Economics, Finance | NYT Bestselling Author | Filmmaker | Entrepreneur
Baltimore, MD
Joined October 2009
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Americans owe over $1.2T on #creditcards — at 20%+ rates.
Strong spending looks like confidence.
It can also be demand borrowed from next year.
At 20%, the #debt doesn't wait. It compounds.
🌐 greyswanfraternity.com
Resources are ripping on tight supply and a weakening dollar.
One is going the other way: #lumber just hit a two-year low.
It's tied to both housing and the real economy.
A renewable asset — now on sale.
A timberland REIT pays you to wait for the recovery — with a hefty dividend while the dollar debases.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
Everyone's bracing for a consumer slowdown.
The data disagrees.
Same-store #retail sales are up 9.7% YoY — well above the 2025 average.
Credit's rising, but that's a 2027 problem.
And peak retail earnings season starts now.
Today's Pro flags a retailer trending higher, trading at a discount to peers — with a hefty dividend.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
#Semiconductors just posted one of their worst selloffs in 20 years.
Last seen: the 2008, 2022, and 2025 lows.
But chip demand is off the charts — makers can't keep up.
Trouble starts with overcapacity. We're not there.
Today's PRO digs into a key chipmaker that just blew the lid off this capacity story.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
#Gold just passed the euro as the world's #2 reserve asset — behind only the dollar.
Central banks don't chase trends.
They're not betting gold rises.
They're hedging against everything else going wrong.
🌐 greyswanfraternity.com
Today's Pro recommendation zeroes in on exactly this kind of oversold setup.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
The world's biggest chipmaker funds the #AI firms that buy its chips.
Dollars out one door, back in another.
It looks like record demand.
It's really a circle.
And a circle holds only until everyone lets go at once.
🌐 greyswanfraternity.com
Andrew shares a unique asset built for the AI buildout — and for hedging sticky inflation.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
Everyone's bracing for a corporate #debt wall.
It's not a wall — it's a slow reset.
Over $4T matures at 2-4x the old rate.
The interest bill doubles one company at a time.
No bell rings for that.
🌐 greyswanfraternity.com
Bank earnings look strong.
#Gold is signaling otherwise.
Bank stocks and gold long moved together — that link is breaking.
The banks built the AI debt pile, and can't unload it.
When gold and banks split, trust gold.
Given the choice between banks and gold here, the data favors gold — and Andrew's trade today is a unique way to play it.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
Global #debt just hit a record $365 trillion.
Yet the ratio economists watch improved.
The trick: #inflation makes the economy look bigger, so the ratio falls. The yardstick just got longer.
🌐 greyswanfraternity.com
One number decides if millions of #pension retirements hold — and the funds pick it themselves.
Assume high returns, and you never admit you're short.
By honest math, many are under half funded. Someone always pays.
🌐 greyswanfraternity.com
Stocks hit records with twice as many falling as rising only twice before: 1929 and 1999. We just did it again.
But #AI isn't those bubbles.
1929 ran on margin, 1999 on hype. This is an industrial buildout — judged on balance sheets, not stories.
Today's Grey Swan Pro is a way to join the party in the hyperscalers — until the fat lady starts a new tune.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…