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What’s Happening in the AI Trade: Anthropic IPO All-Day Livestream teapawt.org/i/broadcasts/2AMWlPqZJ…

NO CHARTS. NO SPREADSHEETS. CHRIS CAMILLO BEAT THE MARKET BY WATCHING PEOPLE @ChrisCamillo The Unknown Market Wizard and Dumb Money co-founder is live with us now, reading the crowd on the Anthropic IPO. Two blocks, back to back. Don't miss this one.

Elon Musk says SpaceX's Q4 revenue will be up something like 70% from the Q3, and he still sees annualized revenue of about $500 billion in December 2027.

JIM OSMAN SAYS: “Can a company growing at 1,300% still be a bad investment? Yes.” “Growth is a measure of how quickly revenue is increasing. It doesn’t tell you what price you’re paying, how durable that growth is, or how much capital it takes to generate it.” @EdgeCGroup

NEXT UP ON THE STREAM: JIM OSMAN The founder and chief vision officer of The Edge @EdgeCGroup is live with us now with a special-situations look at the Anthropic IPO.

SHAY BOLOOR SAYS ANTHROPIC CAN’T OVERCOME CHATGPT’S CONSUMER MINDSHARE “I think the mindshare of ‘I’ll ChatGPT this’ as a verb is something that Anthropic can never overcome.” “If you’re in frontier model, you have to win the consumer lens eventually. I think enterprises are going to dry up because the open models will get to a certain point.” On why it matters: “Agentic AI will take off. Everyone have a personal assistant... the stickiness is going to be there because people want these models to know what they do on a daily basis" @StockSavvyShay

Microsoft is winding down its deal to rent AI cloud capacity from Oracle $ORCL, according to Bloomberg. Microsoft chose not to renew parts of the agreement because the capacity ran on older-generation Nvidia chips that no longer met its specifications, and it has been turning off the rented infrastructure in recent months. Oracle says demand for its AI infrastructure remains strong, including for older GPUs. Oracle shares swung from a 1% gain to as much as a 4.9% loss after the report.

“If making money was easy, everybody would be a millionaire... So if the game feels hard, that’s because it is and it’s supposed to be.” - @BrianFeroldi

BRIAN FEROLDI SAYS ANTHROPIC’S FIRST EARNINGS REPORT WILL BE ITS “FIRST TRUE TEST” AS A PUBLIC COMPANY On IPOs in general: “IPOs are a graveyard for burning shareholder capital. The odds are stacked against an IPO being a stock that outperforms over the long term.” On what he’s watching: “One thing we don’t know about this company, are they going to issue guidance?... One of the most important jobs for management to do is to set expectations and deliver on those expectations.” On the first report: “If a company comes out and misses on its very first earnings reports, boy, is that a bad sign.” @BrianFeroldi says he expects Anthropic’s first report in late January or early February, and says that’s when investors will learn whether management lives up to its “beat and raise” culture

BRIAN FEROLDI SAYS HE WAITS A YEAR AFTER AN IPO BEFORE BUYING: “When a company goes from private to public, all of a sudden it has a quarterly number over its head... the culture of the company changes.” He wants to see a “beat and raise culture” first @BrianFeroldi

NEXT UP ON THE STREAM: BRIAN FEROLDI The financial educator and author is live with us now to break down how a long-term investor reads an IPO day. Shoutout @BrianFeroldi

DAN NILES SAYS ANTHROPIC WILL GET ITS IPO DONE “COME HELL OR HIGH WATER” “They have to go public... It’s just going to be at what price? And I think they’re going to raise a lot less.” @DanielTNiles

DAN NILES SAYS: “This is a very, very challenging tape. I don’t think this is March of 2000” “I’m watching the Anthropic numbers and the OpenAI numbers... At the end of the day, where’s the revenue to pay for all this? If that goes away, game over”

DAN NILES SAYS MOST INVESTORS GET "FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE" WRONG "They'll say ignore all this, this is short-term noise, focus on the big picture. The problem is you don't know what the big picture is." His example was Cisco $CSCO in 2000. The CEO said the company could grow 30% to 50% a year, sustainably, because of the internet. By May 2001, Cisco said its bookings had gone from growth of more than +70% to a decline of more than -30% in a matter of months. Revenue then fell for two fiscal years in a row.

NEXT UP ON THE STREAM: DAN NILES The founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management is live with us now to talk about Anthropic going public and what the market is pricing in.

WHAT WOULD YOU ASK DAN IVES ABOUT THE ANTHROPIC IPO? @DivesTech is live with us right now. Partner and Senior Managing Director at Yorkville Ives, and one of Wall Street's best-known tech bulls.

$FROG is up 31%, on pace for its best day since its 2020 listing, after reporting stellar earnings.

🇺🇸 THE IRS JUST RAISED THE 0% CAPITAL GAINS BRACKET FOR 2027 If your taxable income stays under these limits, you pay 0% federal tax on long-term gains, per CNBC: Single: $51,050 Married: $102,100 "Long-term" means you held the investment for more than 1 year. "Taxable income" is your income after deductions. The standard deduction for 2027: Single: $16,600 Married: $33,200 So a married couple taking the standard deduction can make about $135,300 in total, gains included, and still pay 0% on those gains.

DraftKings shares plunge 30% to their lowest level since Feb 2023 $DKNG is now down 80% from its peak.

TSMC IS WEIGHING A MOVE INTO THE MEMORY CHIP MARKET The world's largest chipmaker has started drawing up plans to make 3D DRAM at the request of Nvidia, its biggest customer, per The Information