jason 🎢 retweeted
quantum has re-opened the door for alt-SoV's for the first time since early bitcoin days
the 1030 seller appears to have found more coins💀
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, what’s next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTC’s Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropic’s Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isn’t 2000
33:51 Crypto’s Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshi’s Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertrade’s Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme
The AI boom is feeding speculation from both directions.
The four biggest hyperscalers plan to spend $720B to $745B on capex in 2026, more than double the telecom boom’s peak as a share of GDP. That is the construction story traders are chasing.
AI feeds the lottery engine too. Its data centers are driving up power bills for the 67 million people on the PJM grid. Their demand alone added $9.3B to that grid’s costs in a single year.
Entry-level jobs are thinning as well. Employment for 22 to 25 year olds in the most AI-exposed roles is 19% below where it would have been had it kept pace with less-exposed peers.
AI hands young people both a story to chase and a reason to chase it.
had fun going through all my favorite financial history books and putting this together
as a wise man once said, alpha is hidden in the texts that many are too lazy to read
Our report “The House Always Wins: Why Speculation is a Theme of the Decade” is out now.
Speculation runs rampant when new tech rearranges what’s possible or the system stops working for most. AI and crypto are now fueling both.
Read it for free here.
delphi.link/Speculation
full report here:
members.delphidigital.io/rep…
jason 🎢 retweeted
ANTHROPIC TO DEDICATE 20% OF ITS SHARES TO “PUBLIC GOOD”
The only way to make it a public good is to give it to the people directly with full voting rights, not to some wholly owned LLC that does “public benefit” work
Burn this effective altruism to the ground
honestly sick of the glazing these people get
his initial blow up wasn't unlucky. it was a mathematical certainty given enough time
this recent performance isn't unlucky
stop the glazing nonsense
Leopold Aschenbrenner might genuinely be the unluckiest motherfucker alive.
After getting absolutely destroyed in July and being forced to liquidate much of his AI portfolio, he reportedly came back swinging in early September, buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of options premium.
Look at how those stocks have performed since September 8:
$CRWV: -37.4%
$SKHY: -25.8%
$SNDK: -23.8%
$DRAM: -22.9%
$BE: -18.1%
$INTC: -9.4%
$AMD: +9.1%
Six out of seven are underwater, with an average decline of roughly 18.6%.
And remember, we're talking about someone who reportedly rebuilt exposure through leveraged options, not just common shares.
Imagine surviving a massive forced liquidation, watching your favorite stocks recover, deciding it's finally safe to get back in, and then getting hit by ANOTHER brutal selloff barely a month later.
The worst part about options is that you can be absolutely right about the long-term AI infrastructure thesis and still lose a fortune because your timing was wrong.
I genuinely feel for the guy.
The market has absolutely no mercy.
jason 🎢 retweeted
tomorrow we dive into what the future of crypto looks like in a world where ai continues to get exponentially better at math
quantum, hardforks, satoshi's warning, game theory, and if it's already too late w/ @nic_carter
jason 🎢 retweeted
Excited to announce I'm teaming up with @Delphi_Digital which means we can start dropping some of what we've been cooking up
Spent almost 1/3 of my life now learning from & talking to the smartest ppl I could find in crypto. Whether it was surfacing new trade ideas, hearing from founders, or navigating market cycles....I kept running into Delphi
The vision finally aligned on what we could build together as crypto enters this next epoch
I'm unbelievably bullish on the future of finance x crypto x ai....and the role we can all play in bringing it to life
Onwards!
jason 🎢 retweeted
We've never had more fun than in the conversations we're having right now.
All we wanted was to hit record and share it with everyone else.
So we funded a new entity with $1M and tapped @VentureCoinist to lead it, build a team, and launch a new flagship show.
Get ready.
jason 🎢 retweeted
New Emerging Managers episode with @rohanpuj is live.
Rohan is one of the few truly independent thinkers I've met in venture. Even rarer, he has the risk tolerance to actually take big swings on those views. I believe these are the 2 qualities that make a great investor, and he's one of the few EMs I've met who I think has the potential to be generational.
His take is that the first generation of VCs were risk takers who took weird paths into the industry, while the new school is mostly credentialed box-tickers whose biggest fear is being wrong when everyone else is right. So VC has become a markup game.
Rohan goes where no one else is looking. In his first fund that meant hard tech before it was consensus: K2 Space (big satellites when everyone was building small ones) and Jaza (an African energy utility now growing ~10x a year). In his second, it's Truffle (personal AI computers that run models locally), backed months before everyone started buying Mac Minis to run agents at home, and doubling down on After Thought's new AI architecture to fix what LLMs get wrong.
We get into what makes him different, the list he keeps of the 21 investors who've returned $1b+ on a single deal more than once, why he hates SF, why he thinks the hard tech window has closed, and much more.
(Disclosure: we're LPs in Valhalla's Fund II)
