AI stocks aside
Something to keep in mind is the stocks where everyone has been hiding are barely starting to participate in the contagion selling
I wouldn’t try to be a hero here
Indices finally breaking down after months of distribution with individual names looking like they’re in the middle of a repeat of the nasty 2022 downtrends
I’m willing to miss the initial 10% - 15% move off the bottom if that means I’m paying for clarity and confirmation of easy mode
These ai names can easily drop another 50% here as their pricing power is nuked to smithereens along with dilution that exceeds their peak market cap
Wait for their P/E’s to inflate (when you should be buying cyclical stocks)
Sit tight and let the dust clear or risk getting stuck in a stock with a lot of supply overhead trying to make back losses
Good luck 🍀
I wouldn’t try to be a hero here
Indices finally breaking down after months of distribution with individual names looking like they’re in the middle of a repeat of the nasty 2022 downtrends
I’m willing to miss the initial 10% - 15% move off the bottom if that means I’m paying for clarity and confirmation of easy mode
These ai names can easily drop another 50% here as their pricing power is nuked to smithereens along with dilution that exceeds their peak market cap
Wait for their P/E’s to inflate (when you should be buying cyclical stocks)
Sit tight and let the dust clear or risk getting stuck in a stock with a lot of supply overhead trying to make back losses
Good luck 🍀
$SPY
Change of character here rejecting off the 9 week for the first time since March
For those complaining (including myself) that there are no quality setups in this market this is a much needed reset to get those to present themselves
These AI stocks are starting to look a lot like altcoins
What kills altcoins in a crypto bear market?
Relentless dilution hitting a market with no buying pressure
Now ask yourself
What happens to AI stocks when the dilution continues, but investor demand disappears?
Seems like everyone that was hiding in SaaS for the past few months is about to get taken to the woodshed
This market is really really hard
- AI infra bouncing into declining MA's on HTF
- SaaS overextended with little to no pullbacks on elevated valuations
- MAGS dumping fresh shares on our headtops by the billions
- Defense can't be trusted
Absolute nightmare for momo swing traders
If you haven't noticed by now the way to overperformance over a long stretch of time is to let the market come to you
You will be given a stretch of a 2-3 month period where you make your entire year, don't get knocked out of the game trying to fight over crumbs
It was looking rough for a week ngl
After riding cyber for so long, I finally sold out today
Could go up more but I’m done whistling past the graveyard on this macro backdrop
- AI/Semi weakness will drag the market down
- Yields
- Oil/War
- WW2 for individual stocks while indices stay propped up
Will exercise patience for easy mode again
Huge outperformance month for me when it has been doom for the rest of the market
Still holding $META from 540’s & $ZETA from $22
After riding cyber for so long, I finally sold out today
Could go up more but I’m done whistling past the graveyard on this macro backdrop
- AI/Semi weakness will drag the market down
- Yields
- Oil/War
- WW2 for individual stocks while indices stay propped up
Will exercise patience for easy mode again
Huge outperformance month for me when it has been doom for the rest of the market
Still holding $META from 540’s & $ZETA from $22
Valuation actually matters type of market
It’s paying to be boring but I enjoy the low beta in this environment
It's over
Memory, photonics, and neoclouds already ran.
THE NEXT $1T AI BOTTLENECK IS CYBERSECURITY.
Humanity just opened Pandora's box.
What we let out is unlike any threat we've ever seen. And these 10 stocks might be our only hope.
1) $CRWD
The control plane every AI agent has to pass through. Record $1.47 billion quarter, up 26%. Net new ARR hit $333 million, up 51%. George Kurtz just said AIDR can be bigger than EDR because each person will run ~90 agents. The market still prices CrowdStrike like an endpoint vendor. Kurtz is describing the security layer for the agent era.
bryan retweeted
BREAKING: OPENAI, ANTHROPIC, GOOGLE, MICROSOFT, AND GROUP OF 100+ TECH COMPANIES WRITE OPEN LETTER TO U.S. GOVERNMENT & AMERICAN BUSINESSES URGING CYBER DEFENSE ACTION - BLOOMBERG
AI companies OpenAI & Anthropic along with Microsoft, Google, and 100+ other tech companies are calling for governments, tech companies & organizations to focus on making cyber defense "an immediate leadership priority" and to fix existing vulnerabilities in their software to prepare for AI-enabled hacks.
The letter says that in the coming months, AI models will be used to carry out increasingly complicated cyber attacks at a higher volume.
"Today’s AI advances are already giving defenders new ways to fix weaknesses that have accumulated for years... If we act decisively, we can use the defenders’ window to make our digital world much more secure."
