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Replying to @Noahpinion
Kudos to @Noahpinion wading into my research area. Broadly agree with his summary. There is even more literature on the positive effects of export manufacturing on working conditions. Some is summarized in a policy brief I wrote with F. Amodio (McGill): mcgill.ca/isid/files/isid/ch…
The conundrum of religion:
- Being religious has many positive effects for you (community, solace...)
- You can't fake being religious if you don't believe it with your heart!
its not a pill you can take, its in your "genes".
The empirical social science around the positive impacts of religious attendance is overwhelming.
When I tell this to crowds, I often get this response:
"Yeah, but I don't believe in all that. I can find community in other ways."
Yet, there's been no replacement for religious community created in the last 30 years that has even 5% of the participation of weekend church-going.
So, there's kind of an impasse here.
Andreas Menzel retweeted
Irgendwie hat der Nazi-„Krieg gegen Russland“ dem ukrainischen Volk etwa acht Millionen Menschenleben gekostet.
Zur historischen Verantwortung gehört auch die Verantwortung der Medien, mit irreführenden Schlagzeilen nicht ungewollt russische Propaganda widerzuspiegeln.
Fascinated by how 4 year olds strenuously deny any fault on their own part even if they clearly were at fault (i.e. hurting sibling). Admitting fault seems really something kids have to be taught. Guess, some were never taught that though.
Andreas Menzel retweeted
Aftermath of Russian attack on Kyiv; death toll nationwide stands at 13; more than 100 wounded.
Photos by @SerhiiNuzhnenko
Andreas Menzel retweeted
A shocking video of the aftermath of the attack on Lukyanivka in Kyiv has been published online.
Horror and pain.
Perpetrator: Russia.
Andreas Menzel retweeted
This coffee shop in Kyiv opened yesterday, then got hit by a russian air strike just hours later.
Today, they're still open and people in Kyiv are lining up to buy a coffee to support them, stepping over debris and broken glass on the way in.
FYI, the coffee is excellent 🇺🇦
Andreas Menzel retweeted
The moment of one of today’s Russian strikes on Kyiv.
I can see that fewer and fewer people are reading news from Ukraine. I understand that on a Sunday morning, people don’t want to read about war. They want to sleep a little longer, drink good coffee, and sit in the sun. I understand that. The algorithms on X limit content about war, destruction, and suffering. You have to make an effort to even see this information.
All of this is understandable on a human level. But unfortunately, if you remove Putin and the war from your information feed, they do not disappear from reality.
Putin is a sadist and a maniac. He is a threat to all of humanity.
There needs to be active resistance. News from Ukraine needs to be shared. People need to keep their focus.
Despite a sleepless night, I’m still here. And I’m grateful to everyone who continues to stand with us.
One day, we’ll drink morning coffee together in a beautiful, peaceful Kyiv.
55 Russian missiles and 549 drones were intercepted or suppressed over Ukraine overnight.
In addition, 19 Russian missiles likely failed to reach their targets, Ukraine’s Air Force added, noting that the information is still being clarified.
According to preliminary data, impacts from 16 missiles and 51 drones were recorded across 54 locations, while falling debris was reported at 23 locations.
📹 Kyiv this morning
Trump on Taiwan: When you look at the odds, China is very, very powerful, big country. That's a very small island. Think of it, it's 59 miles away. We're 9500 miles away. That's a little bit of a difficult problem. Taiwan was developed because we had presidents that didn't know what the hell they were doing. They stole our chip industry.
This is a very sane take on the debate.
There has been a big debate over whether Europeans are really poorer than Americans, and whether Europe is really falling behind.
Unfortunately, the pro-Europe side is wrong.
noahpinion.blog/p/yes-europe…
Andreas Menzel retweeted
It's hard to oversell this map - make sure to bookmark it and share it with your friends. Fantastic research that must have been soooo labour intensive: How has the population of evert single small geographic region across Europe changed from 1961 to 2024? You will want to study this map in detail. Source (keep scrolling for a while): correctiv.org/aktuelles/2026…
Andreas Menzel retweeted
Just remembered the story about a computer scientist who had his bike stolen and tried to explain binary search to a cop
I've spent a lot of time with Claude Code in the past 4 months. There have been 3 types of interactions. I want to share a bit here, since most of my fellow economists have a lot to say about AI, apparently.
1) Specific coding asks - too many to count, very much productivity enhancing in specific tasks. Saves time in routine programming. Great.
2) Working with CC with a lot of interaction to model and calibrate: a ton of hand holding but getting very quick feedback on ideas and iteration. I have only *one* successful example of that and it'll likely go into a publication. Very productive, but largely as a highly effective RA who happens to be able to give very fast feedback on ideas (like simulating a model, or estimating using data, to test out a hypothesis). And it took a lot of my time to make it work, with tons of time where CC was going to go off the deep end without my hand holding. So, my managerial capacity was absolutely a critical constraining factor. I can't do this for too many projects.
3) Letting CC "write a paper" from scratch on an interesting topic and prompts, and minimal detailed instructions. Here I found CC roaming free to be highly unpredictable in quality, and largely a disappointment. On matters I have expertise it would often go on the wrong track and reach a dead end unless I veered it away. This includes theory and empirics. When I let it just write a paper based on its findings the quality was questionable, and at the minimum would require major time commitment to make it viable. I have 3 such full-paper drafts. I doubt any of them will see the light of the day. Maybe someone smarter than me can seed CC with the right starting point to produce an enormous number of successful papers. Or, maybe not.
Bottom line: based on my very personal experience (not gonna say you all are like me), this makes me feel (1) there are very clear but limited productivity gains in the pipeline (2) people who appear to think we're at the cusp of the singularity will probably be deeply disappointed.
