Joined May 2021
pairs trading for dickheads when an online “kwant trader” starts writing about pairs trading i usually want to stab myself in the dick. but, since i am both an enormous hypocrite and a better writer than the rest of you, i am going to talk about pairs trading today.
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Steal ideas, not implementation. I see you, with your "small but beautiful" pot of capital, trying to make it bigger. A🧵on easy games, stealing ideas, and not competing in games you don't need to compete in. 1/n
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
This is genuinely insane The biggest problem with building your own dashboard for markets is data You can now pull the most important data into your AI and do it for free I will be integrating all of this into my software I use for mapping the flows of capital
🚨 LIQN MCP + AGENTIC FACTOR TRADING 🚨 We built LIQN to level the financial playing field. Today, our open source MCP is live bringing institutional grade factors directly to your AI agents. demo below. Here is what you can do today: • DATA: Pull near real time platform & factor data directly into @Grok or your local AI environment to analyze • PORTFOLIOS: Combine custom factors into a single portfolio and weight dynamically (e.g., Inverse Volatility) • ROBINHOOD: Agentically execute LIQN factors via our MCP on @RobinhoodApp • IBKR: Route live order execution directly to @IBKR • GROK BOT: Set up automated EOD summaries and quantitative risk model readouts @bot You are bounded only by your creativity. Try example MCP prompts like: ⚒️ "Bring me back a list of LIQN MCP tools, a brief description of each, and how I can use them" 1️⃣ "Build me a basket of the top 10 names in MOST SHORTED, MAG7, and HyperGrowth SaaS. Weight it inverse volatility." 2️⃣ "Build me a basket of Energy Majors, MAG7, and Uranium Miners. Equal weight it." 3️⃣ "Build me a basket of AI Security, top 10 names in MOST SHORTED (Large Caps), and top 5 names in SHORTS PILING IN (Large Caps). Weight it inverse volatility." We’re expanding the MCP all fall. Drop your feature requests and workflow ideas.. we will be releasing benchmarks for leading labs as we test them getting started here: liqn.ai/connect/directions
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
"Crypto is the dumbest market in the world" Scott Phillips (@ScottPh77711570) runs HyperTrend — $20M of his own capital, one losing year in six. His edge? Picking the table big firms can't sit at. "There's no second-best counterparty in crypto. You see crime, you run towards it — crime is the foundation of edge." We cover: - Why crypto still has edge in 2026 — even when your uncle is talking about Bitcoin at Thanksgiving - The simple rules (buy 20-day highs, top-20 coins) that print through any market - Why stacking trend + momentum + carry gets you there from a spreadsheet — no automation required - Price-insensitive buyers (Saylor), price-insensitive sellers (North Korea) & why both are permanent alpha - The 90-day Binance listing short — an edge hiding in plain sight in market maker contracts - Why most shit coins trend to zero — and how to trade the ones that don't - Building a tokenized, permissionless DeFi hedge fund on hyperliquid — 2 & 20, fully on-chain - Why the best quant firms are run by near-non-verbal autists with one translator Thank you so much @ScottPh77711570 for coming on the pod! Highlights: 01:04 Table selection and the math of competitive alpha 06:21 Why basic trend following yields outsized Sharpe in crypto 08:49 Why market inefficiency persists despite institutional inflows 14:58 Price insensitive buyers: Cults, VCs, and North Korean hackers 17:17 Factor analysis and the size-decay effect in shitcoins 25:40 The structural edge in mid-frequency crypto strategies 32:43 Tokenized DeFi vaults and on-chain hedge fund governance 40:43 Designing a robust portfolio: Equal weighting vs. MVO 44:21 Sourcing alpha from ghost chains and VC exit liquidity 49:58 Exploiting market maker contracts and post-listing drift 53:55 Operational alpha: Managing margin and manipulated funding rates 01:01:13 Shifting from quant to CEO 01:11:28 How to bridge the mentorship gap with elite traders 01:22:38 Building network triads: The secret to compounding social capital 01:29:23 Why 10x goals require total identity transformation
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
Excited to announce Options 101! It's a site that provides free, no-ads, no-shill education on financial options (calls + puts). The first course is one I'm now teaching this fall at Charles University in Prague. Lecture notes, videos, assignments. options-101.com/
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How do you get the HyperTrend airdrop? There's only one way You deposit funds in our vault, earn (incredibly high) yield on them, and get rewarded Sybilling doesn't help you, nor should it The idiocy where perp dexes paid for non-economic activity is over
My 2c on the kinetiq:native airdrop "fArMeRs" aren't the type of users who will stick around, become part of a community, grow and support it I didn't *farm* hyperliquid, I used it, made a ton of money trading, loved the product, and thought it would deliver on at least some of its promises So fuck farmers. Fuck them right in their stupid whiny mouths @0xOmnia Sure the communication around this kinda sucked, but I like the concept and I'm thinking about adopting part of it for HyperTrend (although our airdrop is inherently hard to game)
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Replying to @investingidiocy
GM Rob! It's a no-KYC crypto hedge fund built into a smart contract Running ~150 handcrafted features on crypto derivatives, with a quite sophisticated HFT/MM as the execution engine, continuously rebalancing towards ideal weights. Portfolio is a cost aware MVO /1
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Oh god, the replies to that tweet are a greatest hits of fintwit’s worst takes. Passive inflows, dealer hedging, negative gamma exposure, positive gamma exposure, vanna/charm, “the algos”, front running... please give me a second while I claw out my goddamn eyes.
