AV, MD | Trading the metagame in this attention economy | @apg_capital | Eden

UTC+8
Joined August 2021
this bearishness and "sell the news" propaganda you hear is only in your head. they're about to launch eth etf and that's only the beginning.
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New launches, part 1 -- Private capture and phantom prices Substack: cobie.substack.com/p/new-lau…
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You know market conditions have changed when we're starting to see rallies followed by consolidation rather than pullbacks People will sell too early because they were conditioned to anticipate retracements, only to never get back in undermanaging trades szn
Seeing a lot of people in the tl sharing their own takes on this graphic Premise behind consolidation after an impulse is that strong trends shouldn't give HH HL structures Fuel for violent moves will always be shorts that try to call tops and sidelined ppl forced to buy higher
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Assuming you bought the lows, with price up nicely Where do you intend to sell?
16%Near the highs
43%New highs
21%Already sold
20%I'm still sidelined
580 votes • Final results
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Halving done Bears still waiting for 52k after moving targets from 60k Gatorade lifting Full moon waxing
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Eid Gatorade to those who celebrate
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the fun part when we start bouncing is when days of downtrend get retraced with 1-2 daily god candles people will still say they 'missed it'
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avoid overmanaging trades szn starts today
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Study the Spaghettis. Study the “Relative Strength” 1 $FTM = 1 Rolls Phantom
Replying to @smartestmoney
Goddamn $FTM, study relative strength.
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Study these tweets, correlate with market conditions, market participant mentality, sentiment, and individual profitability Lesson in there
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Study the metaverse coins after Facebook rebranded to Meta Study the RWA coins the past week
Replying to @AVCrypto_
price action of the whole basket moving together post-BlackRock fund news feels too similar to Facebook rebranding to Meta almost 3 years ago
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Narratives are mostly made up. They're usually some combination of: 1. Groups of speculators buying something early and talking their book 2. Outlier price performance in an asset/group, narrative gets attached after the fact to 'explain' price action Don't drown in fake FA.
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Going to tell my kids this was Jeff Bezos.
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we built defillama extension to protect exactly against that, here's how the same scam looks like when you have our extension with "twitter phishing detction" enabled we search for similar handles and change the background
An account impersonating @blknoiz06 phished >$2.6M today just by replying to each of his posts taking advantage of the recent meme coin craze. The largest single victim lost ~$1.2M. Theft address BUYgBfavHoGbfGYseyTWpzqKNeeYFjoJsgxiQcH4in4v
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chose rich recieved poor
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$SOL legit safe haven in this madness - locked SOL overhang all but gone - memecoin frenzy intact - didn't pause yesterday
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A few common mistakes in these conditions: 1. Excessive leverage. Specifically, introducing liquidation risk in assets that are regularly moving 10%-20%+ in a day. Let the volatility do the heavy lifting, not the leverage (or specifically, massively inflated position sizes facilitated by leverage that force you to use very tight stops or liquidate you on small moves against you). 2. Excessively tight stops. Same consideration. If you're targeting larger rotations in a higher volatility asset, being overly tight with stop placement can work against you. You don't want to create a loop where your idea is broadly correct, you get wicked out because you were LARPing as some 50R tick sniper, and then the market moves straight to your target without you. 3. Excessive rotation. If you're trying to make the most of a multi-week and multi-month trending period, you shouldn't be overly concerned with any specific 24H window of returns. It is a form of overtrading. It is also a form of FOMO. This also introduces the risk of creating a loop whereby you sell your bags to chase the strong stuff --> strong stuff consolidates --> the bags you sold moon --> repeat ad infinitum. Find some setups or ideas that you like and give them some room to breathe. 4. Mistaking consolidation for weakness. This is another version of time-based FOMO. Participants will infer that just because their bags haven't turbo mooned in a short period of time, the market is weak or they've allocated poorly. Instead, your rebuttable presumption should be that consolidations are a form of pullback and present an opportunity to buy stuff that eluded you when it was breaking out. Boredom and impatience do not necessarily signal weakness. 5. Excessive trade management. The degree to which you intervene in your trade ideas should somewhat mirror the time frames of those ideas. For example, if your trade is predicated on a breakout from a multi-week range, your targets and trade management time frames should be derived from (or resemble) the weekly time frame. That makes more sense than, for example, buying a large weekly breakout and setting a target at 15M resistance that's 5% higher and panicking over every red 5M candle. 6. Overtrading your core holdings. There are countless stories of traders getting very good swing and/or HTF positional entries but gradually fumbling them through trying to time every single dip and rotation that takes place on the way to their target. An unfortunately common version of this is selling 100% of exposure at some level in order to 'buy back lower'. This is particularly a strange choice when a trader's target is materially higher than the pullback they're hoping to rebuy. For example, if your ultimate target is 50% higher, is it worth selling all of your exposure in an attempt to time a 5%-10% dip? This can result in the market not offering the pullback that was hoped for, and now the trader is sidelined - this usually comes with a mental block, as buying back higher than you sold can be psychologically tricky/feels like you're chasing. In short, this is a form of overoptimisation. If you're bored and feel like gambling in between, use a sub account or @breakoutprop (disclaimer: I have a financial interest in its success) so you can scratch the trading itch without sabotaging yourself. Or go to the casino, get a hobby, whatever. 7. Excessive number of open positions. With every added position, your capacity to effectively manage any single position decreases. The altcoin market is still pretty tightly positively correlated, so you're more likely just spreading yourself thin rather than 'diversifying'. Focusing on a smaller number of higher conviction trade ideas and managing them patiently and judiciously is probably better than trying to catch everything at once and drowning in noise. If you want to spread yourself thin, go buy some Solana shitter lottery tickets i.e. X amount of $ across [large number] of memecoins/new coins that will either go to 0 or appear on your feed when you're up multiples. At least that doesn't take up your trade management RAM. 8. Allowing social media to materially impact your perception. It's PnL + leaderboard season. It may feel like absolutely everyone is winning massively all the time. Granted, the market has been very good unless you've been stubbornly short, but social media is still a highlight reel boosted by selection bias and survivorship bias. You don't see the fumbled entries, the break evens, the times traders got stopped at the bottom, undersizing great ideas and oversizing bad ideas, not pulling the trigger, and so on. As long as you're trading well and improving, don't try to speed run some arbitrary returns or net worth goal. TL;DR I ain't reading all that. I'm happy for u tho. Or sorry that happened. stop writing essays nerd give me a ticker
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did you buy the dip, anon?
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if this is truly it then the market won't give sidelined bidders a chance to get in from lower and give a chance for bears to close their shorts in profit december 16 style
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Newer traders are always searching for magical trade strategies and shortcuts to be profitable. Magical EMAs/MAs, Elliot Waves, Price Action, Random Heatmaps, etc. There’s no replacement for screen time and specific market experience The cure is in the poison, young blood.
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