back to gold.
5000t supply from mines and scrap needs to be bought each year.
However traditional demand has fallen substantially.
At today's $130m/t it is too expensive for those traditional jewellery and Western investment markets.
WGC data shows CBs bought about 300t in 2025 with big purchases by Poland (only ~100 t more to buy), Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and then just rats and mice of 1-2 tonnes. China buys a few tonnes per month.
Will there be another Poland in 2027?
WGC data says only a net few tonnes bought to end April 26 after big sales by Turkey and Russia.
Which CBs bought the other ~580t no one seems to quite know!
China and India showed the collapse in jewellery and rise in investment demand in 2025 but each was net ~100t lower.
The net numbers in 2026 aren't too flash so far even though investment demand is supposed to be strong so lets wait and see.
The big growth in 2025 was ETFs but they NEED to do better in 2026 at >1,000t to absorb supply but the last WGC data said only 92t net Ytd by mid June.
Asian ETFs were big buyers in late 2025 and Jan 2026 but have been net sellers ever since.
What if ETFs turn sellers in 2026?
Who will be buying their 1000t?
The current discussion over NATO is showing the socialists in the EU are unreliable and the dopey UN and the partisan IMF aren't really the partners the US would want to talk about regarding a new Bretton Woods style Gold Standard!
So it means it will probably go it alone with a gold backed ~1% long T Bond.
Won't need to be much more than ~$200bn and it would be the standard for ALL sovereign bonds around the world would need to follow.
Gold revalued to just US$2500 would fine by me.
Can you imagine the uprisings already now underway in the highly taxed socialist states of Europe, Canada and Australia when they see no US Federal income tax up to $150k (9 States have no income tax) and corporate tax of 21% (and 15%) and no VAT/GST!
The `markets' will have to be reflecting all the above and the `policy makers' in so many countries (mostly unelected bureaucrats!) will have to REACT (not lead) and probably be run over.
We just need to look at the facts, think clearly, keep learning, protect ourselves and try to make money.
Heed the markets.
Barry Dawes retweeted
Gold is oversold and gold bulls are pumping the resumption of the bull market.
They may be right.
Or not.
There are 220kt of available gold and mines produce ~3700tpa and ~1300tpa of gold is recycled.
At $4000 this is a market of ~$28tn.
At $5000 its ~$35tn
At $10,000 its ~$70tn.
At end 2024 it was ~$17tn so today there is ~$11tn of value increase for 2024 gold holders and in January 2026 there was ~$21tn `profit' sitting on the table.
The biggest gain ever in any single market.
What is the psychology of those holders, especially those who missed selling at the highs and locking in big gains and also those in weak currencies?
Will they be the ones to sell into the rallies?
Or will it be those latecomers in the ETFs who bought in high volumes near or at the top?
The last stages of that parabolic move were clearly market madness to experienced market professionals.
Parabolic peaks are indeed parabolic PEAKS and usually consume enormous market energy and also funds.
And usually show long periods of consolidation afterwards.
The Dec-Jan period was full of hucksters and charlatans bulling up the market to make that frenzied peak.
Look at every major previous peak in gold. Parabolic rises that took years afterwards to consolidate.
The US$ is moving higher and essentially all the major currencies have turned down to resume long term bear markets and had finished their `rallies' of the past year or so.
If you look at the debt and deficits of most European countries, the UK, Canada and Australia you see mostly socialist countries (+Japan) with a Wall of low coupon 2020 COVID Debt that only now is requiring refinancing at MUCH higher rates.
At the same time they are running 3-5% GDP Deficits and making no attempt to reduce them so the funding requirements are going to be huge.
Their bond markets are weakening and their currencies will follow them down.
A sovereign bond is currency with a coupon.
You don't hear much about these others because often the data isn't available in English.
Where will they get the funds from to buy these junk bonds and at what bond yield?
And all at the same time?
Also strangely, the demand for gold in these countries is miserable. Now why would that be?
The Conventional Wisdom is also that the US has the debt, the US$ is doomed and the stock market is overvalued. So gold must soar.
The conventional wisdom in markets is rarely found to be correct.
