Entrepreneur | I show bettors how to profit off of sportsbooks using market inefficiencies, Built software to find +EV bets automatically
5-Day Free Trial👉
Joined March 2013
- Tweets84.2K
- Following2.2K
- Followers109K
- Likes67K
Pinned Tweet
The final tally is in....
I made $14,718 as a part time sports bettor in the month of November.
The best part is, I spend 1-2 hours a day placing bets.
Want to know my process? Here's a thread on exactly how I do it....
A 🧵 [🔖bookmark for later]
Crazy with how many updates have been rolling out.
You request updates, we ship.
🚨 Upside Tools 10/26 Update 🔥
A TON of new features and improvements just dropped:
🔥 Betr Picks promos are LIVE! Boost, Edge, Anchor & Nuke picks now available on the EV Sniper
📊 NEW sorting features across Optimizer, EV Sniper & Fantasy Props, including liquidity, Kelly & sportsbook filters
🎯 Race to Place now shows sportsbook weights & improved personalized alerts
🏀 Expanded NBA, NHL, NFL & CFB live betting markets across more sportsbooks
📈 NEW props on Novig, Polymarket & PrizePicks, including NBA Cup futures, steals + blocks & more
⚡ 20 weight presets, improved saved views & smarter bet links across mobile and desktop
🛠️ Major live odds accuracy fixes, faster updates & improved sportsbook reliability
Courtside LONGSHOT +1494🎯
$10 -> $159💣
50% profit boost bonus on this. Kyrie Irving under 21.5 points at -124, while ProphetX has the same under at -209....
If you don't have Courtside yet, be sure to download using my refer a friend code "UPSIDE" for a $100 in free play when spending $10.
Link to tail in Replies 👇
Link to tail: upside.tools/go/i5gmjm
Play #1 - Kyrie Irving UNDER 21.5 Points (-124): taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools:
Here's a video on growing a small bankroll with daily promos: youtu.be/f9v6bCKWQao
Honest read on this leg: it leans on one exchange. ProphetX has Kyrie under 21.5 at -209, which devigs to 59.6%, but DraftKings and Hard Rock price the same line near 52%. Courtside's -124 needs 55.4%, so the 50% boost is doing a lot of the work here.
$100 -> $974💣
NBA only Parlay.
Jaime Jaquez under 10.5 rebounds plus assists at -130, while Novig sits at -163....
If you don't have Courtside yet, be sure to download using my refer a friend code "UPSIDE" for a $100 in free play when spending $10.
Link to tail in Replies 👇
Link to tail: upside.tools/go/1p0up3
Play #1 - Jaime Jaquez Jr. UNDER 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130): taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools:
Here's a video on finding the sharpest sportsbooks: youtu.be/m3X7oBXQcl4
Novig and ProphetX both price Jaquez's under 10.5 rebounds plus assists around -164, with $615 and $242 sitting on it. Devig them and the under lands at 58.8% and 58.6%. Courtside is dealing -130, which only needs 56.5%. Most retail books hang it near -130 too, so the exchanges are where this edge shows up.
Betr 6X🎯
Nuke promo on William Contreras over 1.5 total bases, paired with Tanner McKee over 197.5 passing yards.
Link to tail in Replies 👇
Link to tail: upside.tools/go/lmdt7v
Play #1 - William Contreras OVER 1.5 Total Bases: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Sniper: upside.tools/ev-sniper:
Here's a video on getting the most out of promos: youtu.be/7oEc_dsN8-w
The Nuke promo pays this 2 pick at +500. The market makes Contreras over 1.5 total bases about a 37.7% shot, with Kalshi and Novig both near 37.8%. Pair that with McKee over 197.5 at 55.3% and the slip hits about 20.8% of the time, while +500 only needs 16.7%. That's roughly a 25% edge on the entry.
Matt Downs retweeted
HI GUYS I'M LIVE!!!
LET'S BUILD SLIPS FOR TONIGHT!!!
twitch.tv/upside_tools
CASHED✅ PrizePicks 6X, free on the TL.
47 on a 23.5 line. 27 on a 51.5 line. 5 on a 7.5 line. Not even close.
Anyone tail this one?
Link to tail: upside.tools/go/77kadv
Play #1 - LeBron James UNDER 7.5 Assists: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools:
Here's a video on finding sharp player props: youtu.be/FWuP-dXl_jc
Nearly the whole market lands above the bar on LeBron's under 7.5 assists. ProphetX devigs it to 59.2%, Kalshi to 58.0% and FanDuel to 57.2%, with Pinnacle at 55.0%. A 6 pick Flex on PrizePicks needs 54.2% a leg at -119, so we're taking the side the books already favor. A whale also put $1.6k on it at -135.
The LeBron under came straight off the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer. Try it free for 5 days: upside.tools/?via=matt&utm_s…
Taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools
Most books hang Hollywood Brown at 11.5 receiving yards, priced as a 50/50 coin flip. PrizePicks gives us 10.5, a full yard lower on the over. ProphetX trades that exact 10.5 at -161 ($400 on it), good for 55.5% after the vig, and a 6 pick Flex only needs 54.2% a leg at -119.
Yes, 1 yard makes a difference for someone who might only see the ball once.
I wanted to find out why so many bettors beat the closing line and still lose money over a large sample size.
So I went back through 252,000+ graded player props, 100,000+ bets that beat a sportsbook's closing number, every Novig and ProphetX trade since the summer, and 1,790 of my own prop bets.
Here is what your CLV isn't telling you 🧵👇
9th. So.....What To Do With This Data
Here is exactly how I bet props now....
1. Never let only sportsbooks price an over. If Novig or Kalshi isn't on the line, knock about 3% off the EV the board shows (more on NFL rushing, almost nothing on NHL).
2. Let the exchanges set your fair price. Matt's Prop Weights on @UpsideTools put about 60% of the weight on Novig, Kalshi and ProphetX for exactly this reason.
3. Check the money behind the exchange price. If almost nothing has traded, treat it like one more sportsbook.
4. Grade your CLV against Novig or Kalshi's close, not whatever closing line your tracker defaults to.
5. Judge yourself over thousands of bets, not a bad weekend.
To set it up:
1. Open the +EV Sniper or the Optimizer on upside.tools
2. Click Filters
3. Next to Fair value, click Weights, pick Matt's Prop Weights, then Apply
4. Under Required books, pick Novig or Kalshi when you're betting overs
5. Raise Min sportsbooks to 3 or more, then Apply filters
Every EV on the board is then measured against a fair price that's mostly exchange money.
Taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Sniper: upside.tools/ev-sniper
10th. Summarized
The closing line is still the best scoreboard in sports betting. You just have to know whose close you're reading.
1. Sportsbooks overprice overs by 1 to 2 points, worst on NFL rushing, NBA threes and MLB hits. NHL is the exception.
2. Beating a sportsbook's close on an over was only 33% real. Beating Novig's close on an over was 142%.
3. Exchange prices count once real money is in. $1,000+ traded: 133% on ProphetX, 134% on Novig. Thin ProphetX markets were about 50%.
4. On game lines the leader changes by sport. Novig in MLB, Polymarket in the NHL, Polymarket and FanDuel tied in the NBA, ProphetX in college football. NFL needs more games.
5. A real 3% edge is still down 17% of the time after 1,000 bets.
Both of my weight presets already lean on the exchanges for all of this. They're live as Matt's Prop Weights and Matt's Game Line Weights on @UpsideTools at upside.tools
If you found this helpful, shoot me a follow. I'll run the NFL numbers again once the season gives me enough games.