Andreas Menzel retweeted
Are paper rejections really that bad? My papers get read by ~3 people on average. Each rejection means a resubmission, which means 3 more readers. After 4 rejections, that's double-digit readership.
Why firms under-promote women – and how experimentation can fix it
Rocco Macchiavello (@LSEManagement), @AMenzel_Econ (@dSEA_Unipd), @atonurabbani (@UnivofDhaka) & Chris Woodruff (@OxfordEconDept) outlined research on female managers in Bangladesh: voxdev.org/topic/labour-mark…
Andreas Menzel retweeted
‼️ Ukraine is in a total blackout. A major system failure has knocked out power across large parts of the country.
Kyiv has no water supply citywide.
Energy workers are racing to restore electricity, but this is an emergency right now.
Andreas Menzel retweeted
In the autumn of 1942, a slight, 32-year-old Polish social worker named Irena Sendler passed through the gates of the Warsaw Ghetto with a carpenter’s toolbox in her arms. Beneath the hammers and nails lay a drugged six-month-old infant, breathing softly, utterly silent. One cry would have meant instant death for both of them. Irena smiled at the guards; they waved her through. They never suspected that this quiet woman would repeat the journey 2,499 more times.
The ghetto was a slow-motion extermination. Starvation, disease, and random murder stalked every street. Jewish parents faced a choice no human being should ever have to make: keep their child and watch them waste away, or hand them to a stranger who promised a chance—however thin—at life.
Irena came officially to inspect for typhus. In reality, she came to steal children from death.
Babies left in toolboxes or ambulances under false bottoms. Toddlers sedated and tucked into potato sacks. Older children led by the hand through the stinking, lightless sewers while German boots marched overhead. “Not a sound,” she whispered as rats scurried past their feet.
She knew that the rescued children would be given new names, new religions, new families. Their pasts would vanish unless someone remembered. So, on fragile scraps of tissue paper, Irena wrote each child’s real name, their parents’ names, and their new hiding place. She rolled the papers tight, slipped them into glass jars, and buried them beneath an apple tree in a neighbor’s garden. If she were caught and killed, the truth might still survive.
She was caught.
On October 20, 1943, the Gestapo kicked in her door. They took her to Pawiak Prison and demanded the list. When she refused, they smashed both her legs with iron bars. Then her feet. Then her arms. For weeks the beatings continued. She never spoke. They scheduled her execution. On the appointed morning, guards dragged the broken woman from her cell.
Instead of a firing squad, she found herself outside the prison walls—alive. The Polish underground council Żegota had bribed a guard to mark her file “shot while trying to escape.” Officially dead, Irena Sendler limped back into the shadows to keep working.When the war finally ended, the first thing she did was dig up the jars under the apple tree. She spent years trying to return the children—now scattered across convents, farms, and foster homes—to whatever family might remain.
Almost no parents had survived. But the children had. Because of her, 2,500 Jewish boys and girls lived to grow up, to marry, to have children and grandchildren of their own—an entire secret branch of the human family tree that the Nazis never managed to cut down.For decades her story stayed buried deeper than the jars themselves. Then, in 1999, four high-school girls in rural Kansas stumbled across a brief mention of her name. They found the old woman still living quietly in Warsaw and brought her courage back into the light.
Journalists called her the greatest rescuer of the Holocaust. Irena only shook her head.“I could have saved more,” she said. “That regret follows me to the grave.”Irena Sendler—armed with nothing but a ghetto work permit, a toolbox, and a refusal to look away—proved that even in the heart of the worst evil humanity has ever devised, one determined person can still keep the darkness from winning completely.
Andreas Menzel retweeted
Econ seminar culture is built on the assumption that the audience knows something that the speaker doesn't, and that the speaker values that information.
A very important thing the audience knows and the speaker doesn't: Is the speaker making any sense at all?
If nobody has any idea what you are saying, it's very helpful to be interrupted on slide 3. If you leave confusion for too long, you will lose your audience entirely.
To publish a paper / nail a presentation, you need to nail the elevator pitch perfectly. In a paper, this is the introduction, in a presentation it's the preview. If you get 50 questions in your paper preview, it's often a signal that you have work to do. It's a sign you're at risk of losing the reader in your introduction, it's not good.
If someone asks "are you going to address endogeneity?" Don't roll your eyes because it's coming on slide 12. The feedback is: "It's very hard to interpret the things you are saying without clarity on how you are thinking about endogeneity."
It's normal that junior presenters should face more questions. They have less presenting experience and the audience knows more relative to them as compared with a senior talk. (Though often juniors have better presenting skills)
After a presentation where I get bogged down at the beginning, I ask myself what were the key stumbling points, how can I make things tighter the next time.
Of course, the audience also has a responsibility to keep their interruptions value-adding. A good audience member assesses whether their interruption will add to the whole group's understanding more than remaining silent.
Some audience members are bad at this and waste others' time, and seminar organizers need strategies to prevent these people from being destructive. But in most econ seminar settings, policies that reduce interruptions on average (without discriminating low- vs. high-quality interruptions) are throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
Questions and interruptions are good. They keep everyone engaged and on their toes. They result in better understanding for everyone. The good econ seminars are the best seminars in the social sciences, and the good overwhelmingly outnumber the bad.
Andreas Menzel retweeted
BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2025 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt “for having explained innovation-driven economic growth” with one half to Mokyr “for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress” and the other half jointly to Aghion and Howitt “for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction.”
#NobelPrize
Andreas Menzel retweeted
You're not imagining it -- cities really do neglect roads in poor neighborhoods
Worse roads mean more car repairs
Another way that being poor in America is expensive


































