
Geroscientist. #OpenHallmarks Inventor. EuroMaximalist 🇪🇺 k/acc nucleotides over atoms & bits
Lisbon, Portugal
Joined November 2014
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Contrarian opinion: I am not convinced that aging occurs in waves.
It quickly became memetic. I am seeing it in conference presentations taken as an established fact.
I think that the stats are shaky, and inflection points unlikely on a continuous biological system, namely at the population level.
Amazing post! This also happens with tech-bro talk about grinding until you are successful and only then have a family. The worlds that men are missing…
If I had known families can be like this—not even to have it but to simply know it exists and thus is possible in the real world—I don’t think the antinatalists would have been able to have a hold on me up to the end of my 20s.
I think people also vastly underestimate the power of words and just how much they can heal. I remember an outburst by a conservative man at ARC 2025 where he gave a short passionate romantic speech in private about how it’s a joy to treat women—and now singular; his wife—well. And he mentioned many beautiful examples of what he meant by that. He says he would never say it this vividly or at all publicly, but if you think like this, you should. If you have a vision of just how high it’s realistic to aim, or to wait and search for, so much unnecessary heartbreak and worse could be avoided.
Diogo Barardo, Longevity Scientist 🇪🇺 retweeted
One of the most worrying risks linked to frontier AI is extreme power concentration.
The only way to avoid extreme power concentration is to ensure we have multiple independent providers of frontier AI models, including open-source options.
So simple, yet so cool!
Whoa- this is the most fantastic pedagogical tool I’ve encountered in as long as I can remember (which is a helluva high bar, considering who I live with).
I’m so excited to have my 6yo play with it! And you all should too.
anyhumanever.com/
Diogo Barardo, Longevity Scientist 🇪🇺 retweeted
That would be nice. Or people could just learn the simple 900-day rule. If the controls approach 900 days and you see lifespan extension on top of that, it's probably a real effect. If your "long-lived" mice don't live at least 900 days, don't get too excited. There's a decent chance it won't be reproducible.
@Aging_Scientist actually performed and published a nice analysis showing this works pretty well, and it takes only seconds to implement: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3933…
Replying to @mkaeberlein @mike_lustgarten
Perhaps every Kaplan–Meier plot for mice should also have a standardised control on the same plot so that this is more obvious.
Diogo Barardo, Longevity Scientist 🇪🇺 retweeted
The sociologist Susan Pickard chose career over motherhood. She writes about being the last of her line.
compactmag.com/article/daugh…
This is such a great post!
Something that comes to mind:
Optimal compression will require estimation of the information content of a source, but the set of questions used is not complete and irredundant. In other words, could we find something like the smallest set of factual question that when answered contains all the information in the source.
This would also provide a stronger lower bound for lossless compression.
✨ New post! "Knowledge compressor"
We're all writing more specs. Pretty soon they add up to real tokens! How can we get rigorous about compacting that context in a way that doesn't impact model understanding?
githubnext.com/posts/knowled…
Discussion on HN: news.ycombinator.com/item?id…
Diogo Barardo, Longevity Scientist 🇪🇺 retweeted
Great thread from @GerontologyMike on the recent discussion around the hyperfunction theory.
One important point is that people once argued that cellular senescence was essentially entropy-driven and multifactorial, even developing sophisticated mathematical models to explain this.
But it turned out that replicative senescence in human cells is driven by telomere shortening, a specific biological timekeeper that can be overridden by telomerase.
Likewise, for programmatic theories of aging, there is growing evidence that epigenetic changes may serve as biological timekeepers from development to aging.
Peter Fedichev recently posted a Substack critical of Pedro Magalhaes’ theoretical paper titled “A Brief History of the Hyperfunction Theory of Aging and Future Directions.” Peter’s Substack is pasted below. Unlike Peter, I liked Pedro’s review. I found it illuminating in that it shows some of the history of how one truth-seeking gerontologist struggled to find a model of aging that best fits experimental data. I think Pedro is right about many of his conclusions. Here I add my two cents on this important ongoing debate:
Pedro’s paper is a discussion of the evolution of his conceptual model of the central mechanisms of aging together with some reasoning that led him to eventually lean toward programmatic models. By “programmatic” he means that the genetic program that regulates the pace and complex steps of turning a single cell (the fertilized egg cell) into a human being with trillions of cells extends into the aging process. The idea is that as we age, these processes continue in an unhelpful manner leading to “hyperfunction” (i.e. the progression of development leads to changes that damage the organism in what we call “aging”).
Peter largely objects to Pedro’s model saying it requires “A locus, where the schedule is kept. A timebase, so the schedule has a tempo. And a channel, carrying instructions from the locus to the targets.” He then describes mathematic models that do not require the above.
