StreetAccount’s Bull/Bear Talking Points for Week-ended 30-Oct:
🐻 Bearish talking points
• Big tech pressured despite largely upbeat AI takeaways with softness in other segments at both Google and Amazon and some scrutiny surrounding Microsoft's planned $25B+ debt sale. Elevated expectations also highlighted. Core businesses funding for AI buildout under some scrutiny in big tech earnings with focus on Google Search and Amazon advertising slowdowns (stock weakness another potential stumbling block). Tech earnings-driven pullbacks not limited to hyperscalers with Intel, ServiceNow, Fortinet, Sandisk, Seagate, Twilio, Reddit and Roblox some notable decliners. Input cost pressures across a range of industries with diesel/commodities, logistics and memory all flagged. Signs of bifurcated consumer and continued ramp in affordability pressures. Housing and repair/remodel weakness still an earnings/macro theme, particularly amid elevated rate backdrop. Resumption of kinetic activity in the Middle East following midterm elections still the consensus as US reportedly told several Gulf nations to prepare for a possible "short, intense" campaign against Iran. No uptick in 2026 hyperscaler capex guidance, a key bullish driver for the AI picks-and-shovels trade, while also thoughts capex discipline may be needed to reverse some of the negative hyperscaler sentiment.
🐂 Bullish talking points
• AI trade bounced over first three days of week with funding overhang dampened (Meta, SpaceX, Broadcom), Anthropic S-1 and Oracle analyst day. Hyperscaler cloud growth and backlogs highlighted strong AI demand and companies all noted demand still exceeds available capacity. AI-driven power and grid buildout continued to ramp, highlighted by the likes of GE Vernova, Vertiv, Hubbell, AEP and Baker Hughes. Resilient consumer backdrop in focus with big consumer confidence beat and good Q3 metrics/Oct commentary from Visa and Mastercard. Rotation > broad risk off as late-week tech pressure accompanied by better breadth. Strong deal and capital return activity, including report of potential $80B+ acquisition of Lumentum by Marvell. Middle East diplomacy push kept de-escalation path open despite expectations for resumption of kinetic activity. Fed delivered a bit less of the "hawkish hold" than some expected, with focus on Warsh acknowledgement of tighter financial conditions, belief economy not running too hot, and dissent composition.
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