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
I see this point get brought up a ton and it's actually very valid at first glance so I want to educate everyone, so strap in for a longer post. When you buy or sell options on @DeriveXYZ, Deribit, Paradex, wherever, you're not buying or selling to those platforms, you're trading with and against these "hoe ass market makers", to which we'll shorten to hoe ass mm's. The platforms themselves are just aggregators for hoe ass mm desks to give you quotes. Most of the same hoe ass mm's are on many or all the different platforms. Let's use $85,000 $BTC calls for Oct9 as an example. If you want to go buy a couple calls, you can go hit the resting liquidity in the order book and get very close pricing to what is called "mark". If you look in the order book, you'll see there's bids at $1100, "mark" at $1150, and asks at $1200. Mark pricing is the theoretical price of the option based on Black-Scholes pricing (hoe ass mm math blah blah blah), but it is not necessarily the mid price of what market participants price the option at. Since $BTC is puking right now, hoe ass mm's might be "axed" in the direction to buy $BTC exposure, so they'll give more attractive pricing to sell $BTC and charge more to buy it from them. Different desks may be axed in different directions, but generally, pricing is based on similar formulas and volatility levels. If you want to buy a few hundred $BTC calls instead of just a few, you'll need to go use RFQ instead, otherwise you risk moving the market (slippage) too much yourself, or only executing on one leg of a structure you intended to be multi-leg. When you RFQ, the hoe ass mm is now taking on that slippage because you're essentially slamming a market order. So they widen out their quotes to take this into account. It's important to remember that hoe ass mm's are not just hoe ass mm's, they are also pussy ass mm's, and they aim to be what's called "delta neutral". This means they generally want to just make money by charging spreads and not actually holding the directional exposure being on the other side of these calls would give them. 100 of these $85k calls gives me ~35 $BTC worth of exposure right now, which is exposure they'd need to hedge. As this $85,000 call gets closer to being in the money (🙏), the exposure I get from these calls keeps going up, and they have to keep buying more $BTC at higher and higher prices to remain delta neutral. And if $BTC starts to go down again, they'd sell at lower prices. They are quite literally forced to buy high and sell low in this case. On top of that they are paying fees, potentially disadvantageous funding rates, compute/infrastructure, and just inherently have expenses and a desire to at least earn more than a risk free rate of call it 10%, otherwise why go through the trouble. If this sounds familiar, this is essentially impermanent loss, the very issue passive LPs face for on chain liquidity providing, and the very reason you pay them fees to passively be quote against as price moves against them. Most LPs do not get paid enough though, and the majority are actually losing money relative to impermanent loss. This is actually enormously bullish for on chain options, but that's another post. 95% of the time when you buy any option in any situation, whether on Derive, Deribit, or Robinhood, you are in negative PNL at first. Some people might point out that if you're always executing at a small loss, aren't options -ve? Options pricing may be -ve at that exact moment in time on the trade, but trading them can still be extremely +ve in the context of your portfolio construction and what it allows you to do. You can't replicate the convexity, flexibility or path independence that options give you via perps, and I'm willing to pay a little extra for those features. A good analogy is that when you sit down at a poker table in a casino, they charge what's called "rake", call it $5 per hand. Assuming a normal distribution of cards and equally skilled players, playing poker in the casino is -ve because of this rake. But in reality, it can be extremely profitable to play poker in a casino if you think you have edge over the other players, and the casino is just charging you for access to these braindead idiots, certainty that you'll get paid and generally not shot, one free water bottle per sometimes etc. I'm not an options market maker and I promise you nobody has paid more of this theoretical "rake" to these hoe ass mm's than I have. I would not be surprised if I've paid over $1m in spreads YTD. But I've also made 8 figure PNL by trading against these hoe ass mm. For some of you as well, no offense, but it's kinda a skill issue. If you slam some 0DTE options and then want to sell out of them an hour later rather than hedge via perps, you're probably just doing it wrong. Spreads should factor much more into your trade decision making process in crypto options than in TradFi options, which are orders of magnitude more liquid. This isn't to say that spreads can't or shouldn't improve, and it's actually part of my bull case for @DeriveXYZ. The dream scenario for a hoe ass mm is what's called "two way flow". This means they have a buyer for these calls and a seller, and they can instantly pair them up, not need to pay for hedging, and just capture that bid ask spread. But if I'm not a pussy ass mm and I actually