In great contrast it is ONLY the US that is making any changes.
9 consecutive months of declining YoY Outlays in the Budget while Receipts are rising at 5-6%pa.
A balanced Budget is in sight!
The US Mid Terms are now critical but the `redistricting' reversal of Blue State gerrymandering will see the Dems lose 10-15 seats and Voter ID will probably mean another 10 giving a strong GOP House and probably Senate.
DOGE's $1.5tnpa Fraud would then be an easy reduction target to reduce Outlays to that balanced Budget.
The `policy makers' at the Fed kept an inverted yield curve that ensured domestic and foreign funds flocked to T Bills and Treasury issued mostly T Bills as Treasuries matured.
~40% of Treasuries will mature by end 2027 and ~50% by end 2028.
The market is now totally underweight longer maturities because the Conventional Wisdom is that inflation will rise.
A total of ~$100bn (just ~0.3% of ALL Treasuries) are in the 10-12 year maturity. NO ONE owns them!
So the same hucksters and charlatans who told you gold was heading to the Moon were telling you a month ago that the 10 Yr yield would soar!
If no one owned them, who was going to sell their bonds?
And what has just happened (most clearly) in the 30 year bond yield?
Broke down from an upsloping wedge giving good downside targets!
Heresy!
Balanced Budget, falling bond yields and US$ higher!
Right from of your lying eyes!
So coming back to gold.
5000t supply from mines and scrap needs to be bought each year.
However traditional demand has fallen substantially.
At today's $130m/t it is too expensive for those traditional jewellery and Western investment markets.
WGC data shows CBs bought about 300t in 2025 with big purchases by Poland (only ~100 t more to buy), Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and then just rats and mice of 1-2 tonnes. China buys a few tonnes per month.
Will there be another Poland in 2027?
WGC data says only a net few tonnes bought to end April 26 after big sales by Turkey and Russia.
Which CBs bought the other ~580t no one seems to quite know!
China and India showed the collapse in jewellery and rise in investment demand in 2025 but each was net ~100t lower.
The net numbers in 2026 aren't too flash so far even though investment demand is supposed to be strong so lets wait and see.
The big growth in 2025 was ETFs but they NEED to do better in 2026 at >1,000t to absorb supply but the last WGC data said only 92t net Ytd by mid June.
Asian ETFs were big buyers in late 2025 and Jan 2026 but have been net sellers ever since.
What if ETFs turn sellers in 2026?
Who will be buying their 1000t?
The current discussion over NATO is showing the socialists in the EU are unreliable and the dopey UN and the partisan IMF aren't really the partners the US would want to talk about regarding a new Bretton Woods style Gold Standard!
So it means it will probably go it alone with a gold backed ~1% long T Bond.
Won't need to be much more than ~$200bn and it would be the standard for ALL sovereign bonds around the world would need to follow.
Gold revalued to just US$2500 would fine by me.
Can you imagine the uprisings already now underway in the highly taxed socialist states of Europe, Canada and Australia when they see no US Federal income tax up to $150k (9 States have no income tax) and corporate tax of 21% (and 15%) and no VAT/GST!
The `markets' will have to be reflecting all the above and the `policy makers' in so many countries (mostly unelected bureaucrats!) will have to REACT (not lead) and probably be run over.
We just need to look at the facts, think clearly, keep learning, protect ourselves and try to make money.
Heed the markets.
Barry Dawes retweeted
How long before the Albanese Government falls?
Socialism is great until you run out of Other People's Money.
This chart showing the Jan 2026 high may be as significant as Aug 1971 inverted.
The strength of the US$, impending collapse of Euro, GBP and Yen indicate a new paradigm is here.
A big win by GOP in the Mid Terms is probable as Dems also collapse.
Big budget cuts coming.
#gold
See this Instagram post by @mrslandscapingadelaide instagram.com/reel/DcCf0VeT6…
New technology for your garden hose.
@elonmusk would love this simplicity and elegance.
#gardens
#roses
#hoses
#gardenhose
#lawns
How long before the Albanese Government falls?
Socialism is great until you run out of Other People's Money.
