The AGI Countdown

Palantir CEO Alex Karp says the AI labs are selling a future where you have no job and a tiny group owns everything: "Have no job, adversaries win, and everybody who does win is a small, tiny group of people living in a tiny place that believe because they eat vegetables and don't support war fighters, they deserve to have the total means of production of this country—and the rest of us should just sit back and absorb the cost of that revolution, which we're paying for." P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Sam Altman says the heaviest AI user in the world six and a half years ago used what the average person uses today, and he expects it to happen again: "Six and a half years ago, the world token leader was an OpenAI employee using about 100,000 tokens a month." "Now, the worldwide average of tokens per month, which I think tokens are the dumbest metric, but it's what we have. It's like 100,000." "And the token leader at OpenAI uses something in the hundreds of billions." "If that happens again, which I think it probably will, then in another six and a half years, the average person uses, let's say, 500 billion tokens a month." That's a five-million-fold jump in everyday AI use. P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

David Sacks says the panic over Google search falling below 50% of Alphabet's revenue misses what's really happening: "If you look at Google search revenue year over year, it was still up 12%. It increased from $56 billion to $63 billion. Google search is still thriving." "The reason why the share fell below 50% is because other Alphabet businesses are simply growing much faster. And the main one is Google Cloud, which basically doubled year over year to $37 billion." "So it's the rise of the Google Cloud business that has made Google search seem like it's on the decline." P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Ray Kurzweil still says human-level AI arrives in 2029, a date he has held since 1999, and that the singularity hits by 2045: "By 2045, we'll expand what we know at least a million times... That's why we call it the singularity." 2029 is three years away. Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Andrew Yang says "learn to code" went from the safest career advice to the worst in just 4 years: "They said to me that what we're going to see in the next 6 months outstrips what we've seen in the last 10 years cuz the rate of change is on a hockey stick and heading up." "There was one company that is selling autonomous coding for enterprises to big businesses and their revenue is up 100-fold in the last 12 months." "If that continues, it's going to eat a lot of the tech budgets from major corporates that used to go to humans. And so you're seeing the employment of recent computer science graduates fall off a cliff." "If you rewind what 4 years ago, what would we tell young people for a secure career, learn to code? And now the opposite of that is true." P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Elon Musk says Starlink is about to become your phone carrier. One Starlink account would cover free Wi-Fi through your home antenna and connect straight to your phone from the satellites, with enough bandwidth to watch video anywhere. Phones will need new hardware for it, but SpaceX is already building the network. P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp blasts AI slop companies: "The appearance of software working, is not software working." "The slop getting a lot of attention is dangerous in terms of the hyperbolic rhetoric—that there will be no jobs because of slop, nothing will work, we will have a god-like figure in the name of AI." "In fact, what actually does work is a platform built by a motley crew of highly-technical people who over 20 years have been maligned for being right." P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

