Theo (@AllTheo) header
Theo (@AllTheo) profile picture

I look for mispriced markets

Joined November 2021
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Top trending on Fomo right now: 1. $ANSEM $51.8M MC +14% 2. $PIRATE $706K MC +135% 3. $MAGGIE $678K MC +15,468% 4. $FLOAT $12.2M MC +107% 5. $GSTOCK $4.56M MC +47% 6. $GTA6 $13.6M MC +11% 7. $TAOLF $198K MC +772% 8. $BITS $249K MC +2,595% 9. $GM $3.89M MC -36% 10. $invest $158k MC -24% Not going to touch many from this list, still think we have a ways to go before bottom
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Want to turn $100 into $1,000? Take all of these teams to win and thank me later
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Poly has Eizenkot at 99.65¢ to get the first mandate in Israel. That's basically done. Herzog already tapped him. The next PM market is a different contract. Eizenkot 70.7¢. Netanyahu still 17.3¢. He gets 28 days, maybe 14 more, to put together 61 seats. His bloc has 48. Bibi's has 53. If you bought the mandate ticket thinking you bought the PM, you bought the wrong market.
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In fact, we did all sell our DeGods FIWB
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lol Elon interaction and $claudia can’t even crack 10MM… We might be cooked
Who put your beliefs into your head? It probably wasn’t you.
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$BTC $75.7k and 40% off the high. $ETH $2,233 and 55% off the high. Both flat today after $1B+ in liquidations this week. Poly still has BTC tagging $70k in 2026 around 54%. Bottoms usually feel like this. Boring, quiet, nobody posting.
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You either take risks, or work for someone else that did.
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Federal minimum wage is still $7.25. College (tuition, room, board) runs about $24,868 this year. You'd need a 71-hour workweek at min wage to cover it. In 2000 a full-time min wage job still cleared the bill. Kids are cooked. money.com/pay-for-college-mi…
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Dec Fed on Polymarket right now: 25bp hike ~78.5¢ No change ~21.5¢ Payrolls this morning. If the print softens and that hike contract barely moves, that's the misprice.
October Nonfarm Payrolls soar to 165K, Exp. 70K, Last revised higher to 60K from 29K
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Are all the Finance bros just completely fucked?
Finance jobs are among those most at risk from AI, per Bloomberg:
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Today I learned the poorest fifth of American households make about $18k a year But they spend almost $38k The math ain’t mathing…
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Kalshi just launched single stock perps in America. Regulated. $300M traded the first morning and it was a stealth launch. The whole $HYPE bull case was being the only place to long and short stocks/crypto 24/7 with leverage. That moat got a lot smaller today.
Single stock perps (SSPs) are here. And they're a truly great product. You don’t need to pay rollover fees like with futures, they’re simpler to trade than options, and you can go short just as easy as you can go long. This is one of the most consequential products we’ve launched and I couldn’t be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m. Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚
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An earlier post from one of the victims…shows how fragile life is
Florida LearJet crash victims ID'd as tech entrepreneur, toddler kids, wife and nanny trib.al/5ihSQm8
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Texas Senate polls are basically tied. Poly has Talarico at 70c. 6M early votes in and everyone thinks they can read them. At 70c you're paying favorite prices for a coin flip. I'd rather hold dry powder till the first counties drop Tuesday.
New Senate polls - YouGov 🔵 Texas - Talarico +4 (Flip) 🔵 Ohio - Brown +2 (Flip) 🔵 Iowa - Turek +1 (Flip) 🔵 Michigan - El-Sayed +4 🔵 Maine - Jackson +5 (Flip) 🔵 Kansas - Hamilton +1 (Flip) 🟡 Neberaska - Tie
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$ETH funding most negative since the June bottom. Bitfinex whales sitting on the biggest long stack since 2022. Somebody's wrong. Usually it's the side paying funding.
$ETH is doing what it does best. Making retail uncomfortable while whales quietly increase their long exposure. 3.6x more longs than august. the market doesn't owe anyone a bounce, but this positioning is definitely something i'm keeping an eye on.
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The trades I'm proudest of this cycle are the ones I didn't take
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$SPCX back at the $135 IPO price. 161% revenue growth last quarter and it's trading like a lockup dump. Because it is one. Nibbling here, more under $130.
Over the last week I built a bottoms up SpaceX financial model through the end of 2028 The numbers that came out are insane There are wide error bars given how quickly things are changing but I wanted to distill something complicated into something that can at least be debated * This is not investment advice!!! ** Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder *** Past performance is not indicative of future results
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If you panic sell every red candle, good. You already know your pain point. Set the stop there before you enter, not after.
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$BTC 81k to 76k on a fed hold + binance hack headlines $1.1B in longs gone Whales took ~$202M of the dip my dry powder line is 75.7, the 50 week. Not chasing the bounce
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