Barry Dawes retweeted
Well that escalated quickly..
$RML
Last 5.2c +25% odd, no sig. news, and heavy vol.
Trading on the NDQ has begun.
$RML Resolution Minerals
Preeetty unloved down here
Last 4.3c
Drilling campaign targeting gold / tungsten / antimony
It does have a MC of $100m, of which $10m is cash thereabouts..
Barry Dawes retweeted
Jimbo has to sell A$78.8bn bonds to refinance maturing debt in FY27.
And another A$69bn for the FY27 Deficit.
A$150bn at >5.20%.
And again for the next five years.
What happens if he can’t sell them all?
Socialism is wonderful until you run out of Other People’s Money.
Barry Dawes retweeted
Hayek and Keynes met in person, debated in print, and disagreed on nearly everything that matters in economics, and the consequences of that disagreement are still bleeding out of your tax bill today.
The clash crystallized in 1931. Hayek arrived at the London School of Economics from Vienna, the University of London had just given him a visiting position, and his four-part review of Keynes's Treatise on Money appeared in Economica. Keynes fired back. Both men were brilliant, both were prolific, and both understood that they were fighting over something fundamental: whether market prices carry real information, or whether a wise technocrat with a budget deficit can simply override them. Hayek said prices are signals produced by millions of individual decisions that no single mind can replicate. Keynes said the economy is a machine and the state can tune the throttle. One of these positions respects human knowledge. The other assumes the government knows your business better than you do.
The irony Keynes fans never want to confront: Keynes himself, by 1946, was alarmed at where Keynesian policy was heading. He told Henry Clay at the Bank of England that he hoped markets would reassert themselves before his own ideas "did too much damage." He died that April. His followers immediately ignored the warning and spent the next three decades engineering the stagflation of the 1970s, the Nixon wage-price controls of 1971, and the general wreckage that Hayek had predicted with embarrassing precision in 1931.
Hayek won the Nobel in 1974. The prize committee gave it to him alongside Gunnar Myrdal, a committed social democrat, because they lacked the nerve to award a free market thinker alone. Even in Stockholm, the state needs a security blanket.
The deeper issue is moral, not just technical. Every time a government "stimulates" the economy, it does so by extracting resources from producers through taxation or debasing the currency through credit expansion. The state is not a benevolent engineer: it is an institution that compels compliance at gunpoint, then calls the wealth they exctacted "revenue." The pretense of knowledge is not merely an intellectual error, but the philosophical license for coercion. Every stimulus package passed since 2008 proves the lesson is still being refused.
Barry Dawes retweeted
"Por ejemplo, yo iba con una motosierra y dije que iba a bajar el gasto público. Y de hecho, bajé el gasto público en términos reales, 30%. Es más, decían que el primer año yo iba a alcanzar el equilibrio fiscal y decían que era una locura, que ni de casualidad iba a poder hacerlo a lo largo de todo el mandato, y lo logramos en el primer mes. A los seis meses cerramos el déficit cuasi fiscal. Con lo cual hicimos un ajuste de 15 puntos del PBI en seis meses. Y a eso, además, bajamos tres puntos de impuestos, algo que no hizo nadie en la Argentina. Bajamos cerca de 20 impuestos y le devolvimos a los argentinos tres puntos del PBI. Eso implicó devolverle a los argentinos 100.000 millones de dólares. Por eso la pobreza en la frecuencia mensual, cuando sinceramos las variables, fue del 57% y hoy está en el 29%. Es decir, sacamos 28 puntos porcentuales de la población de la pobreza. Es decir, sacamos 14 millones de argentinos de la pobreza."
Demand from CBs & ETFs is supposed to be >2,000t in 2026 to offset losses from jewelry in absorbing supply of ~3,700t new mine and ~1,300t `scrap'.
Neither look like achieving anywhere near that.
Both are likely to be net sellers in 2026.
Parabolic peaks are parabolic PEAKS
Barry Dawes retweeted
US public debt has gone from roughly a third of GDP in 1970 to over 120% today, owed entirely in conventional bonds: pure promises.
UBS's family office clients now rate a debt crisis their top five-year concern, up from 31% to 56%.
