I bet on Prediction Markets. Professional Luckmaxxer since 09'

Joined December 2024
Breaking news for the unexpired. If you are a young sharp with motion, deposit all you'll need while you still can!
Prediction Market News @Kalshi limits monthly deposits to $2500 for all traders under 21. News comes one day after Kalshi and Polymarket land "preferred" PM status with the NBA. The NBA has long lobbied for PMs to not allow those under 21 to trade. Under federal law, those 18+ can trade on prediction platforms
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Cool kalshi site linked below showing what every state is interested in betting. Some interesting findings: 37 states have Texas Senate in their top 5. Alabama with zero Alabama races. Their number one? Ilhan Omar's MN-05 race in Minnesota
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Leftists be like: “They're using the guy beheading your brother in the street to distract you from your real enemy: Jeff Bezos delivering medicine to your front door overnight.”
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1,490
43
20,344
298,350
After reviewing the Cenk Harem Expose I'm realizing I was bailed out bigtime on this bet. The closet was far larger than anticipated.
I bet $10,000 that Trump wouldn't say Gay or Homosexual during his Tribute to the Late Great Lindsey Graham. Lindsey was likely a closeted homosexual during his lifetime, but it felt like the wrong time and place to bring that up. Expected profit +$290
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897
This market that was put up for institutional hedging a few months ago just resolved. JFK did have slightly more cancelled flights than a typical tuesday but not enough to resolve it Y. Still a W hedge
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13,548
Kalshi app says they are paying 7% APY for cash held in your perpetual account while their website says you will only get 3.5%. Which is it?
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5,753
I had the right scent
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1,945
Bonnet retweeted
Replying to @MDBitcoin
Since when did “store of value” mean exponential returns? You are conflating your hopes of big titty bitches with economic theory.
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889
Bonnet retweeted
Palestinism is such a depraved ideology that you can parade dead Jewish teens in the back of a pickup truck in broad daylight and have men and women, young and old, run after it in ecstasy.
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6,845
1,073
23,374
4,323,266
Bonnet retweeted
MUSLIM PILOT INJURED AFTER ISRAELI PASSENGERS STORM COCKPIT
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1,835
43,278
I won’t tell anyone when I make it, but there will be signs.
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33,294
3,419
284,688
19,980,062
I bet $10,000 that Trump wouldn't say Gay or Homosexual during his Tribute to the Late Great Lindsey Graham. Lindsey was likely a closeted homosexual during his lifetime, but it felt like the wrong time and place to bring that up. Expected profit +$290
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46,139
Insane cheeseburger arbitrage opportunities available at Barcelona airport rn
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28,962
2,572,868
Update: Polymarket has resolved this to yes in accordance with what we thought was the truth. W Polymarket. I will be treating my family to a nice dinner!
Big argument going down on Polymarket about if Ronaldo cried. I think he did. People arguing for no claim this is likely just sweat and so it shouldnt resolve yes for crying. I stand to make over $5,000 if this resolves yes. polymarket.com/event/will-ro…
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6,924
Did Ronaldo cry at the World Cup? According to Polymarket traders, he didn't cry and the current odds are at 15% that he did. The argument comes down to this rule: "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Cristiano Ronaldo visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed." But the photos below, and many others from Getty taken by professional photographers, appear to show tears. His eyes are clearly red from tearing up, and in Fox footage you can even see him moments later wiping his eyes. Based on the spirit of a market, which is titled as "Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?", this looks like a clear YES. All the arguments about this is being sweat and not tears, they feel really scammy because no matter how he cried, you could have this argument, which makes the market pointless. If Polymarket clarifies this one, I think it can easily go to YES. If it goes to UMA voting, it will probably go to NO since a few big traders with influence in UMA are on the NO side. Personally, I have $1,500 on YES to win $11,000, because I think those pictures should be enough for the market to resolve.
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Big argument going down on Polymarket about if Ronaldo cried. I think he did. People arguing for no claim this is likely just sweat and so it shouldnt resolve yes for crying. I stand to make over $5,000 if this resolves yes. polymarket.com/event/will-ro…
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here are many other sources claiming he cried but market can't resolve off Getty, NYT and BBC etc. but makes it more likely that he was crying imo
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Here are some more angles showing that Ronaldo cried after the Match
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