Co-Founder of @BritainElects. Senior Data Journalist for the @NewStatesman. Borough Councillor for Chester's city centre, West Cheshire

United Kingdom
Joined March 2017
The 2026 Budget will be make-or-break for Andy Burnham and John Healey; its reception by voters will set the narrative for the rest of this Parliament. In 2012, the “Omnishambles” budget all but wrecked the Conservative Party’s advantage on the economy. (Though only Labour could squander the opportunity.) Talk of a “cost of living crisis” rang true in some sections of society, notably the Labour seats where Labour canvassers were canvassing, but not in the more middle-class marginals that mattered. That one budget helped give rise to voter unrest, the onset of Ukip and the serious chance that Ed Miliband could take Number 10. It wasn’t to be, but politics hinged on it for a while. The Liz Truss mini-Budget (or should I say the Kwasi Kwarteng mini-Budget) of 2022 crashed Tory reputations on the economy on a scale unseen since Black Wednesday in the 1990s. It sent Labour soaring, and voters warmed to Keir Starmer as much as they ever would – which was: not much. But it had enough of an impact as to make his Labour Party inoffensive enough for voters to soften their turnout against him in 2024. @BNHWalker asks: What will the budget do to brand Burnham? newstatesman.com/politics/po…
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🚨 BREAKING: Ontario Premier Doug Ford just canceled Elon Musk’s Starlink contract and banned all U.S. companies from government contracts in response to Trump’s economic war with Canada. “It’s done, it’s gone,” Ford said. “We won’t award contracts to people who enable and encourage economic attacks on our province and our country.” And just to be clear: “They only have President Trump to blame.” So Trump starts a trade war, and now American businesses are getting locked out of Canada. This isn’t “tough negotiating”—this is our closest ally shutting the door on us while Trump pretends he’s “winning.” MAGA wanted an economic war? Well, they just got one. And it’s American companies and workers who are about to feel the pain. FOLLOW:@johnfkjuniorq
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Brazil 🇧🇷 is not out of the woods yet. Lula and his supporters will celebrate tonight but as the New York Times report there is a chance these elections could be annulled due to confusion over extending the voting hours from 5 to 7 pm. If that happens it will be a major crisis.
BREAKING: Lula da Silva has won the presidential elections in Brazil 🇧🇷
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Swap Lula for Burnham and 2022 for 24 and I'm tentative to say, whatever happens in the next few years, we'll be making the same observation here in 28/29. xitter.cf/OwenWntr/status/211452…
Lula improved on his 2022 performance in municipalities with higher incomes
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Lula improved on his 2022 performance in municipalities with higher incomes
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Bookies are vibes exhibit #30191
🇧🇷Brazil runoff on @Kalshi, in one chart. Bolsonaro traded at 80%+ for two days. In the space of about an hour this afternoon, Lula went from 20% to 70% and Bolsonaro collapsed to 31%, on the heaviest volume of the market's life. The bottom panel tells the story: low volumes all weekend, then everything at once as results came in. Track live on @TheTerminal
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What needs appreciating is the final polls were 51-49, v much what was said for the EU referendum. 51-49 is no polling margin for anyone to gain confidence off, ever.
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Most of the country has swung to Lula since round 1.
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quite possibly
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They did it! The students won! Serbia 🇷🇸
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Google illegally cleared an estimated 250,000 trees across 330 hectares of forest in Muhos, northern Finland, to prepare for a new AI data center before completing mandatory environmental impact assessments And another 150,000 trees felled at Otanmäki theguardian.com/environment/…
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Deleting the Calverley post. Hadn't appreciated the longstanding Con candidate whose name is Carter. Had only clocked the swings to and from it being a marginal
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Thit post contains tree errors.
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Class.
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The list sent by Harold Wilson to his cabinet of “little things that mean a lot”, including the protection of pubs, concessionary fares for the elderly, empty office blocks and “the future of the pint”. Echoes of this in Burnham’s small but popular policies today.
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“I’m sorry that you’re having to be put up when the Secretary of State can’t be bothered to come” Hoyle absolutely furious at Fanbulleh and DESNZ ministers
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You gotta be kidding me.
No wonder people think PHP is dead. Turns out... nope.
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In *every* election for *both* House and Senate since 1998, polls have overestimated Democrats by more in red states than blue states (and vice versa)
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