@BATMongoose

Beat, raise, explore strategic options. All opinions sourced from much smarter ppl

 United States
Joined November 2010
  • Tweets18.9K
  • Following1.9K
  • Followers2.9K
475Media
Hot take: Everything is cyclical, nothing is secular. There are only longer cycles and shorter cycles. At the end of THE GREAT CYCLE we are all dead and the Universe itself burns cold 🥁
RTB 🚀 - AKA Mr Wen, Based Kitten
@RaisingTheBAR4724 Jul 2022
Hot take: a company who’s growth goes from 50% to 0% in recession is just as cyclical as a business who’s growth goes from 25% to -25% in a recession Multiples reflect trend growth so only 2nd derivative “Secular growth” favorites are actually extremely cyclical #EFT
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Ha, the Americans want to “look into” Brazil’s election results. Perhaps focus on your own third rate “democracy” where the doofus that once attempted to overthrow the government is now looting it on behalf of his family and billionaire friends.
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And that Donald Trumo finds this very upsetting.
Alonso Gurmendi@Alonso_GD19h
A reminder that Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27 year prison sentence for plotting a coup and planning to assassinate Lula
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"Everything we love is on the line" in the US election. I argue that President Trump has systematically undone the strategy that since the 19th century has made the US the world's leading country. He has eroded our sources of greatness. So what's at stake isn't just affordability or data centers or the Iran war. It's America's future: nytimes.com/2026/10/24/opini…

Opinion | What’s at Stake in the Midterms (Gift Article)

The fundamental issue is Trump’s shredding of the model that made America the world’s leading country.

nytimes.com
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THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish? there were signs, there are always signs 🤣 free link: hub.tslombard.com/the-perkin… inspired by @citrini
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$LQDA went crazy b/c physician commentary from CHEST suggests PH-ILD isn't going away and $1B remains on the table for 2027. FWIW I expect mgmt to go all out to hit $1B in 2027 and don't expect the company to be public in 2028.
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🫡
Yet Another Value Empire@YetAnotherValueOct 23
New post! Farewell yetanothervalueblog.com/p/fa…

Farewell

It’s a little bittersweet to write this post (and record the attached podcast), as this will be my last post / podcast.

yetanothervalueblog.com
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Gorsuch: So the government’s contention is that it’s illegal to be named Dan Sullivan? Solicitor General: Yes, Justice, if someone already has that name. Alito: And how would the death penalty *not* be an appropriate remedy?
The Washington Post
@washingtonpostOct 23
Breaking news: The Justice Department has moved to preemptively block certification of the results of Alaska’s Senate race if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan loses his tight race against Democrat Mary Peltola next month. wapo.st/47GV3EC

DOJ seeks to block Alaska Senate result if Republican incumbent narrowly loses

In a lawsuit, the Justice Department cited confusion over two similarly named candidates, including Republican Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan.

washingtonpost.com
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In Zucman's world, if you wave your hands and say something is one-off, people won't adapt their behaviour. "Rational expectations!" This has curious implications. If it's rational to do the tax once, by symmetry, it's rational to do it again. A second, "one-off" surprise. 🧵
Gabriel Zucman
@gabriel_zucmanOct 21
This Hoover Institution study, which has fueled the deluge of ads (more than $200 million spent by billionaires so far) to defeat the California billionaire tax, is spectacularly misleading. Let me explain its crucial flaw. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Zucman argues that the tax will raise his projected revenue because billionaires who leave CA after 1/1/26 will be taxed anyway. At least $542B of net worth (Page, Brin, Thiel) departed the state by 12/31/25. The entire thread is a misleading denial of this fact. ft.com/content/d66976… nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/… forbes.com/sites/forbeswe…
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Very funny that billionaires are like “I am leaving”. And Zucman’s response is “sorry no, my theory doesn’t allow this”
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$TSLA updated an old friend. $1.5trn market cap. $2bn cumulative core FCF since inception (red bars). Best described as a $100bn run-rate revenue science project that never has and never will make money.
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The numbers mean nothing it’s just a meme asset.
James Chanos
@RealJimChanosOct 20
So $SPCX is forecasting $500B to $1T in AI ARR at YE 2027, on $500B of capex (10 GW increase)?! This is a 1-2x revenue/investment ratio as the entire industry is now at 0.3x. Their 3Q AI capex was only $16B. They had better get going…
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Another thing to note about $IMPP is that Vafias might be bailed out by tankers going apes* but his decision to diversify to bulkers was incredibly bad timing.
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NAV updates LOL. STFU and do some buybacks $IMPP
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfundOct 19
Harry gives an $IMPP update. Says NAV is $14.93. Or $11.72 fully diluted. Total of 24 vessels on the water now
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The New York City mayor deserves a new cult following—among pragmatists, @jonathanchait argues. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…

Mamdani Is the Centrist We’ve Been Waiting For

The New York City mayor deserves a new cult following—among pragmatists.

theatlantic.com
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The fact that $NVDA will not allow any of these things to stand on their own is a pretty bad sign IMO. If you are confident in the ecosystem you let at least a few firms fail on their own merits.
Amir Efrati
@amirOct 20
👀news about the neocloud liquidity & credit crisis: Nvidia in talks to invest many hundreds of millions of dollars in Firmus, which just pulled its IPO
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It’s incredible how many large cap stocks are pricing in Elon Musk being a serial confabulist
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$AHT has sold $1B of hotels over the last year, continues to sell 1 a month for $20 - 30M, and has just under $2B left so equity unlock is very close here.
EagleFangCapital@CapitalFangOct 20
$AHT - I meant WORTH a hell of a lot more than $2.50
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Unprecedented corruption in normal terms. Just another day in Trumpworld
Tyler Pager@tylerpagerOct 20
SCOOP: Julio Herrera Velutini, a Venezuelan billionaire, really wanted a pardon. He got it not long after his daughter hired Alina Habba, a lawyer close to Trump, in a deal worth more than $50 million. Habba was also working at DOJ at the time. nytimes.com/2026/10/20/us/po…

A Billionaire Wanted a Trump Pardon. His Family Gave Alina Habba a $50 Million Deal.

Julio Herrera Velutini, a prominent Venezuelan, was seeking clemency. He got it not long after his daughter gave Ms. Habba, a lawyer close to President Trump, an extraordinarily lucrative job.

nytimes.com
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$AHT - keep in mind. Monty couldn't BK this thing and risk losing the management contract. So instead, the management company will start buying stock and "eventually" make a play for the whole thing.
EagleFangCapital@CapitalFangOct 20
$AHT - and there's the end game after the $BHR fiasco. Ashford buying $AHT stock in the open market to the tune of 2.5% per quarter. The most dislocated stock in the entire market, now has a chance to work. ashfordhospitalitytrust.q4ir…

ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST ANNOUNCES $17 MILLION ADVISORY FEE WAIVER, SHARE PURCHASE COMMITMENT FROM...

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. (NYSE: AHT or the "Company") today announced that its advisor, Ashford Inc., has agreed to waive approximately $17 million of advisory fees that would otherwise be...

ashfordhospitalitytrust.q4ir.com
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by the way, the fact that they keep giving him these tests means that they are not trying to figure out if he has dementia. They already know that. They are monitoring the rate of his decline.
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