AdrianCrypto

Investment thesis for $BANANA @bananagun I believe Banana Gun is the best play to get exposure to memecoins, here's why: - $DOGE is already a $52B market cap (this would make it the 200th largest company listed on US stock exchanges) realistically how high can it go? - On the other end of the spectrum there were over 40,000 new tokens created yesterday on pump.fun picking one of those which does well is hyper gambling and nearly impossible. - $BANANA is very well positioned to generate a significant amount of fees regardless of which memecoins do well with a very strong moat on Ethereum / EVM chains + trying to break into the Solana market with their webapp. Since BTC broke $80K Banana has been generating over $300K in fees per day and ramping... this annualized would put it's fee metrics at $110M per year on a token that's market cap is only $185M. So on revenue Banana is trading at a less than 2x multiple and 40% of these fees are paid out to BANANA holders putting it's yield around 25%. For the foreseeable future I think these fees are both sustainable and positioned to grow. 1) Sustainability of market share Banana Gun has a monopoly to "snipe" new token launches on Ethereum. Banana aggregates all of its users orderflow in order to bid the highest fees and be the first buyers of the new launch, Banana is the first buyer or "bundle" 88% of the time, meaning users who are not using Banana are at an immediate disadvantage. This creates a positive feedback loop of -> More users use Banana to snipe -> More orderflow to be the highest bidder -> Win more first bundles / launches -> More users use Banana This helps Banana maintain a consistent 30-50% marketshare among telegram bots on Ethereum even while others are running incentive programs. It also gives Banana a naturally strong position on other EVM chains since it's an all in one product, for example on Base they hold a 15-40% marketshare. In October 2024 Banana did 3% of all frontend volume on Ethereum through just a TG bot which is quite impressive. As long as the memecoin sector is doing well there will continue to be new launches, Banana's position is extremely strong. 2) Fee Growth Memecoins are super hot right with the sector giants like DOGE/SHIB/PEPE adding +30B in market cap over the last 7 days... Once mega cap memes slow down a bit or top this newly added wealth and users searching for "the next big thing" will flow into new launches and smaller cap memes. This is where Banana thrives. Banana's fees are just starting to ramp up again and I think it's very possible they surpass March levels to something like ~500K/day with their current market position on Ethereum, Base and Solana. 500K a day in fees would be 182M a year in earnings, 40% of which back to the token holders is 73M/year. If Banana traded at a 10x multiple on this 73M we would be looking at ~$210 BANANA (730M market cap). Banana's future plans for growth rely on their upcoming webapp. Currently Banana Gun has two products an EVM Telegram bot and a Solana Telegram bot, soon they will be launching a webapp. You can think of the webapp like a Jupiter/Cowswap type front end but with many more features for advanced traders looking for the best execution and tooling for memecoins. On the Solana side this could allow Banana to grow its marketshare which is still quite low (single digit %s) and compete more with Photon/BullX. On the Ethereum side, especially with their extremely valuable orderflow it could position Banana to begin competing with players like Cowswap and 1inch. Supply Dynamics: Banana FDV is misleading and I think circulating market cap is a much more accurate number. There are no unlocks coming for Banana until the team starts vesting in Oct 2025, beyond that the rest of the tokens are in the treasury and will only be used in +EV ways (like for the Binance listing they had). I don't expect any new large supply increases for Banana. Overall I think Banana is trading pretty cheaply and has a lot of potential catalysts to grow. Given all these reasons and a bunch more I will continue to share I've allocated 57% of my portfolio to $BANANA.