Authoring the detailed transition plan for an independent Alberta — the institutions, the economy, the law, the road to nationhood.
Joined May 2026
- Tweets80
- Following16
- Followers5.5K
- Likes60
Apply every shock at once, at its worst, for four straight years.
Alberta would need to borrow about C$29 billion in total, around 6.1% of one year's output. Survivable.
Then the surplus returns: C$22 to C$32 billion a year.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Twenty budget statements, one for every domain a sovereign Alberta would run.
About 14,000 new permanent jobs. C$3.6 billion a year in permanent cost once built.
Every figure sourced, and the workbook is public. Written to be checked.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Forward to Freedom runs two cases. Conservative: low revenue, high costs. Favourable: the reverse.
Left over each year: C$22.2 billion and C$32.1 billion. Per Albertan: C$4,390 and C$6,350.
Assume the worst and Alberta still clears C$22 billion.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
The base case counts nothing for growth from lower taxes, investment returning, better market access, federal land and buildings, or Heritage Fund earnings.
It even leaves out Alberta's own C$9.7 billion resource upgrade.
Each one only helps.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
On a C$167 billion transfer, Alberta's pension fund is bigger in 2066 than on Day 1.
On Ottawa's own figure of about C$100 billion, it still lasts to 2066. With no transfer at all, CPP benefits stay portable.
Retirees are paid on every case tested.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Forward to Freedom models 2046 eighteen ways, varying production, prices and spending discipline.
The annual surplus runs from C$44 billion to C$167 billion.
Every one of the eighteen beats where Alberta stands today.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Take every shock independence could cause: a federal debt share, an Indigenous settlement, a corporate tax base hit, higher interest. Set each at its worst.
C$13.5 billion a year.
Alberta still runs a surplus of C$8.7 to C$18.6 billion.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Cut personal income tax by a third and bring corporate tax to about 19%.
Cost: C$17 to C$22 billion a year. The conservative surplus is C$22.2 billion.
Alberta is still in the black, in the low case, every year.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
The one-time cost of the transition: about C$5 billion, spread over three years.
Set against C$20 to C$30 billion a year left over afterward, that is two to three months of one year's surplus.
Once. Then it is paid.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Ottawa collects C$68 to C$77 billion a year from Albertans and spends about C$52 billion here.
The University of Calgary's own estimate, C$71 billion, sits inside that range.
Under independence, the gap stays home.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Pay for every service Albertans get today. Pay for every federal job Alberta takes over. Pay the costs of running a country.
What is left: C$22.2 to C$32.1 billion a year.
That is C$4,390 to C$6,350 per Albertan, every year.
albertatransitioncouncil.com
Alberta Transition Council retweeted
Wilson, the independence supporter, turns that argument around. “It would be economic suicide for the rest of the country to decide to cut off trade with Alberta,” he said. “Alberta is an economic powerhouse, and we’re growing more powerful by the month.”
edmontonjournal.com/business… via @edmontonjournal
A single earner on C$60,000 keeps C$4,200 more a year. A couple on C$125,000, C$9,800. A family on C$165,000, C$12,600. That is 45 to 55% less income tax, permanently, under the illustrative programme in Forward to Freedom. albertatransitioncouncil.com
Press release: new reports find Alberta could afford the transition to independence and have billions left over each year.
One-time transition cost: about C$5 billion. Room remaining every year after that: C$22.2 to C$32.1 billion.
Full release and both reports ⬇️
albertatransitioncouncil.com…
The Alberta Transition Council has published two companion documents to the Alberta Transition Plan.
Forward to Freedom is a fiscal capacity assessment and projection for an independent Alberta.
The Budget and Costing Report is a fully costed budget for the transition, presented in twenty budget statements.
Both are available at albertatransitioncouncil.com.
Something often missing from the independence debate:
Alberta wouldn't negotiate only as a province of 5 million people.
It would negotiate as a major energy producer sitting directly beside the world's largest economy—with pipelines, highways, railways and commercial relationships already connecting it to that market.
Alberta exported about $151.5 billion of goods to the United States in 2025.
Geography doesn't change after a referendum.
Neither do customers, pipelines or railways.
That existing economic position matters at the negotiating table.
The Alberta Transition Plan is not a campaign slogan.
It is a detailed examination of the machinery behind a possible transition:
law, courts, banking, taxation, pensions, borders, trade, transportation, energy, telecommunications, public services, international relations and more.
Its purpose is to identify what could continue, what would need to change, what would require negotiation and what would have to be ready before Day 1.
The research is now available for everyone to read and scrutinize.
albertatransitioncouncil.com…
Alberta's negotiating leverage isn't theoretical.
The Trans Mountain system carries Alberta oil and refined products across B.C.
The Enbridge system carries western Canadian energy east toward Ontario and Quebec.
Refineries, airports, trucking fleets, industries and consumers depend on those integrated supply systems.
Alberta needs customers. Canada needs reliable Alberta energy.
Neither side benefits from breaking what works. Both sides have an incentive to negotiate continuity.
That's the practical premise of the Alberta Transition Plan.
