Juniper

As someone who’s lost seven figures on $OPEN, I’m feeling particularly disgusted (and stupid) today. The Open House was a joke - especially the mostly irrelevant, scripted questions. They were frankly offensive to shareholders who actually want real, transparent answers on fundamental topics like contribution targets, the new ANI target, timelines for the nationwide 3P launch, etc. And how is there still no mention of the warrants that expire in 13 days? For the first time since I started investing in $OPEN, I don’t trust the leadership. I’m not selling, but in my head I’ve already written this off

There has been a lot of speculation lately about where Opendoor is on the path to ANI break-even, and I worry some folks think we are further ahead than we actually are. Rather than have you guess, I want to do two things. First, give you a direct update on how Q3 is tracking, and second, start releasing numbers more frequently so you can track our progress for yourself and hold us accountable. To say the thing up front: we are not at ANI break-even yet. What we are seeing in the actual numbers of the business this week, the speed of underwriting, the accuracy of our models, the response from our users and the forward revenue created are all going very well. We’re making lots of progress, but rebuilds are bumpy. TL;DR: The worsening housing market at the end of August pushed us roughly six to eight weeks behind on our Adjusted EBITDA guideposts, meaning the twelve-month window in which we expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable now starts this quarter rather than last quarter. For Q3, we expect revenue to increase 10-15% year over year, Contribution Profit dollars to increase 70-75% year over year, and Contribution Margin to land between 3.2% and 3.5%. We still expect to exit 2026 ANI-positive on a twelve-month go-forward basis. On our first earnings call I told you we would make the right long-term decisions for the business, not manage it around a quarterly number. August tested whether we meant it. For most of its life as a public company, Opendoor sold homes slower than the market. Between our IPO and my start date, we cleared at roughly 85% of market pace and lagged the market two days out of every three. We held on to homes under the belief that waiting protected margins. Holding homes was our own version of bloodletting, the "cure" for weak margins. It did not work, and it made this company fragile. Over my first year, we changed that. We now clear significantly faster than the market, beating it nearly nine days out of ten. This is our job: clear faster. When we reported earnings in early August, July contribution margin was tracking ahead of our plans and the housing market looked like it might be stabilizing. Instead, the last two weeks of August were among the worst we have seen for housing in years. Clearance slowed further and delistings stayed high. That is not an excuse - it’s just what happened. We had a choice. Slow sales, protect the margin number, and let homes age. Or price to clear. Old Opendoor chose the first option for years. It made the quarter look better, but it made the company worse. We are not doing that again. Time has a cost, and selling homes fast is the discipline this business requires. We are going to clear homes, even when that hurts margins. Our job is to sell homes, not park inventory or pull listings offline when things get tough. The market got worse, but it did not break our resale engine. We are still clearing faster than the market. That is part of the business we rebuilt, and it held. Don’t confuse any of this with the business moving backwards. The business is in materially better condition today. Revenue and contribution margin will both be higher year over year. And as the rest of the rebuild catches up, a market like this will hurt us less going forward. Nothing longer-term is changing. We expect Opendoor will be ANI-positive on a twelve-month go-forward basis exiting 2026. That depends on buying fast and selling fast. If margins were resetting permanently, that would change things. That is not what is happening. We are repricing one book of inventory and clearing it instead of rolling it into next year. To help you follow all that we are doing better, both on sales and acquisitions, we are going to give you more to track every week on accountable.opendoor.com. Just as you should not have to wait until earnings to see what is happening on acquisitions, you should not have to wait to see how many homes we sold or how fast we cleared. Last week, we sold 223 homes, and cleared 19% faster than the market, adjusted for delistings. The weekly numbers will be noisy, just as the acquisition numbers were when we first started publishing them. What matters is the trend: as we buy more homes, are we selling them at the pace we planned and staying ahead of the market or not? And when we are behind, you will see it for yourself. I told you how we would manage this company: for years, not quarters. Twelve months from now, judge us based on that. Either we fixed the company or not. The core metrics say we are on track. For Q3, year over year, we expect margin to be up. Revenue up. Velocity up. The end of August was absolutely brutal for housing and pushed us back by roughly six to eight weeks. We’re not going to take that sitting down. Kaz (fyi, regular disclosures on this type of thing where we release weekly numbers etc are on our IR page, investor.opendoor.com)

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