I must say, as much as I value mathematics and physics, when applied to biology and medicine, mathematical models to try to predict yet-undiscovered molecular processes within actual living cells has a mixed track record. For example… Cell senescence (the Hayflick phenomenon) used to be considered as entropy on display, complex deterioration that we would never understand or intervene in. Sohl, D. A., & Witten, M. (1995) wrote a paper titled Mathematical modeling of cellular aging and senescence: A general model of the Hayflick limit. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 175(2), 117–128. They analyzed cell population dynamics using systems of differential equations and stochastic matrices to account for the heterogeneous decay observed in human diploid fibroblasts. They argued that senescence reflected a high degree of systemic biological complexity that could not be explained by simple uniform mechanisms.
Based on empirical data at Geron we found the telomerase gene and showed that it alone could immortalize cells. The mathematical modeling, even when performed at about the same time, was wildly off-track.
Similarly, it was widely accepted prior to the cloning of Dolly the sheep that the reprogramming of a mammalian genome by SCNT wasn’t possible. Indeed McGrath and Solter stated in 1984 “the cloning of mammals by nuclear transfer is biologically impossible.” We now know SCNT can even can reverse cell aging (our Science paper in 2000).
Back to Peter’s statement that programmatic theories require a timebase, tempo, and channel to actuated the clock, I think he is exactly right. But I would suggest such pathways exist and regulate developmental timing (heterochrony). Example in point, the increased lifespan of humans vs non-human primates widely recognized to be due to heterochrony (neoteny).
Bottom line, IMO, science best progresses by proposing a hypothesis, identifying experiments to test and potentially falsify that hypothesis, then modifying the hypothesis to fit those new empirical observations. Experiments to test the role of molecular pathways involved in heterochrony and development in aging are currently underway and before the end of this decade we will have a much clearer understanding which model is most accurate. My prediction is that the heterochrony pathways will tie together observations about dietary restriction, mTOR, and regeneration, etc.. The development of these models will develop and function (or hyperfunction) and time will tell…
xitter.cf/fedichev/status/209010…
@jpsenescence
@aubreydegrey
@fedichev
No-one that says “I am going to live forever” was ever proven wrong during their lifetime.
And this is one of the big issues.
World models are the way! Congratulations.
Replying to @HavenFeng
[schema] handles the state and mechanism in one editable program, a symbolic world model. It designs experiments to verify hypotheses, backtests the program against history, and plans inside its world at zero action cost.
Diogo Barardo, Longevity Scientist 🇪🇺 retweeted
[schema] handles the state and mechanism in one editable program, a symbolic world model. It designs experiments to verify hypotheses, backtests the program against history, and plans inside its world at zero action cost.
“You really have to work so hard. It’s so hard. And I think that’s misunderstood.”
Eileen Gu, the 22-year-old Stanford student, runway model, and only action-sport athlete to win three medals apiece at two Olympic Games (Beijing 2022, Milano Cortina 2026) has long been a subject of fascination. At Cannes Lions, she opens up about what people don't understand about being "the best" at their craft.
So there is a g factor for LLMs?
💻Tired of running so many slow, expensive benchmark evals across every checkpoint?
Try ✨BenchPress✨ at microsoft.github.io/benchpre…: provide a few benchmark scores, then get predictions for the remaining ~100 benchmarks, with trust probabilities and calibrated 90% prediction intervals.
How does this work? In his original post (xitter.cf/DimitrisPapail/status/…), @DimitrisPapail first tried the idea as a fun question: collect model-by-benchmark scores into a matrix, find its low-rank structure, and use matrix completion to predict missing benchmark scores from a few observed ones.
We expanded this into a full system: a fully audited 84-model x 133-benchmark score matrix, an optimized matrix-completion predictor, and a reliability layer for trust probabilities and 90% prediction intervals.
Beyond predicting missing scores, we also suggest practical seed benchmark sets. The five-probe set {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} recovers the rest of a model's public score profile with a MedAE of 3.93 points. A lower-cost set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} reaches 4.55 points.
See more details below 🧵1/7
This work is with @DimitrisPapail at AI Frontiers, a boutique research lab inside @MSFTResearch.
Diogo Barardo, Longevity Scientist 🇪🇺 retweeted
How a Shipping Billionaire Spent His Nights
Aristotle Onassis loved the loneliness of working far into the night.
Most of the time, he was not really conscious of his reasoning or thought processes, except that they usually involved a struggle and ultimate conquest of himself.


