The difference between a gold-backed bond and a conventional one is the difference between a promise and a pledge.
Gold is oversold and gold bulls are pumping the resumption of the bull market.
They may be right.
Or not.
There are 220kt of available gold and mines produce ~3700tpa and ~1300tpa of gold is recycled.
At $4000 this is a market of ~$28tn.
At $5000 its ~$35tn
At $10,000 its ~$70tn.
At end 2024 it was ~$17tn so today there is ~$11tn of value increase for 2024 gold holders and in January 2026 there was ~$21tn `profit' sitting on the table.
The biggest gain ever in any single market.
What is the psychology of those holders, especially those who missed selling at the highs and locking in big gains and also those in weak currencies?
Will they be the ones to sell into the rallies?
Or will it be those latecomers in the ETFs who bought in high volumes near or at the top?
The last stages of that parabolic move were clearly market madness to experienced market professionals.
Parabolic peaks are indeed parabolic PEAKS and usually consume enormous market energy and also funds.
And usually show long periods of consolidation afterwards.
The Dec-Jan period was full of hucksters and charlatans bulling up the market to make that frenzied peak.
Look at every major previous peak in gold. Parabolic rises that took years afterwards to consolidate.
The US$ is moving higher and essentially all the major currencies have turned down to resume long term bear markets and had finished their `rallies' of the past year or so.
If you look at the debt and deficits of most European countries, the UK, Canada and Australia you see mostly socialist countries (+Japan) with a Wall of low coupon 2020 COVID Debt that only now is requiring refinancing at MUCH higher rates.
At the same time they are running 3-5% GDP Deficits and making no attempt to reduce them so the funding requirements are going to be huge.
Their bond markets are weakening and their currencies will follow them down.
A sovereign bond is currency with a coupon.
You don't hear much about these others because often the data isn't available in English.
Where will they get the funds from to buy these junk bonds and at what bond yield?
And all at the same time?
Also strangely, the demand for gold in these countries is miserable. Now why would that be?
The Conventional Wisdom is also that the US has the debt, the US$ is doomed and the stock market is overvalued. So gold must soar.
The conventional wisdom in markets is rarely found to be correct.
In great contrast it is ONLY the US that is making any changes.
9 consecutive months of declining YoY Outlays in the Budget while Receipts are rising at 5-6%pa.
A balanced Budget is in sight!
The US Mid Terms are now critical but the `redistricting' reversal of Blue State gerrymandering will see the Dems lose 10-15 seats and Voter ID will probably mean another 10 giving a strong GOP House and probably Senate.
DOGE's $1.5tnpa Fraud would then be an easy reduction target to reduce Outlays to that balanced Budget.
The `policy makers' at the Fed kept an inverted yield curve that ensured domestic and foreign funds flocked to T Bills and Treasury issued mostly T Bills as Treasuries matured.
~40% of Treasuries will mature by end 2027 and ~50% by end 2028.
The market is now totally underweight longer maturities because the Conventional Wisdom is that inflation will rise.
A total of ~$100bn (just ~0.3% of ALL Treasuries) are in the 10-12 year maturity. NO ONE owns them!
So the same hucksters and charlatans who told you gold was heading to the Moon were telling you a month ago that the 10 Yr yield would soar!
If no one owned them, who was going to sell their bonds?
And what has just happened (most clearly) in the 30 year bond yield?
Broke down from an upsloping wedge giving good downside targets!
Heresy!
Balanced Budget, falling bond yields and US$ higher!
Right from of your lying eyes!
So coming back to gold.
5000t supply from mines and scrap needs to be bought each year.
However traditional demand has fallen substantially.
At today's $130m/t it is too expensive for those traditional jewellery and Western investment markets.
WGC data shows CBs bought about 300t in 2025 with big purchases by Poland (only ~100 t more to buy), Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and then just rats and mice of 1-2 tonnes. China buys a few tonnes per month.
Will there be another Poland in 2027?
WGC data says only a net few tonnes bought to end April 26 after big sales by Turkey and Russia.
Which CBs bought the other ~580t no one seems to quite know!
