Aussie Turtles

It’s here! We’ve published a book. The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is not a system, it’s a philosophy. This book is a field manual for the builders, the thinkers, and the quiet ones who stay in the game long enough to catch the outlier. Available on Amazon now: lnkd.in/gmQWxYgn #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #BookLaunch #Discipline #ProcessOverPrediction #AussieTurtles

Battle of the Trends: The Leaders Change Again Six indexes gained in September. August’s winner was the only one to lose. SG Trend led at +4.3%, while Classic Trend retained its commanding lead since 2020. Recent performance and the longer record tell different stories. Our September report explores what changed, where trends held and why the monthly leaderboard deserves a longer view. Read the September Battle of the Trend Following Indexes on ATS Trading Solutions: aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #PortfolioDiversification

August turned the table. All seven trend indexes gained. July’s three weakest became August’s three strongest as trends began to hold. Classic Trend led at +5.3%. The Barometer rose from 30 to 55. aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #CTA #OutlierHunters

The market moved in July. The trends didn’t last. All seven benchmarks in the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes finished negative for a second consecutive month. But unlike June, July was not a story about old trends breaking and new ones forming. It was a story about persistence disappearing. Orange Juice surged, then reversed. Cocoa surged, then reversed. Energy broke out, ran for two weeks, then surrendered much of the move. Grains rose across all eight contracts, then fell across all eight. The TTU Trend Barometer swung from 64 to 30 during the month. Yet the seven indexes finished within just 2.0 percentage points of one another. That compression matters. Concentration, diversification, volatility targeting and factor dilution can produce very different outcomes when persistent trends exist. But none of those constructions can manufacture persistence when the market refuses to provide it. July was not short of movement. It was short of movement that lasted. Full report: Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: July 2026 aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #CTA #SystematicInvesting

Inside the Loop, Part Two. The finale. "Where did you get out?" "I didn't." Jerry says that is the only correct answer, and this episode explains why. Plus: Clausewitz as the Keynes of warfighting, why Marines are terrible at defence, and the one contract clause that cost me everything. 🎧 aussieturtles.com/episode-01… #TrendFollowing #JohnBoyd #Trading #Strategy

Every index lost money in June. Conditions for trend following improved. Both statements are true, and the reason they sit together is the most useful thing June had to teach. All seven benchmarks in the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes finished the month negative, an inversion of a May in which all seven finished positive. Over the same four weeks the TTU Trend Barometer climbed from 43 to 55, closing at the threshold where Neutral gives way to a favourable environment. The barometer counts trends forming. A portfolio holds trends already formed. Almost all of June's new strength was built on the downside, in petroleum, in the precious metals, in equities rolling over from records, and each of those moves ran against positioning the year's advance had built. New trends are paid for out of old ones. An improving environment and a losing month are not in tension. They are the same event seen at two points along a lag. Full report: aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #CTA #SystematicInvesting

Two Worlds, One Room: Marines Meet Trend Followers What does a Marine fighting in the fog of war have in common with a trend follower riding a breakout he cannot explain? More than you would think. In this special two-part episode of Turtle Talk, we did something we have never done before. We brought two worlds into one room. On one side, the trend followers. On the other, two Marines who have spent their careers studying how you act under fire when nothing is certain. It started when Rich, Jerry and Mike were invited onto the No Way Out podcast and discovered we were almost speaking the same language as the war camp. So we returned the favour and brought Mark "Moose" McGrath and Ben Ford onto Turtle Talk to keep the conversation going. We walk the old military strategists alongside classic trend following and ask one question at every turn: do the same answers hold on both sides of the door? Part One covers the first four ideas: 🔧 Friction, where every plan breaks the moment it meets the real world. Jerry tells the story of a 3am scramble after the 1992 British election. 🌫️ The Fog, where you can never see the whole picture. The For Want of a Nail verse, ripples on a pond, and the hurricane you cannot fast forward. 🔄 The Loop, where the trained hand acts before it decides. Jerry on the cocoa trade he barely felt, and Ben on getting his knee down on a motorbike. 🥁 Tempo, where rhythm beats raw speed. Mike on the three year bond short where doing nothing was the whole trade. The one idea underneath all of it: in war you have to predict, because nothing tells you where the enemy will be. In trend following you never predict, because the price already gives you the crowd's answer. Prediction on one side, following on the other. Listen to Part One here: 👉 aussieturtles.com/episode-01… #TrendFollowing #OODALoop #Trading #Uncertainty

When Convexity Has Nothing to Cut: The Quiet Month April gave us the year's widest dispersion. May gave us the narrowest. Every benchmark in the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes finished May inside roughly one percentage point of the others. Classic Trend led for a second straight month at +1.2%, but the margin was a fraction of April's. The reason sits in the trend environment. The TTU Barometer printed 43, 57, 45, 32 across the four weeks and broke below 40 into Weak territory for the first time in the sequence. Energy reversed direction in three of those four weeks as the Iran and Hormuz cycle swung between escalation and diplomacy, each move undoing the one before it. Here is the lesson underneath the numbers. Markets moved violently all month, and almost none of it persisted long enough to be captured. Volatility was everywhere and opportunity was scarce, because the two are not the same thing. Persistence, not movement, is the raw material of trend following, and in May it was the rarest commodity in the market. Classic Trend now stands at +149.3% since 2020, still leading every major risk-adjusted measure. BTOP50 holds the lowest drawdown at 9.7%. Read the full report here: aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #CTA #SystematicInvesting