In 2015, Sam Altman described OpenAI as a "company" sitting next to Elon Musk. Elon corrected him on the spot: "OpenAI is structured as a 501(c)3 nonprofit." So: a nonprofit, not a company, set up precisely so nobody would profit from it. Sam nodded along. He then ran it for the next ten years. Then turned OpenAI into a for-profit business worth $300 billion. With shareholders. With investors who expect a return. What Elon said in that interview wasn't a minor wording fix. It was the whole reason OpenAI existed. The nonprofit setup wasn't a legal detail. It was the promise. It was what set OpenAI apart from every other lab chasing money. Sam understood that in 2015. His co-founder corrected him live. He altered the structure regardless. The interview is out there. That correction is on tape. The conversion went through. Elon is now in court making exactly this argument. And the 2015 interview is the evidence. P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Sam Altman on why he chased AGI when everyone said it couldn't be done: "It just felt impossible." "I think most people would say like, of course that'd be the coolest thing ever, but it's totally impossible." "The more something seemed impossible, the more intrigued I was." "The idea that we could invent a technology that would let us do everything else... that always seemed innately incredibly appealing to me." P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Sam Altman says learning to code is no longer the safe bet for your future. “Learn to program was so obviously the right thing over a recent period of time, and now it’s not.” What he would build instead: “Become high agency.” And: “Get good at generating ideas.” “Be very resilient. Be very adaptable to a rapidly changing world.” “I think these are going to matter more than any specific skill.” “And I think these are all learnable.” P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Chamath says his company's AI token bill is doubling every 45 days while output gains barely move. "I sat down with my CTO today, I said how are we doing on token spend. And he said the most incredible thing, he said right now, our token costs are doubling every 45 days. I said well what is the downstream productivity? And he said maybe 5% max." "So my costs are doubling every 45 days, my upside is essentially flat. He said honestly, what we're finding out is that you need to use a lot more tokens to get to this next iteration of improvement because we've effectively already asymptoted." "We're going to take a step back and try to figure out what to do. I don't know how many other companies will actually go through this reckoning now, but the point is everybody in the next three or four years will for sure go through it." "I suspect that if you can get out now, you should get out now before all of that starts to seep into the water table. Because I think that's probably what allows you to get out at a huge price and raise a huge amount of money." P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Elon Musk explains why he thinks the phone, apps and operating systems are headed for extinction within 5-6 years, and how it plays out: "We're not going to have a phone in the traditional sense. What we call a phone will really be an edge node for AI inference, for AI video inference" "There won't be operating systems. There won't be apps in the future. It'll just be a device that is there for the screen and audio" "You'll get everything through AI. Whatever you can think of, or really whatever the AI can anticipate you might want, it'll show you" "Most of what people consume in 5 or 6 years, maybe sooner than that, will be AI-generated content. Music, videos" "There are people who have made AI videos using Grok Imagine that are several minutes long, 10 or 15 minutes, and it's pretty coherent" "The phone will just display the pixels and make the sounds that it anticipates you would most like to receive" P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Demis Hassabis on how little time is left to get ready for AGI: "There are some very short timelines out there, but even ours are 5 to 10 years, which is not long for institutions or things like that." He says he's worried the world isn't paying enough attention, and wishes there had already been far more international collaboration. And 5 to 10 years is DeepMind's cautious estimate. P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Elon Musk's timeline for the next five years: "In 5 years, digital intelligence will exceed the sum of all human intelligence. Within five years, there may be at least 100 million humanoid robots, possibly even 1 billion. The economy could double in size within 5 to 7 years because AI and robotics may increase output dramatically. The pace of change will be so fast that the world could look very different in just a few years." P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history’s greatest thinkers. 7,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/m… Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Elon Musk cautions that the time left is short: You have 3 years at most to keep earning from selling your work. After that, AI takes over most tasks, and paying people for their time stops making sense. The 200-year-old model, "I give you your salary in exchange for your time", will soon be over. This will set off the largest wealth transfer in modern history. People already making the shift get it. People waiting for the headlines will show up too late. In the end, what you own counts for more than how much you work. The smartest asset to build right now ranks above Bitcoin and land: an income stream powered by AI that compounds while you sleep. Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Alexandr Wang, Meta's chief AI officer: "Internally at Meta, we have seen cases where, if you develop the right agentic loop and have the right evaluation system and metric for the agents to optimize, a swarm of agents can accomplish more than a team of 100 engineers. They can do it very handily, actually, very easily." Wang was in conversation with Garry Tan, head of Y Combinator, at Startup School 2026. Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.

Dario Amodei says the countdown to AI writing all the code is now measured in months: "I have engineers within Anthropic who say I don't write any code anymore. I just let the model write the code. I edit it." "We might be six to 12 months away from when the model is doing most, maybe all of what SWEs do end to end." "If I had to guess, I would guess that this goes faster than people imagine." Interested in AI? Follow @AlltheLatestAI and never fall behind. I track ChatGPT, Claude, and how every new agent is changing how we work and think, then hand you the pure signals.