China and India showed the collapse in jewellery and rise in investment demand in 2025 but each was net ~100t lower.
The net numbers in 2026 aren't too flash so far even though investment demand is supposed to be strong so lets wait and see.
The big growth in 2025 was ETFs but they NEED to do better in 2026 at >1,000t to absorb supply but the last WGC data said only 92t net Ytd by mid June.
Asian ETFs were big buyers in late 2025 and Jan 2026 but have been net sellers ever since.
What if ETFs turn sellers in 2026?
Who will be buying their 1000t?
The current discussion over NATO is showing the socialists in the EU are unreliable and the dopey UN and the partisan IMF aren't really the partners the US would want to talk about regarding a new Bretton Woods style Gold Standard!
So it means it will probably go it alone with a gold backed ~1% long T Bond.
Won't need to be much more than ~$200bn and it would be the standard for ALL sovereign bonds around the world would need to follow.
Gold revalued to just US$2500 would fine by me.
Can you imagine the uprisings already now underway in the highly taxed socialist states of Europe, Canada and Australia when they see no US Federal income tax up to $150k (9 States have no income tax) and corporate tax of 21% (and 15%) and no VAT/GST!
The `markets' will have to be reflecting all the above and the `policy makers' in so many countries (mostly unelected bureaucrats!) will have to REACT (not lead) and probably be run over.
We just need to look at the facts, think clearly, keep learning, protect ourselves and try to make money.
Heed the markets.
At the same time all the other features
Declining US$
Collapsing bond markets
BRICS
Inflation
Dedollarisation
were simply not true.
US has Budget Repair and a Big Beautiful Bond Rally.
Watch non US currencies and their bonds suffer.
The Great Gold Hoax is over.
#gold
Elon,
I am trying to get a very important message through.
No one is interested.
The Left just bows to authority.
Look at the data!
Economics 101 says you need to invest before you consume.
And yes, @AlboMP is indeed a simple man.
Where in Jimbo's Faulty Budget is there any investment outside of the NET ZERO boondoggles?
A$830bn in consumption.
82% of all personal income tax is GIVEN to someone else as Social Security and Welfare (look at the data!!).
Most economists are from the Bureaucracy which is brought up on daft things like equity and MMT.
Never trained to even think what the markets are saying and doing.
The US has Budget Repair underway and should have a balanced Budget by end 2027 (look at the data!).
How many `respected economists' are telling you that!
US rates are likely to decline.
Wait until the US confirms NO personal income tax up to ~US$150,000. Australia completely uncompetitive.
High taxing Europe, UK and Australia all have this low coupon COVID debt to refinance and are still running big budget deficits.
This massive supply of junk government paper will not be easy to fund without big rises in rates.
Who will be buying it?
Interest rates aren't about ìnflation'.
It will be the supply of bond debt that forces interest rates up and CBs won't be able to anything about it.
And while running a A$70bn deficit (look at the data!!) the ALP's `union donors' are now wrecking Australia's iron ore and export industries which pay royalties and taxes.
What will happen if Jimbo can't sell 50% (A$75bn -A$35bn Deficit and A$40bn old debt) of bonds by end December while running his huge deficit?
Will probably have to cut spending!!
Imagine going out to borrow another A$75bn in the 6 mths to June 2027 when your Budget is in complete tatters.
And he has to do this at A$150bnpa for the next five years!!
50% of Australia's A$900bn debt is already owned by foreigners and 22% by the RBA.
Who will buy the bonds of liars and imbeciles?
This issue totally dwarfs the CGT and NG matters.
All this should be obvious by December.
And remember it was the genius of Hawke and Keating (and Swan) that brought on the PRRT that ALP greed swapped offshore royalties for higher taxes.
Do we get to sue these people and their advisers who deprived Australia of billions in royalties?
The dopey union-funded Australia Institute wants to make up for Keating's PRRT errors by making our offshore LNG projects uncompetitive by adding and export tax.
Dumb and dumber!
Those 60,000 people supporting ON understand many of these issues.
It appears most don't.
I suggest everyone gets off their arses and do some thinking.
Help!
@elonmusk
