WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
Tampa, FL
Joined November 2012
- Tweets45K
- Following9.6K
- Followers61.8K
- Likes83K
I think I’ve figured out what’s going on on #Florida’s East Coast this week…
There’s a debate in the meteorology/ climate community about how to visualize the 2026 El Niño. One method subtracts recent tropical ocean warming mainly due to climate change (relative RONI index) and one that simply visualizes the event with no correction.
So how does 2026’s El Niño compare with 1997 after accounting for warmer tropical oceans? Bottom line: 2026 is still significantly stronger than 1997.
For these October 14–20 maps, a RONI-style adjustment subtracts the tropical-average SST anomaly: 0.29°C in 1997 and 1.14°C in 2026.
Niño 3.4 changes from:
• 1997: +2.13°C → +1.85°C
• 2026: +3.34°C → +2.21°C
2026 remains warmer but its lead shrinks from 1.21°C to 0.36°C after adjusting for tropical-ocean warmth.
ENSO region numbers to follow… 🧵 1/
I agree with… myself :)
In Florida, @WeatherProf vividly recalls being on air during a devastating tornado outbreak in February 1998 during an El Niño that brought an “extremely hectic” and “very unusual” winter to the state.
He's expecting another exceptionally active winter this time.
That forcing is heading east. Busy now in the SW, but it very well may move to the SE in a couple-few weeks.
This is what I've been warning about for a few days now. When you have a prolonged easterly fetch - in distance and in time - with Fall full or new moon - The flooding on Florida's East Coast is always worse than one might expect, even with no real tropical storm. (this is weak low pressure with a tight pressure gradient - in place for days on end) We have another few high tide cycles to go of this!
Wow. I lived here for 5 years. Don’t think I ever saw the water that far into downtown.
Downtown West Palm Beach this morning. Tomorrow morning’s high tide is about 9:30 am. Could be a floody commute. #kingtides
Another threat for #flooding and severe weather in SoCal and the Deep SW. El Niño ramping up, with a big storm set to slam into the area over the weekend. 2 surges of moisture. One Friday from T.S. #Vance. But the big event is Sunday with atmospheric water vapor at 300-400%, up near 5+ standard deviations above the mean. Widespread 2-4” (Isolated higher amounts) on the hills/ mountains which will run off into dry/ desert areas and likely cause Flash #Flood issues.
Just the beginning of significant coastal flooding for several high tide cycles.
🚨🌊 POWERFUL KING TIDE CURRENTS RUSH THROUGH JUPITER INLET INTO LOXAHATCHEE RIVER, FLORIDA!
📍 Jupiter, Florida | October 25, 2026
🌊 Incredible footage captures fast-moving ocean water rushing through Jupiter Inlet and pouring into the Loxahatchee River!
⚠️ Elevated king tides, persistent onshore winds, and rough Atlantic surf are combining to create powerful tidal currents as water surges inland through the inlet.
🚨 The force of the incoming water is impressive, highlighting the strength of this coastal event across South Florida!
🎥 Chicago & Midwest Storm Chasers is on location capturing the impacts firsthand!
📩 Video Licensing: Severe Studios — [email protected]
#JupiterFlorida #JupiterInlet #LoxahatcheeRiver #KingTide #CoastalFlooding #FloridaWeather #StormChasing #ExtremeWeather #ChicagoMidwestStormChasers
Jeff Berardelli retweeted
This is going to be a generational winter for coastal flooding and erosion along California’s coast.
A marine heatwave plus a Kelvin Wave from El Niño have already rapidly raised water levels in recent weeks. Combined with king tides this winter, it’s likely every coastal city from the Bay Area to SoCal will see their highest water levels in recorded history.
Did you know Florida’s Sea Level has varied ~480 Feet over the past 500K years?! It’s true!
Due to ice ages, every 100,000+ years ice freezes and melts in natural cycles driven by Earth’s oscillating Orbit & Tilt and the changes in absorbed sun. This causes huge swings in sea level. 400K years ago, when the ice caps melted, water rushed into the ocean raising sea level 52 feet higher than today - flooding Florida. Then 24K years ago, with water trapped in miles of frozen ice in the ice caps, the sea was 427 feet lower. Florida was 2X its current size and to hit the beach you’d have to walk 130 miles west of #Tampa Bay! This back and forth is why Florida’s bedrock is made from limestone. At many points in its history #Florida was a shallow sea and #coral reef. 🪸
We call this a “Severe Clear Alert”!
While it’s agonizing for us meteorologists, I am happy for the rest of you 🤣 Enjoy the quiet pattern, it will ratchet up again in November. #elnino
Let’s zoom into the El Niño regions and see how they compare to 1997 (the event of record). This event is not only remarkably ahead, it’s also weighted further east!
Big impacts coming to the US and Globe this winter! #elnino
‼️ Significant Coastal Flooding Florida East Coast starting later Sunday through Wednesday. A prolonged fetch of strong east wind and large waves will batter the #Florida East Coast for days. Unfortunately there is a new moon with exaggerated tides. This means 2-3 feet of coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide, on several high tide cycles! If your neighborhood is lowlying on Florida’s East Coast from #miami to #ftlauderdale #CapeCanaveral #flood
Very odd… very early, if it happens.
Would prefer to see this in December. Not sure what it would mean in terms of real weather. Extreme “cool” invasion somewhere lol
Wow! Latest ECMWF 12z is going all out in the stratosphere, now forecasting an actual Stratospheric Warming event with a wind reversal, making it an official SSW event.
It will likely not remain at this, as this would be an unprecedented event, and the model trend map shows quite a spread between the last runs. But even seeing this suggested at this time is really insane.
All the maps are available in my Polar Vortex hub (link in the comments)
@judah47
I have seen you noticed the 12z ECM, but did you know it also has a proper reversal? 😁
“Highest on record: The modelled urban area mortality toll for this year’s summer is
the highest in the 26 years since 2000, far in excess of the next highest in 2022
(about 29,000) and 2003 (about 28,000).” 2/
Of the estimated 50K deaths, 2/3rds were caused by carbon pollution driven warming. Link to papers… imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publ…
