ACF Equity Research

ACFMarketWrap: A £15bn UK Budget cushion, a Fed decision and fresh AI chip deals are setting the stage for a pivotal session across global markets - Wall Street edged higher as investors balanced renewed semiconductor optimism against uncertainty over the Fed's next move and a wave of major technology earnings. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, Nasdaq rose 0.4% and Dow hovered near flat ahead of the central bank's policy announcement. Markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged following last month's 25bp hike, with attention firmly on guidance for the rest of the year. AI stocks found support after South Korea's SK Hynix reported record quarterly profits, while reports that OpenAI plans to purchase AI chips from $GOOG added momentum to the sector. $AVGO +2%, $MU +4.9% and $AMD +1.8%, while real estate and materials lagged. Investors also awaited after-hours results from $MSFT and $GOOG. Mag 7 mixed: $GOOG +1.6%, $NVDA -0.32%, $MSFT -0.73%, $AMZN -0.19%, $TSLA -1.55%, $META -1.04%, $AAPL -0.34%. London held steady, with the FTSE 100 near flat as Chancellor John Healey unveiled his first Budget, sending UK 10-year gilt yields towards 5.3%, their lowest in over a month. The government reaffirmed its fiscal rules, with the OBR projecting £15bn of fiscal headroom for 2029-30, broadly matching expectations, while planned gilt issuance remained in line with forecasts. Measures included energy bill relief, smaller-than-feared bank tax increases, tariff suspensions on more than 100 supermarket products and a 3.9% rise in minimum wages. The Budget also committed an additional £20.4bn to the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank to support investment and an estimated 140,000 jobs. However, the economic outlook remained challenging: the OBR cut its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1% from 1.6%, citing the impact of the Iran war, while lifting its 2026 estimate to 1.2% from 1.1%. Borrowing and public debt projections were also revised higher across the forecast period. European equities struggled for direction, with the Euro STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 broadly unchanged as gains in Germany and Italy offset a decline of more than 1% in Spain following a fatal rail crash that claimed 68 lives. Rising Middle East tensions lifted crude prices and supported oil and gas stocks, which gained over 1%, while autos advanced more than 1% and utilities added over 0.5%. Media stocks dropped ~2%, with miners, household goods and chemicals also under pressure. Corporate earnings drove sharp moves: $LOGN -10% on supply-chain concerns, $GSK -5% after disappointing results and $SAN -5.5% on weaker net profit, while $UBS -1%. ethereum:0x45e02bc2875a2914c4f585bbf92a6f28bc07cb70 +0.4% despite lowering its outlook, and $BNP +0.3%. Financials offered some bright spots, with $WLN +5%, $STAN +2.7% and $DBK +4% on stronger results or guidance. Next in focus: Fed Interest Rate Decision & Japan Consumer Confidence. ACFview @WizardBattery @EU_Startups @Share_Talk @ZaksTradersCafe @zakmir @VOXmarkets @focusIR @LondonSouthEast @BullsNBearsWA @ArthurBenta

