Labor's primary vote has collapsed to be down over 47% in an electorate (and its predecessors) it has held since their inception almost 40 years ago.

Amidst the debate surrounding migration levels, I have had several people cite the AFR article from the pandemic era talking about dishwashers allegedly being paid $50 an hour. So let's explore that shall we. If dishwashers were suddenly being paid $99k per year over a protracted period, you would see all manner of unskilled individuals (or even some skilled ones) move into washing dishes. After all why would someone work their ass off in a dead end job in cleaning or aged care for less money, when they can earn above median full time earnings. It's here that Australia has a good insight into what can be challenging work and labour market economics, which comes from the RBA. Amidst the enormous rise in healthcare employment (Chart 1) and superior relative wage outcomes in the sector for some workers, it has been sucking in labour from other industries. As Chart 2 illustrates, this has occurred across every industry to vastly varying degrees. It's clear in the data that the healthcare sector is pulling in employees from other elements of the economy at quite a pace, far outstripping those coming to or back to the sector via previously being unemployed. In short, basic labour market economics are working. The healthcare sector is demanding additional workers, it is paying the wages required to get those workers from other industries and the labour market rebalances accordingly. It's absolutely true that labour market rebalancing takes time and can throw up challenges, but that doesn't mean it should be avoided. That is part of how productivity is enhanced in a well functioning economy, in an ideal world the labour goes to the jobs and industry where it can produce the most relative value, whether it be social or economic. Graph source: rba.gov.au/publications/smp/…

This is what a property bust looks like when government and central banks aren't riding to the rescue when price falls start to reach mid to high single digits (aka Australia in almost every property downturn in the last 40 years)

There is a common narrative that job X or Y is low paid, and needs to be paid better. Well okay. Why isnt it being paid better? In anything approaching a free market economy on a long enough time horizon, wages will rise to a level that ensures demand will be met or productivity will rise so more can be accomplished with less labour. But when you have a massive artificial expansion of the labour force in an age demographic, say 20-30 years of age, its unsurprising that there is now more supply than demand for these roles, suppressing wages growth. Throw in that at the average temporary visa holders are exploited and underpaid according to some studies, why would an unscrupulous business owner pay more When there is a large supply of additional labour, that is heavily exploitable. Its basic supply and demand level economics, and if the current economic strategy worked as advertised, we wouldnt have had near 0% growth in the private sector economy in per capita terms foe the last 14 years.

Auction results - Sold To Listed - Sydney 24.6% (30.8% last weekend) - Melbourne 40.9% (36.7%) Sydney absolutely collapses to its worst result since my records began. If this is reflected in SQM's results come Tuesday, this is a market deeply in trouble. Melbourne a strong bounce vs last week and a massive divergence developing between the two cities. Although to what degree the now required auction disclosure rules in Victoria could be boosting clearance rates is unclear. Overall auction volumes in both locales remain depressed compared with this time last year, which is playing a major role in supporting the market. Without this factor results would be significantly worse. If you want the normal full round up let me know in the comments, I'm out for the night. Both cities markets remain in a deeply challenging place and on these numbers within the zone of major price falls. Methodology in graphic below. I produce this data entirely unpaid, so if you would like to make a one off contribution to support this effort you can do so here: buymeacoffee.com/tarric #AvidAuctions

One of the biggest mistakes one can make is expecting people, especially groups to act rationally in their self interest. South Korea is a good example of this. There are major cultural issues that have serious economic and social consequences, but there just isnt enough pressure to force change despite the extremely high stakes. In this Australia is not immune. The housing market is strangling productivity, tanking the fertility rate and undermining broader economic growth. But do people accept that change is needed, even when it comes to the value of their house? Oh my, no. The economy must be tanked into absolute oblivion and reams tore off the social fabric before many will realize the enormous harm that their chosen priority has created and propagated. Only far down the road when far more damage is done, probably when it's too late will the penny drop. Even being on course for oblivion is not enough of a catalyst for truly transformative change.

While AI can be a great tool, it regularly outputs slop because the people using it are too uninformed to know the difference. Things like mixing up average and median across different data sets, and folks arent reading what their own AI generated chart says.

Australia: "We are a bunch of fun loving larrikins who dont mind breaking silly rules" Also Australia: "If this can of Coke doesnt fit under your entirely safely modified car, that is illegal and could be costly to remedy. Even if the car is like that from the factory."

Cook, baker, pastrycook, hairdresser, beauty therapist, accountant Australia's skills shortage.....

If AI and humanoid robotics are set to take huge numbers of jobs, how does it any way make sense to run a huge (per capita) migration intake. Where even its proponents admit how hard it is to get rid of temporary visa holders once they are here.

I am 100% with Team Poland on this one.