just want those naked calls, and there's a 🏳️‍🌈🐻 somewhere out there who also just wants to sell those calls, we can meet in the middle at mark and both be happy that we're executing at the theoretical fair value, while cutting out the hoe ass mm. This will make RFQ pricing much closer to order book pricing, and we'll eventually have tons of people willing to take both sides of the bet peer to peer. Hoe ass mm's aren't evil, and if they are, they are a necessary evil for now. What @DeriveXYZ is building will eventually allow for thousands of market participants to participate in better price discovery and give lower spreads than Deribit ever could. That said, bad spreads are bad for business for everyone. If options aren't being traded because hoe ass mm's are getting greedy, it's bad for the trader, the exchange, and the greedy hoe ass mm. People are right to point out that big spreads are bad, but you also need to contextualize them. Are they bad relative to the rest of the industry? Very likely not. Derive very frequently has some of the best pricing available (trust me, I check). Might they be too bad to take that trade though? Sure, all the time. It's a quirk of options, especially on alts, that sometimes you'll see a great trade in theory, and when you go ask for a quote, the hoe ass mm is charging bad spreads because they also think it's a good trade and don't want to sell it to you. Same concept as why plumbers get to charge you $10k to fix your overflowing toliet at 2am; they'll give you a price, it just won't be a good one. TLDR: Thank you for coming to my TED talk, hoe ass mm's charging wide spreads is bad but part of the game, the only way to improve is by building exactly what @DeriveXYZ is building, options volume overall should dramatically increase as spreads tighten, and spreads will tighten as volume/demand increases.
Replying to @koolkrypto223
there’s no point in defending having to donate 20% to a hoe ass mm brother
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What they do to dogs in China is awful, please consider donating fintwit/xtwit
We are deeply grateful to Wangwang_sol for their incredible $40,000 donation, received through Donate.gg. This generous contribution will help support survivors of the Harbin slaughterhouse and provide much-needed care, protection, and assistance to animals affected by cruelty. To everyone in the Justice for Wang Wang community who helped make this possible: thank you. Your compassion and solidarity are making a real difference. We are honoured to have your support and stand together for a future where animals are treated with dignity, compassion, and kindness. ❤️🐾 Thank you, Wangwang_sol, for standing with the survivors. @WangWang_Sol @donatedotgg #JusticeForWangWang #AnimalRescue #AnimalProtection #Harbin #Donate #CryptoForGood
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
Replying to @0xStones27
non fiction : Freedom of Money (CZ) The Art of Intelligence (Crumpton) The Casualties of Credit The System of Objects Spiritual Enlightenment (mckenna) I See Satan Fall Like Lightning Secrets of Sandhill Road Unholy Alliance (the history of Nazi involvement w the Occult) fiction elric of melnibone series Neuromancer The Diamond Age Hell's Angel's (Thompson) Candide Thus Spoke Zarathustra
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
The market is like 5D chess on steroids. It's an infinite game of flattening inventory and flushing out the weak hands before repeating the process in the opposite direction. In the example below, we can see large players trapping short-term longs and flushing them out until the market tests prior day VAL. Then when the weak hands are flushed out and large players are ready to let it run again they pull offers and let it rip. Try to always be aware of which short-term traders are currently trapped and getting ran over. I always aim to trade against the trapped side and I recommend that you do as well unless you are doing longer holds for multiple days/weeks.
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
Interest rates are 0, no dividends, stock is at $100. Assume 1 year to expiration. What is the maximum fair-value of the $100-strike straddle? If the straddle trades at its max value, what is the straddle’s delta?
22%$100, delta = 0
16%$200, delta = 0
29%$100, delta = 1
32%$200, delta = 1
987 votes • Final results
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Replying to @flb_xyz
Good take, but I'd even say go one simpler and do simple basis trades first You learn a lot from harvesting basis and rebalancing on some small shitter
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Baseball Bobby retweeted
The best intro to market making you can do is learning delta neutral funding rate arbitrage It's possible to do manually and you can use screeners like loris.tools So many 100%+ APY opportunities there and also much easier with small capital as you won't heavily flip rates on low OI markets
Funding rate opportunities are endless Give it 6 months and we'll see @Cbb0fe post about how him and his brother made $10M from funding rate arbitrage by asking AI how to do it I'm sure a lot of trading firms are milking this shit, it's not too late to learn how to build personal trading systems yourself Bookmark this market making lesson from the QFEX founder @annanay
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