Financial professional focusing on Macro Markets, Housing, Metals & Miner analysis, market trends, price levels, momentum, sentiment and daily COMEX activity.

Joined March 2009
With monetary metals under pressure again, history offers a reminder of what happened after some of their most punishing corrections.
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Good point. I had written to housing articles over the last couple of weeks, but hadn't really gotten into foreclosures, just basically everything else. I'm going to look into where sales have dropped the most and where foreclosures are the highest to see how much crossover there is.
Replying to @BrianGoodner
Foreclosure counts are one signal, but local sales data tells the rest of the story. An appraiser looks at how many distressed sales are in a neighborhood's closed comps and how quickly normal sales are selling. A rising count in a county doesn't automatically change every street.
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The housing market's problems are no longer limited to high prices, expensive mortgages, and weak home sales. New foreclosure data suggests financial pressure is increasingly reaching existing homeowners.
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Denarius Metals is a High-Grade Gold Project with Near-Term Production and Significant Upside — With Some Risks
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Consumer Confidence Remains Near Historic Lows The University of Michigan's final October consumer survey paints a troubling picture. Overall consumer sentiment remained near historic lows at 48.0, barely changed from September's 48.1. But consumers' assessment of current economic conditions fell considerably, from 50.9 to 46.7. Inflation expectations also increased. Consumers now anticipate prices rising 4.7% over the next year, compared with 4.6% in September. Longer-term expectations increased from 3.4% to 3.5%. These are consumer expectations, not forecasts of actual inflation. Nevertheless, they reveal persistent concerns about purchasing power and the cost of living. The particularly interesting development is that consumers have become more pessimistic about their current circumstances even as their expectations for the future improved slightly. For the Federal Reserve, elevated inflation expectations present another challenge as policymakers attempt to restore confidence in price stability.
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I think MSA is a solid subscription with great unique momentum analysis, but I know he's taken a lot of heat for his bold calls in youtube interviews (though he never made those in his reports). He also did say there would be a "jiggle in the middle" of this move and to be careful about selling because you won't know when to buy back and could miss the reboun. However, had I known this "jiggle" would last this long or be this deep, I would have sold out of my paper positions (not the miners) and just bought back at some point, when I felt his was rebounding. It appears the X account is being shut down after death threats.
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I think Bunker Hill is an interesting company to look at right now for two reasons. They just started production like June 29th, so their first earnings report will be Q3, which may not be great, but better than no earnings report, but think about Q4 and 2027 quarters if you expect metals prices to rise. Also, the stock suffered a bit with the Silver 47 purchase as they integrate, but in the long run, it's huge with that huge pipeline of projects. This one has two major catalysts and I view as a bargain....though of course this isn't investment advice.
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In my opinion, this is one of the best Gold Juniors to own, with two advanced Canadian Gold projects With a potential path to production by 2028.
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Minaurum Silver (MMRGF) announces discovery of a previously unrecognized high-grade vein at its Alamos Silver Project in Mexico. The new Africa vein returned 2.05 metres grading 669 g/t AgEq, including 270 g/t actual silver. Additional drilling continues expanding mineralization beyond the existing resource. minaurum.com/news/2026/minau…
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Something unusual happened in financial markets Thursday. The Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, semiconductor stocks fell nearly 7%, and oil surged 4%. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield experienced its biggest one-day decline since March 2023, falling below 5%. Investors were buying government bonds even as rising oil prices threatened additional inflation. That suggests concerns about financial-market risk temporarily outweighed inflation fears. The question now is whether this represents a brief flight to safety or the beginning of a more significant reassessment of risk.
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The muted response of the dollar was arguably the most important thing today. So much for the idea that every selloff sends investors rushing into the US dollar because liquidity becomes king. Treasuries aside, the dollar would normally have caught a strong bid during a selloff like this. Instead, against several currencies, it went the other way. Yes... it’s only one day…. but it deserves attention. tavicosta.substack.com/p/mac…
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Furthermore to this, I just noticed Nick Gerli was on Adam Taggart and talked about how even though national price averages overall haven't gone down because there is a shortage in some places like the northeast, certain regions have been hit hard. Here is a listing of the hardest hit cities so far.
There are more homes for sale, fewer buyers willing or able to purchase them, and mortgage rates are back above 7%. Meanwhile, researchers visiting neighborhoods firsthand are questioning how much housing supply is visible in the official numbers.
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No, but there are unusually large positions in those tech companies, and most that own the don't own much else. I don't think that was all of it, and I think it was more bank manipulation than anything, but I do think down here banks will start covering more of their short positions and it should rebound soon. But if tech starts to struggle, and the stock market in general, and bonds don't look good, people will eventually go to the monetary metals, like they have in other periods. The allocations to metals and miners overall and in ETFs is still unusually low.
Replying to @BrianGoodner
Brian, anything defensive and interest rate sensitive (which Gold once was considered both) RIPPED HIGHER today while Gold puked and miners imploded? Can they only cover tech margins with PM's? Would love your thoughts. Thanks 😊
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Lahontan is trading at a substantial discount right now. It hasn't been this cheap since early February and is nearly 50% off it's high. Great CEO too who is managing a Nevada Gold Mine Restart With a Growing Resource
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I think a bit part of the reason the metals got hit so hard is because tech got hit hard and people got margin calls and had to liquidate positoins. A 2.6% drop in the Nasdaq is huge for a broad index like that. Eventually, if it continues, capital will rotate to safer options.
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He probably keeps asking Bessent if we can just file bankruptcy. "I swear it works. I've done it many times!"
trump is the self declared "king of debt". @republicans
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Wow, that's crazy, I wonder why. I wouldn't have guessed that. Maybe I should move there and start putting in low offers, but I expect the same in Austin where I currently am.
Replying to @BrianGoodner
Nashville is the poster child. Redfin estimated 18,068 sellers vs 7,161 buyers here in September, 152% more sellers than buyers. Only Miami had a wider gap.
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I'm pretty sure this is what @DonDurrett is waiting for for the metals and miners to really take off.
I guess it depends on what you mean by first. I think there may be one more rate hike, but at some point, I think the market tips over and they start cutting, perhaps rapidly while also providing liquidity, because margin debt is at record levels so if the stock market starts to unwind it will be a cascading event as sells continue to get triggered...the boomers will take all their money out of their 401ks, etc. Then, massive liquidity injections, rate cuts, and that is when gold and silver take off, along with the miners. ETF allocations to metals and miners are at fractions of what they were in 2008...and miners relative to gold are at about a third of what they were at any time prior to 2013.
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IAMGOLD (IAG) reports Q3 Côté Gold production of 92,000 ounces, including 64,400 attributable ounces. September processing averaged a record 37,100 tonnes daily, exceeding nameplate capacity. However, management now expects annual production toward the lower end of existing guidance. newsfilecorp.com/release/320…
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