BobtheBuildooor

Any ETH bulls here? ETH sentiment turns super-bearish for the fourth time this year. Realization kicked in that "Ultrasound money" narrative is dead, as ETH revenue and burning are down. Activity on the L1 needs to increase, but instead, it's being outsourced to L2s without clear benefits to ETH in the community's eyes. @dcinvestor wants to move back to ETH as programmable money - the only narrative that matters. It's based on ETH as pristine collateral to which revenue and burn metrics don't matter that much. @ChainLinkGod counters that stablecoins have proven to be a more effective and widely adopted version of programmable money than ETH. The 'digital oil' narrative, too, for ETH is weakening as more Layer 2 solutions use their native tokens for gas. Even builders are concerned. @0xdoug, founder of @ambient_finance, humorously but accurately compares Ethereum's rollup-centric plan to a pilot mid-flight discovering the runway is too short but insisting it'll be fine—despite all evidence to the contrary. Oh, and the pilot is drunk. ------ All is lost? @llamaonthebrink thinks valuing ETH needs social awareness, understanding the industry's mission, appreciating network effects, skepticism of fiat money, and belief in innovative internet-native societies. ETH is unlike anything seen before, making it hard to fit into traditional narratives like "digital oil" or "tech equity." ETH's value lies in its potential to build an internet-native, sovereign economy without intermediaries or legacy systems. It requires visionary thinking, understanding network effects, and recognizing possibilities not yet realized. ETH will define its own future, beyond what current frameworks can predict. One could argue it's too hard for boomers and institutions to digest. ---- One of the visionary examples are offered by @mikeneuder His bullish case rest on Ethereum offering a decentralized, self-custodied, permissionless system, allowing global transmission of value that can't be seized or censored. This is the core of its long-term value proposition. Decentralization isn’t just a nice-to-have, it’s critical. In a world where governments and corporations can coerce centralized systems, Ethereum's neutral, censorship-resistant design makes it a unique digital property rights system. BTC is censorship-resistant, but as block rewards shrink, Bitcoin will rely on transaction fees for miner incentives, which may not ensure long-term security. This is what notable Ethereum Foundation researchers like @drakefjustin has mentioned in the past. Plus, unlike Ethereum’s scalable rollup roadmap, Bitcoin’s static development makes it harder to adapt. In the short term, @adamscochran argues that Based Rollups, compared to the current L2 design, can directly impact the monetization of ETH by fundamentally changing incentive structures. This shift could potentially increase long-term demand for ETH by 100x ----- After the PoS transition and ETH burn switch, ETH felt like it had everything going great for it. But Ethereum's narrative is currently in limbo as ETH price struggles to pick up. Personally, it's been fascinating to see community discussions to redefine the narrative. I connect with the explanation by @llamaonthebrink that ETH requires more social awareness and deep understanding of our industry's mission to appreciate what Ethereum has to offer. But industry as a whole often drifts away from the mission when greed and speculation blinds our minds. Only for it to come back when times get harder. We also see more active discussions among the Ethereum Foundation, L2 builders, and even Vitalik is engaging more with the community. It's a clear sign of a growing urgency to get back on track. But as @0xdoug asks, “Are you sure the runway is long enough for this jet?” I remain bullish (bag bias, if you will).

1/ Is BTC a risk-on or risk-off asset? Blackrock hears this question more than any other. Their latest research shows Bitcoin is indeed risky but not a "risk-on" asset. Here's the breakdown: 🧵

A brutal wake-up call for anyone who went bullish on alts after BTC's new ATH in March. I, too, was too bullish, expecting the usual shift from BTC to ETH, followed by a pump in alts. Didn't play out. ETH lagged, and most alts had short rallies only to crash hard. My degen playbook was rather conservative, with a focus on staking L1 tokens as 'productive assets' - you can stake and use them to farm their ecosystem airdrop tokens. The strategy was to sell airdrops back to L1 tokens which should've driven up L1 coin prices (like USD printing boost major stock prices). I believed $ETH would outperform due to its status as the most productive asset in crypto, particularly because of high-yield airdrops via restaking. Indeed, millions of dollars were issued in airdrop tokens like ETHFI and REZ, with EIGEN and other LRT governance tokens set to launch soon. Despite these high-yield opportunities, ETH failed to generate FOMO. Everyone was likely already overexposed, having loaded up on ETH and BTC during the bear market. Still, everyone who actively farmed with ETH are probably doing much better than the ETH spot would indicate. And more $$ is coming with $EIGEN unlock. No big regrets here. ------- $SOL eco performed well initially with $JTO and $JUP. Their successes did boost $SOL price as FOMO kicked in. Then the $W airdrop did okay, but each subsequent airdrop saw a sharp decline in rewards ($TNSR, $PRCL, $DRIFT) with $CLOUD being the most disappointing (relative to expectations). Right now, Solana is a memecoin playground, but innovative DePin and DeFi protocols are waiting for their moment when memecoin fever dies down. -------- Bitcoin's ecosystem, boosted by BRC20s and NFTs, initially did well— we got multiple airdrops just by holding 'blue-chip' NFTs. But then Runes launched, and everything nosedived. I believe Runes will bounce back once the infrastructure, especially DEXes gets improved. --------- Other L1/L2 ecosystems fared much worse. • Injective dApps lacked quality, and the airdrops were negligible. • Starknet's $STRK airdrop flopped, failing to spark a "wealth effect" in the ecosystem. Despite high DeFi Spring rewards, protocol airdrops were a letdown. • SEI did well with NFTs initially, but DeFi dApps and airdrops felt short. • SUI's ecosystem has high-quality dApps but they aren't generous with airdrops and SUI's unlocks weigh heavily on price. • The Cosmos ecosystem is bogged down by infighting, airdrops have dried up, and they must bounce back from recent exploits. • Arweave's community expected higher allocation of $AO for $AR holding but got just 36% -------- What's next? • Stacks postponed the Nakamoto upgrade to late August, and hopefully multiple airdrops and faster block times will create some FOMO. • Still waiting for $EIGEN trading launch with 2nd airdrop and Swell, Kelp, Puffer token launches. • Multiple Eigenlayer AVSs are building and gearing for token launches (hopefully with generous airdrops to restakers). • Symbiotic and Karak are challenging Eigenlayer and might try to front-run EIGEN launch if market conditions improve. • Fantom migration to Sonic will test if "rebranding" with a new ticker can bring excitement to the "old" token • Will DeFi OG tokens bounce back when/if memecoin mania fades and degens tire of low-float, high-FDV tokens? ------- Ultimately, these internal catalysts depend on favorable macro conditions and ETF flows—our casinos just aren't enticing enough to attract a new wave of retail degens. But in case the market rebounds, the DeFi degen's playbook will need to be reevaluated with the focus on the most innovative ecosystems that continue to build and reward users generously. Which ecosystems are you betting on?

Crypto Twitter: How to Grow and Monetize Your Audience • My journey from 300 to 100k followers • Tips to growing your audience • Strategies for audience growth • Monetization models & pricing • How to do a sale pitch on X Read it here: ignasdefi.com/p/crypto-twitt…