ACFMarketWrap: A $63bn AI financing deal is firing up chip stocks as falling oil prices give Wall Street another lift ahead of the Fed - US equities mostly advanced Tuesday as semiconductor gains, easing energy costs and mixed corporate earnings kept investors engaged ahead of Wednesday's crucial interest-rate decision. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.7% and Dow held near flat. $AVGO surged over 4% after a banking consortium and $BX announced $63bn in financing linked to Anthropic's use of Broadcom technology, reinforcing confidence in large-scale AI infrastructure spending. Earnings delivered sharp contrasts: $JBLU soared 12% on an upbeat margin outlook, while $UPS gained 2% after beating profit expectations. However, $BA ▼9% after reporting a larger-than-expected 3Q26 loss, and $GLW ▼4% despite stronger-than-forecast results. $WHR ▼over 1% following a quarterly loss, while $PYPL ▼ 0.5% after 3Q26 revenue disappointed. Attention now turns to the Fed, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged as investors scrutinise policymakers' guidance for signs of further tightening before year-end. Mag 7 mixed: $GOOG +1.08%, $NVDA +0.91%, $MSFT -0.01%, $AMZN +1.79%, $TSLA +3.63%, $META -1.01%, $AAPL +0.65%. Europe extended its recovery for a second session as declining oil prices improved the inflation outlook amid renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict. The Euro STOXX 50 +0.8% and STOXX 600 +0.5%, with Italy +0.8%, Germany and Spain +0.7%, and France +0.4%, while the UK bucked the trend with a 0.7%▼. Mining and technology stocks led the advance, while personal care and automakers lagged. Corporate results remained a major source of volatility: $HSBA ▼5.4% after 3Q26 profits missed expectations, while $RKT ▼4.9% after cutting its sales outlook amid US supply constraints and weaker vitamin demand in China. $P911 gained 3.8% as resilient profitability helped offset declining vehicle deliveries. UK bucked the trend. Mining and technology stocks led the continental advance, while personal care and automakers lagged. London faced a tougher session, with the FTSE 100 ▼ > 0.5% as disappointing earnings and weaker energy shares overshadowed a mining rally. Oil majors also struggled as Brent retreated on renewed US-Iran peace hopes, sending $SHEL.L▼1.7% and $BP.L ▼2.8%. Miners provided a rare bright spot, with $ANTO.L + 4.6%, while $EDV.L, $FRES.L and $RIO.L + ~2.5% each and $AAL.L +2.3%. UK inflation pressures also resurfaced as October shop price inflation accelerated to 2.1% y/y from 1.4% in September, exceeding the 1.6% forecast and complicating the outlook for consumer spending and monetary policy. Next in focus: API Crude Oil Stock Change. ACFview @WizardBattery @EU_Startups @Share_Talk @ZaksTradersCafe @zakmir @VOXmarkets @focusIR @LondonSouthEast @BullsNBearsWA @ArthurBenta

ACFMorningMeeting - Europe sneezes? - A semiconductor rally lifted Asian shares, but European futures turned lower ahead of the Fed, the UK Budget and large-company results. HSBC's profit growth and Novartis's guidance upgrade show that investors still have company-specific earnings to weigh against the weaker opening call. Opens - FTSE 100 futures were 10,736.5 -0.58%, EURO STOXX 50 futures 6,098 -0.61% and DAX futures 25,443.5 -0.43%; CAC 40 futures were 7,829 -0.45%. US futures: Dow +0.07%, S&P 500 -0.10%, Nasdaq 100 -0.43%. Earlier Asian cash markets: Nikkei +2.2%, Kospi +3.6%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Shanghai -0.1%. $STOXX $FTSE $FTMC $DAX $CAC $DJI $GSPC $IXIC Stock Watch - HSBC $HSBA.L reported 3Q PBT of $9.63bn +32%, but much of the reported increase reflected the non-recurrence of a prior-year legal provision; it announced a further buyback of up to $1bn. Novartis $NOVN.SW lifted its YE26E core operating-income outlook after 3Q core operating income rose +10% at constant currency, while reported net income fell -70% after a pipeline impairment. Commods - Brent c.$115.96/bbl, WTI c.$101.68/bbl, GOLD c.$4,004/toz -0.31% and COPPER c.$6.51/lb (broadly flat). COCOA $5,490/MT -1.82%, with no new driver verified; SUGAR raw benchmark CFD 19.10¢/lb -5.63% as lower oil, a weaker Brazilian real and resumed crushing impacted pricing; COFFEE Arabica-linked benchmark 300.95¢/lb -2.11% as a weaker real and improved supply expectations influenced expectations. Data Focus - The Fed meeting begins today. US durable-goods orders and consumer confidence are also due today; the UK Budget and Fed decision follow Wednesday, with the ECB decision Thursday. ACFView: We still prefer EPS with clear correlations with cash generation over a broad semiconductor rally until European shares and bond yields confirm there is solid appetite for risk. @WizardBattery @EU_Startups @Share_Talk @ZaksTradersCafe @zakmir @VOXmarkets @focusIR @LondonSouthEast @BullsNBearsWA @ArthurBenta @aimrns