Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928) profile picture

Benjamin

@Benjamin1524928

Traded discretionary for about 15 years and worked as a Data Scientist for 8 years before I decided to fully automate and go full time

Joined May 2025
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Photo by Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928)Photo by Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928)Photo by Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928)Photo by Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928)Photo by Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928)Photo by Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928)Photo by Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928)
Weeks like these show why backtests + Monte Carlo permutation tests are a horrible way to estimate risk and decide on sizing. Mean reversion systems look fantastic in these tests and yet in reality in weeks like these you could easily buy all the worst stocks at once
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We got very lucky yesterday with the bounce and in fact I assume most mr systems performed very well now (mine did). But we could easily have dropped another 10%+ in all the AI related stocks that almost every mean reversion system bought
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It’s kinda crazy how complex trading is. I have easily 20k hours of experience and work 80 hour weeks and I still feel like I don’t know anything about most things trading related and everything I do is suboptimal. And with every year that passes I still improve significantly
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World class fundamental analyst make fun of quantitative trading, quants make fun of fundamental analysis, Jane street traders seem convinced you can’t make money as retail without institutional infrastructure etc etc .. basically we all don’t know shit for the most part
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My highest respect goes to guys like buffet who are clearly world class at what they do and who still admit that they have no idea how any other trading / investment approaches even work
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Even worse. The author then goes on to admit that he has no explanation for why this combination of 3 conditions works but seems convinced that it’s an amazing strategy because it worked over a 180 trade backtest .. don’t do shit like this if your goal is to make money
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Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928) profile pictureBenjamin@Benjamin1524928Aug 13
It’s kinda funny how easy it is to find an explanation for why an edge is supposedly real. I see so many strategies that use 5 filters to generate a 100 trade backtest and every time they have a great explanation for why these specific filters are definitely not data mining 😂
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There’s obviously always a chance that a combination of 3 bad predictors makes for a good predictor .. but not when you have a sample size of 180 trades and no idea why that even might be the case .. absolutely not how any of this works
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It’s kinda funny how easy it is to find an explanation for why an edge is supposedly real. I see so many strategies that use 5 filters to generate a 100 trade backtest and every time they have a great explanation for why these specific filters are definitely not data mining 😂
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Btw: when people say don’t trade it’s not because trading itself is impossible. Beginners could try something like slow tf and have a reasonable shot at it. It’s just that most choose to instead day trade which is like 1000x harder because it can theoretically make more money
Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928) profile pictureBenjamin@Benjamin1524928Aug 7
IMO it’s quite useful to realize that 1. Different trading styles come with different return potential. 2. Difficulty doesn’t scale linearly with return potential. For example trading styles capable of making 50% yearly are probably 1000x as hard as those capable of making 20%
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And these numbers aren’t even exaggerated btw .. I’d bet that at least 10% of people are capable of reading a few trend following books and successfully implementing a system and profiting from it. But successful day trading over many years? That’s like a 1:10.000 chance easily
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IMO it’s quite useful to realize that 1. Different trading styles come with different return potential. 2. Difficulty doesn’t scale linearly with return potential. For example trading styles capable of making 50% yearly are probably 1000x as hard as those capable of making 20%
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Probably smarter to take a reasonable shot at making 20% your first year than to most likely lose money trying to make 50%+ but I didn’t want to hear that as a beginner and so does nobody else .. I guess overconfidence hurts most of us until we finally get it
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All those people who are currently having a meltdown need to learn about sizing properly. The last few months soxx went up on average 25% monthly so now having a -23% month is the minimum of what would be expected in a normal correction. This isn’t even a crash
BuccoCapital Bloke (@buccocapital) profile pictureBuccoCapital Bloke
@buccocapitalJul 28
SOXX still up more than the index over the last three months and up 100% over the year Just an absolutely pathetic meltdown happening from the bottleneck bros/AI trade community on Twitter right now No crying in the casino
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My momentum sleeve is currently holding some of these stocks as well and obviously a down month like this isn’t great. But that’s why you size these things small. You can’t buy stocks that go up 25% monthly and then expect that a down month would only be -2%
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One thing I find quite interesting is that even multi year track records don’t show the full sorry. You could easily take some tail risk to generate an excess 5%+ per year without additional dd over 20 years and then suddenly blow up in a single day because of that risk
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People really need to understand that trading takes time. I went from losing money consistently to being break even to matching market returns to slightly outperforming the market to now making about 100% annually .. over 15 years. Stay in the game and slowly improve
Benjamin (@Benjamin1524928) profile pictureBenjamin@Benjamin1524928Jul 9
Replying to @StefanMegerle
Too much😂 but most importantly don’t be greedy. People who just try to slightly outperform the market very often succeed and get better over time. They rarely lose serious money. The ones blowing up are always the ones trying to get rich quick. Start with 15% ror instead of -100
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It’s obviously the same as every other job .. you study for years, then start as a junior, over the years get promoted to senior and maybe even manager levels and only after 10+ years are truly good at what you do. Trading isn’t any different but many people don’t understand that
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I always hate it when friends get into trading. I have one friend who paid for a course on how to draw trend lines and another one who does fundamental analysis on Reddit and both do super poorly. And despite knowing I trade full time and do well they ignore all advice. Pains me
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I don’t mind that they think they know better than me but watching them burn their money that they worked really hard for over the years just sucks. Because it’s so obvious to me that it will happen and they really don’t want to hear it
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