All about $BTC $MSTR! The Future is ₿right! Not financial advice. Follow my libertarian page @libertariansdp
Joined November 2024
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In 2028-29, people will be LIVID at themselves for not stacking hard in the low $60’s / $50’s.
It will seem so o₿vious.
$BTC
Learning physics would make Bears way more Bullish & the Bulls slightly less Bullish.
$BTC
With the PLB at $65k, 91% is more conservative than most people would guess. $BTC
When you zoom out, the Power Law Bottom (blue) & the 200w SMA (yellow) tell you everything you need to know about $BTC.
I have made a 3rd interesting $BTC Discovery:
When the 200w SMA (yellow) is above the Power Law (blue) for multiple years AND gets a big break below it (end of 2022) … That is a good set-up for a lower next Top (2025) than people are expecting.
The first 2:
1. The 200w falling below the PLB led to super Bullish price action (2015-17)
2. The 200w crossing back above almost exactly marked the 2017 Top
The most interesting question in $BTC is when will the 200w SMA cross below the Power Law?
We haven’t seen it below for the last ~9 years.
It is now just $1,910 above & they are converging closer together every day. 👌
The 2 years (2015-17) it was below led to INCREDIBLE Growth… These next chunk of months could move painfully sideways, but stay patient... Because that could be the set-up needed for a 2ish year MEGA ₿ULL! 🚀
Imo it makes sense to be 90-95% in on $BTC here.
If this is like last cycle this could chop very sideways before the next Levitation up. It is insanely risky to be on the sidelines here.
But we could also very easily come back to the 200w SMA (currently $67k) in the upper $60’s or low $70’s before the next Levitation up… If we’re lucky enough to go back there that’s where I’ll dribble in the last bit I have.
2015-17 was the only time in $BTC’s history where the 200w SMA (yellow) was below the Power Law Bottom (blue).
It led to INSANE price growth (~84x) AND once it crossed back above it almost EXACTLY marked the Top (vertical black).
Why do I bring this up? The 200w is now just $2k above the PLB & it’s looking like it’s setting up to cross below early next year.
I know it would be frustrating to chop sideways-ish for the next chunk of months, but imo that would lead to a very Bullish setup where we see history rhyme & make everyone’s ~$220k Base case look Bearish af LOL.
$BTC ~84x’d over the 2 year period (2015-17) that the 200w SMA (yellow) was below the Power Law Bottom (blue).
That was the only time in Bitcoin’s history that occurred.
We are now only ~$2k away from that potentially happening again. 👀
NO ONE IS BULLISH ENOUGH. 🚀
The 200w SMA (yellow) has only been below the Power Law once in $BTC’s history.
What happened? Super Bullish price action. 🚀
We are currently close to it crossing below again. 👀
It’s also interesting to note that when the 200w SMA crossed back above the Power Law is when we Peaked… Perhaps we see something similar in 2028-29.
$BTC is a great buy right now with pretty limited downside.
If we are able to come back to the 200w SMA (yellow) in the upper $60’s or low $70’s, it’ll become an AMAZING ₿uy.
Not sure if we’ll get that lucky though. We could very easily chop sideways & Levitate up here too.
The most interesting question for $BTC right now is will we get a 2nd run in with the 200w SMA or no?
We did the last 2 Bear markets… But that also came after way more parabolic Bulls.
Will history repeat & we see Bitcoin hit the 200w SMA in the upper 60’s or $70’s before we kick off the Bull?… Or since this is a shallow Bear will we only see 1 run in with the 200w SMA this time? 🤔
