MORE: Kremlin officials have consistently rejected ceasefire proposals — both for a partial and complete ceasefire that the US and Ukraine have proposed — while Ukrainian officials have consistently reiterated their willingness for such a ceasefire. Peskov’s and Ushakov’s recent statements indicate that the Kremlin’s position heading into the upcoming trilateral talks remains to reject ceasefire proposals. Furthermore, the Kremlin’s current negotiating position on the war in Ukraine continues to include Moscow’s longstanding demand from before the full-scale invasion that NATO change its charter and roll back its membership to NATO’s former 1997 borders.

Arabian Peninsula 🧵(1/3): The Houthis claimed that they struck the world’s largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia on October 27 as part of their campaign against Saudi Arabia. ISW-CTP cannot verify the Houthis’ claim at the time of this update, however. The Houthis claimed that they struck the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile on October 27 for the first time in the 2026 fighting. The Houthis had previously refrained from targeting Saudi Arabia’s most significant oil facilities in this current conflict and may have targeted Ras Tanura to increase pressure on Saudi Arabia to compel it to concede to Houthi demands, following reports that Saudi Arabia and the Houthis failed to arrive at a ceasefire agreement during negotiations in Iran on October 26. An Iranian source told Emirati media on October 27 that the Houthis conditioned any ceasefire agreement on Saudi Arabia lifting its blockade of Houthi-controlled airports, which Saudi Arabia presumably rejected. The Houthis separately claimed to have struck King Khalid Air Base, Abha International Airport, and Najran International Airport in Saudi Arabia in addition to the Saudi Defense Ministry headquarters in Riyadh on October 27. The Saudi Joint Forces Command reported that Saudi air defenses intercepted five ballistic missiles and four drones over Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, on October 27.

MORE: Putin reportedly provided Stubb and Store with his assessment of the current situation in Ukraine and explained the war’s “root causes,” the Kremlin’s shorthand for Russia’s maximalist war demands that include a puppet regime in Ukraine and retrograding the membership of NATO states that joined the alliance since 1997 — effectively granting Russia a veto over NATO internal policies and curtailing the sovereignty of many European states to choose to join alliances. Putin also reportedly told Stubb and Store that a peace agreement must recognize the “realities on the ground,” another Russian rhetorical line used to demand the recognition of occupied Ukrainian territory as part of Russia as a precondition to any ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine. A source close to the Kremlin claimed that Putin’s statement about “ground realities” signifies that Russia would not compromise on its goal of seizing all of Donbas. Putin has repeatedly outlined Russia’s demands that extend far beyond Ukraine’s Fortress Belt and Donetsk Oblast and may include the entire territory of Ukraine.

NEW: Iran likely used its meeting with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey to pressure the trio of countries to help forge a US-Iran deal that would achieve key Iranian objectives. Iran is presumably attempting to exploit regional concerns that renewed fighting and US-Iran tensions could embroil regional countries in the future and is aiming to portray the United States as the source of the problem. Other Key Takeaways: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias almost certainly used two drones to surveil the US Embassy in Baghdad on October 27 in order to threaten and deter the United States from striking Iran. The militias’ decision to use drones is more subtle than previous militia threats and is likely a response to the changing political situation in Iraq and Iranian preferences. The Houthis are attempting to deter Egypt from furnishing Saudi Arabia with defensive military support following Egypt’s parliament approval of “purely defensive” military assistance to Saudi Arabia, including Egyptian forces that will remain in Saudi territory and not assist in Saudi attacks on Houthi targets, on October 26.

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin used his October 27 call with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store to reiterate Moscow’s longstanding demands in Ukraine and rearticulate Moscow’s claims that NATO expansion is among the “root causes” of the war. Putin also stated that “root causes” must be resolved as preconditions for any future peace negotiations. Other Key Takeaways: Russia and Ukraine began observing a limited ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, on October 27 to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries and evacuate civilians from the settlement. Both sides are reportedly abiding by the ceasefire terms as of this writing. It remains unclear how the Russian authorities will treat Ukrainians evacuated from Oleshky and whether Russian occupation authorities will provide the residents a legitimate and duress-free choice to return to Ukrainian government-controlled Ukraine. The Russian 26th Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District) operating in the Kupyansk direction is reportedly planning to disband several platoons to create an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) company. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on October 27. Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles and 280 drones against Ukraine overnight.

NEW: People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) aircraft carrier Liaoning sailed near the Basilan Strait, located within the Philippine archipelago, on October 22. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) appears to be increasing its military activity around the Philippines to intimidate Manila to reduce its presence in the South China Sea and possibly accede to PRC territorial claims. Liaoning’s movements likely simulated breaking through the first island chain and possibly isolating the Philippines or Taiwan during a conflict. (1/2) Other Key Takeaway: The PRC is continuing to portray the United States as an aggressive hegemon in the space domain and suggesting that US space weapons development could result in a global arms race. The PRC is continuing to develop its own space capabilities, however, particularly counterspace and dual-use assets that could be used against US and allied weapons systems in a future conflict.