The Punk Rocker of Trend Following What does it take to survive a 50% drawdown, dial the heat back up, and come out the other side with a 40-bagger on your chart? On Episode 13 of Turtle Talk, Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv sit down with special guest Mike Melissinos, one of the handful of genuinely uncompromising classic trend followers left standing. From a quiet summer at Bear Stearns to watching the GFC validate everything, from the trend following blues to feeling nothing when the big returns finally land, this is the honest, no fluff conversation the polished finance pods never give you. Plus the April 2026 review, SanDisk's astonishing run, and why classic trend following is punk rock. Listen here: aussieturtles.com/episode-01… #TurtleTalk #ClassicTrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #MikeMelissinos

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: April 2026 April was the strongest trend-following month of 2026 so far, and every benchmark finished positive. Classic Trend led at +6.7%, roughly twice the next-best result. TTU TF +3.5%. IASG TF +3.4%. Systematic Momentum +3.3%. SG Trend +2.98%. SG CTA +2.6%. BTOP50 +2.0%. The TTU Barometer round-tripped 66, 55, 48, 55, 50, 55 across five weeks. A tariff-driven commodity spike, a Hormuz reopening, a Hormuz re-closure, and a final week of uniform-direction energy strength delivered the bulk of the gains. The same convexity that produced March's drawdown produced April's outperformance. The peers, with lower convexity and more diversified construction, captured a smaller share of both. Full report: aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #CTA

March 2026: When Convexity Cuts Both Ways March ended trend following's two-month winning streak, with every benchmark finishing negative. A sustained three-week repricing of precious metals defined the month. Silver crashed 14.4% mid-March. Gold fell 9.6% in the same week. Energy pulled the other way, with WTI approaching $100 and Brent clearing $109. The dispersion across the seven benchmarks was 7.8 percentage points, the widest of the year. SG CTA was most defensive at -0.8%. Classic Trend gave back 8.6%, reflecting the larger embedded metals exposure carried in after February's explosive close. The TTU Barometer absorbed the pain and accelerated to 66% by month-end, a localised repricing, not a broader breakdown. Long-run picture unchanged: Classic Trend leads at +130.8% since 2020, with a cumulative advantage over the next-best benchmark exceeding 66 points. Read the full report: aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #CTA

Loose Pants & Big Trends: February 2026 Review No guests this month, just the three turtles going deep. February was a cracker for classic trend followers. But March has thrown a few spanners in the works, and Rich, Jerry, and Adam don't hold back on what it means, and what comes next. In Episode 12: February numbers: Classic Trend Index up 5.3% for the month, 14.6% for the quarter Energy breakouts: why European gas and Brent crude are the trades to watch Myth Busters: what Richard Dennis actually said about position sizing The real purpose of diversification in classic trend following 🎧 Listen now: aussieturtles.com/episode-01… #TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #MythBusters

February 2026: Another Strong Month for Trend Followers All seven trend-following indexes posted gains in February. Classic Trend led at +5.3%, with metals exploding in the final week. Silver surged 12.4% and gold extended to fresh all-time highs above $5,296. The full February Battle of the Trend Following Indexes is live now. aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #CTA

🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast — Episode 011: FX Arbitrage, Regime Change, and the Return of Classic Trend Episode 011 is live. Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv are joined by Sanjeev Lakhanpal of Horizon3 Investment Management for a conversation covering January's rare unanimity across all seven trend benchmarks, the vol-weighting vs loose pants debate, Horizon3's market-neutral FX swap arbitrage program, and why three decades of regime change point to a return of the classic CTA environment. 🎧 Watch or listen here: aussieturtles.com/episode-01… #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #FXArbitrage #OutlierHunting

Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – January 2026 January delivered a rare moment of unanimity. All seven trend benchmarks posted gains, with Classic Trend and BTOP50 sharing the monthly lead at +5.0%. Dispersion compressed to just 1.1 percentage points, the tightest on record. Classic Trend now stands at +140.0% since January 2020. BTOP50 proved that stability need not sacrifice upside. IASG leads the trailing twelve-month window at +9.5%. A powerful start to 2026, and a clear reminder that when trends align, the entire systematic universe moves together. aussieturtles.com/battle-of-… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicInvesting #OutlierHunting

Savouring the Trend with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen in Zurich As part of their ongoing Savouring the Trend series, CIO Adam Havryliv and Strategy Ambassador Richard Brennan travelled to Zurich to share an evening with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Over dinner at Ristorante Bindella, the conversation explored Niels’ dual contribution to systematic trading: from leading European and Asian investor relations at DUNN Capital Management, LLC, to building Top Traders Unplugged into essential listening for the industry’s most serious practitioners. It was an evening defined by discipline, consistency and respect for craft. You can read the full story here: aussieturtles.com/savouring-… #trendfollowing #systematictrading #SavouringTheTrend #NielsKaastrupLarsen #TopTradersUnplugged #AussieTurtles #ECCM

🎙 Why Most Equity Returns Come From Just a Handful of Stocks Episode 010 of Turtle Talk is live, featuring Cole Wilcox (@ColeWilcoxCIO) of Longboard Asset Management alongside Jerry Parker and Rich Brennan. We explore why indices dilute trend signals, how stock-level trend following captures long-duration outliers, and why robust, systematic processes matter when markets produce moves no backtest prepared us for. The conversation spans classic trend dispersion, recent sharp reversals across metals and livestock, and the structural forces that drive real compounding over time. 👉 Listen here: aussieturtles.com/episode-01… #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #OutlierHunter #AussieTurtles