Kelly-optimized leverage has arrived. For those who don’t already know, this is leverage that’s made to be held for long periods of time. Developed in 1956, Kelly sizing has been used by professional investors for decades to maximize long-term compounded growth. Regular investors never had an easy way to access it. Maintaining the leverage target took work, and financing was expensive. @2FactorFinance tackles both: it manages the leverage target and sources financing from investors who want stable yield instead of from shorts. Financing costs about 75% less than conventional alternatives, with no liquidations. Built to be held, not traded. They're backed by Coinbase Ventures and Pantera, and have also received support from Brian Armstrong. Their Points Program is now live. The top 10 on the final Season 1 leaderboard split 1 BTC, and your Season 1 Marks carry over into Season 2. Sign up through my link for a points boost: points.2factor.finance/k/rou…

we're just getting started with tokenized stocks our goal is to make @base the global stock market

"There's an element of humility to betting less than full Kelly." "Over-betting Kelly is an absolute disaster." Kris Abdelmessih on why sizing for maximum growth can backfire when you don't know your true edge.

Base builders ship hard Here's 25 things the Base ecosystem launched and announced in September 1) @aave listed Coinbase Tokenized Stocks. Holders can deposit stocks on Base as collateral and borrow USDC against them on Aave V4 2) @modveon launched Sivar. Now Salvadorans can send money between the US and El Salvador at low cost, with instant transfers that settle in seconds on Base 3) @Cloudflare opened a closed beta of its Monetization Gateway. APIs on Cloudflare can charge agents per request, settled in USDC on Base 4) Coinbase partnered with @Citi to bring stablecoin acceptance to Base, letting institutions take stablecoin payments on regulated rails with automatic fiat settlement 5) 10 teams were selected for Base Batches 004 out of 750+ applicants: @bitrepo_xyz, @contavcbr, @flovia402, @greekdotfi, @get_grow_app, @mercatus_ai, @rennfinance, @saturdaybank, @tribeca_xyz, and @ledig_tech 6) @catalystmkts_ launched markets on Base for whether an event happens, starting with social interactions and expanding to listings, launches, news, and onchain events 7) @verantaxyz launched 39 new assets on Veranta and Base. Traders can trade them with up to 25x leverage, including 26 assets that were not tradable onchain 8) @2factorfinance launched its public beta on Base. Long-term holders can hold moderate leverage indefinitely, first on Bitcoin and then on Coinbase Tokenized Stocks, at a fraction of what a leveraged ETF costs to carry 9) @avantprotocol launched Avant on Base, onchain infrastructure for productive capital. It starts by bringing that capital into @morpho lending markets 10) @alchemixfi launched Alchemix V3 on Base. Users can now deposit once and earn with no lock-up, borrow against that money with no interest while it keeps earning, or lock in a fixed return 11) @upshift_fi is live on Base with @clearstarlabs. Curators, fintechs, and asset managers can launch vaults, and depositors keep their own funds. The first vault lets XRP holders earn on cbXRP in @morpho lending markets 12) @revertfinance launched Revert Rewards on Base. Liquidity providers can open a position in the tokenized stock pools on @aeroxyz, set a price range, and track the fees hour by hour 13) @clearstarlabs added cbZEC and cbHYPE to its cbAssets Vault on Base. Both markets are live in its largest vault on @morpho 14) @o1_exchange launched tax tokens on its launchpad on Base. Creators can set a buy and sell tax from 1% to 10% and route it to themselves, to holders as dividends paid in the paired asset, or to burns 15) @zothdotio expanded zPayments on Base, a stablecoin settlement platform for businesses. Businesses can pay out in local currency across 171 countries, at one stated rate, with instant settlement 16) @munifyai is now on Base. People can receive, hold, spend, and move dollars in one account with USDC on Base 17) @rifthq released an onchain API, letting users send money to a deposit address while it runs the swap, bridge, or deposit, including routes to Base 18) @morpho introduced P2P Orders for Midnight on Base, letting you set your own terms from the fixed-rate app 19) @numoforex launched a Naira Perp market on Base. Traders can now trade USDC-cNGN-PERP directly on Base 20) @fluidkey turned on auto-earn on Base. USDC you receive starts earning when it lands, through a vault curated by @kpk_io on @morpho 21) @predofficial opened NBA preseason markets on Base, letting users back their takes on a game with no fees for the whole season 22) @longshotxyz added soccer markets on Base, featuring leagues from Spain, England, and USA 23) @flapdotsh is now on Base. Tokens launched on Flap can trade against tokenized stocks, so an onchain token can be paired with a real-world asset 24) @norafinancexyz launched $BRS on Base, the Brazilian real onchain, adding more distribution and more ways to plug it into other apps 25) @roqqupay introduced the Roqqu Go Card, a multi-currency card for spending crypto like cash, running USDC on Base

"every single trader out there seems to make the same mistake over and over again. their position size is probably two to ten times more than it should be." martin shkreli built a kelly criterion simulator to test exactly this. "most folks don't actually have an edge when they trade. but if they did, they're trading as if they had a 4x or 5x kelly edge." "if you run the simulator, you will go to zero each time." "even with a 60/40 edge on every trade you make, you'll go bust if you overbet." "and who has a 60/40 edge in the stock market? nobody has a 60/40 edge." even a real edge, sized wrong, still ends at zero. sizing is too commonly the part I see every trader consider second or third.

Early days, but this is what kelly-optimal BTC looks like: - BTC +11.94% - cbBTC-Jr + 16.31% Note the down and sideways periods in the early part of the series. You can just hold through it. By design it's backtested (for positive drift assets) st — the marginal benefit of holding through rallies >> marginal cost of holding it through down-swings. @2FactorFinance @base #notfinancialadvice

Nicely done!