Founder & CEO, ITC | Macro, commodities & digital assets | Liquidity, labor & risk cycles | PhD Engineering| Former NASA, Sandia National Labs
Joined January 2018
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So Fed does not raise rates in October.
Long end bounces into midterms
Long end drops before December FOMC
Fed raises in December.
Exactly what happened in 2018
What is crazy is if Bitcoin accepts below the range, it would likely completely unwind in 2-3 weeks, and then the cycle as measured from low-to-low would be nearly identical to the last 2 cycles.
Translation: Market conditions are not great right now, so let's delay our IPO to extract as much out of retail as possible later on. But let's blame it on safety concerns.
ANTHROPIC FACES CALL TO DELAY MASSIVE IPO OVER AI SAFETY CONCERNS
Anthropic has opened discussions with NYC Comptroller Mark Levine after he urged the company to postpone its planned IPO until it addresses AI safety and governance risks.
Levine oversees public pension funds holding more than $325 billion in assets and warned that a major AI safety incident after listing could severely damage investors.
Anthropic is reportedly targeting an IPO as early as November, following quarterly revenue of $16.8 billion.
The key takeaway: AI safety concerns are emerging as a potential obstacle to one of the largest IPOs in history.
Benjamin Cowen retweeted
Ben just STFU. Did you comment similarly when Biden was in office for 4 years? Of course you didn’t. You’re a two faced YouTuber with serious TDS
Does anyone actually believe that sending everyone a $5k check will make them wealthier in the long run?
Sure, it might help temporarily. But what happens to purchasing power when the government keeps spending money it doesn't have?
And who ultimately pays for those checks?
At what point does the market stop caring about what he says
"You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides say they have not agreed to that..."
@POTUS: "They agreed. You know why? Because I said, 'You agree' — that's why. They agreed because I said they agreed, and that thing has to get settled."
Bitcoin closed the week above $83k, so bulls remain in control and the burden of proof remains on the bears.
In my experience, DCAing in the 2nd half of midterm years is the correct approach. It worked in 2018/2022, hopefully it works in 2026.
I think "acceptance" more so refers to multiple weekly closes. Daily closes below $83k are not really a sign yet the the bears are taking control. Arguably, the burden of proof is still on the bears and not the bulls.
If my critics held themselves to the same standards they hold me, they would have had to fire themselves long ago
I dream of a world where people don’t hate others just for having an opinion about markets that differs from theirs
I think in a few years we will look back at this moment and realize how high a real return of 3% truly was
Yields are likely in the topping process.
In prior midterm years, Gold tends to bottom around the time that yields top, while Bitcoin tends to bottom around the time that yields bottom.