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Joined November 2025
Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly "I think this is all nonsense." [ You think it's all nonsense? ] "All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want." [ Wow. ] "That's what I think is going on." "Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
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Sundar Pichai says Google is putting TPUs in orbit partly because Earth wouldn't look nice covered in the data centers AI will need "And so I don't think Earth would look nice if that's how you plan to do it."
Elon Musk says a Tesla SpaceX merger would be a good idea, it needs 50% of all Tesla shares, and he isn't allowed in the negotiations "I mean, this is definitely a kind of question where I feel like I'm tap dancing through a minefield." "I can't actually be in the discussions of the special committees. So it's sort of an odd kabuki dance where two groups of people are talking and I can't be in the conversation." "I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty, and I think that would be overstating it. Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes." "...particularly on the Tesla side, we will need a 50% vote of all shares, not just those who vote, but of all shareholders."
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Sam Altman says he hasn't looked at a line of code in about a year and doesn't think he'll ever write any again "Or if I do, it'll be like, you know, like a Revolutionary War reenactment or whatever kind of thing people do, you know?"
Brad Gerstner says Altimeter has Anthropic at $140 to $150 billion of revenue next year, which at 12 times gets you close to $2 trillion [ Andrew: Do you think this goes at $2 trillion? Do you think it goes at a trillion and a half? ] "I was at the investor day in San Francisco last week. 150 of the leading investors from every mutual fund... hedge fund in America were there." "I would say the sentiment coming out of the room, by my measure, was like a 10 out of 10." "The numbers that we have in the Altimeter forecast for next year, let's call it 140 or $150 billion in GAAP revenue for next year." "But if you apply a 10 times multiple to that, Andrew, you get to 1.5 trillion. If you apply a 12 times multiple, you get closer to two trillion."
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Brad Gerstner says the people who called a GPU glut missed Nvidia going up 18x in three years [ The margins at NVIDIA, 75% last quarter. You look at Micron, you're talking about 86% margins... that siren has been going off since 2023 and we're still here. ] "So the people who have called the glut over the last two years, they've all been wrong, all been wrong. And they've all missed the opportunity, the upside." "Remember NVIDIA over the course of the last three years is up 18x. You missed all of that because you were panicked two and a half years ago that there was going to be a glut." "There's only so fast in terms of production of wafers in this country. It's only so fast that we can bring power on."
Brad Gerstner says Altimeter has Anthropic at $140 to $150 billion of revenue next year, which at 12 times gets you close to $2 trillion [ Andrew: Do you think this goes at $2 trillion? Do you think it goes at a trillion and a half? ] "I was at the investor day in San Francisco last week. 150 of the leading investors from every mutual fund... hedge fund in America were there." "I would say the sentiment coming out of the room, by my measure, was like a 10 out of 10." "The numbers that we have in the Altimeter forecast for next year, let's call it 140 or $150 billion in GAAP revenue for next year." "But if you apply a 10 times multiple to that, Andrew, you get to 1.5 trillion. If you apply a 12 times multiple, you get closer to two trillion."
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Ed Zitron says there's no GPU shortage when the hyperscalers can't install the ones they already bought "When you've got Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, all of these companies with hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs they can't install, how is there scarcity?"
Gene Munster says Elon's ten gigawatt number was preselling $35 to $40 billion of quarterly capex guidance with the street at 19 [ He throws out that ten gigawatt number by the end of next year... It's just ridiculous. ...doesn't that kind of like, I don't know, get under your skin a little bit? ] "Well, I mean, you have to take it with kind of what we know about Elon and just how to kind of adjust for him, so it doesn't get under my skin because I know how to make an adjustment to that number." "And the number was 1.7 at the end of the December or the September quarter, and he's saying ten, which means that, you know, if it's between five and ten, it's still going to be a much bigger number." "What he was basically doing was kind of preselling the guidance that came from Bret Johnsen, the CFO, minutes later, which was to expect 35 to 40 billion in capex in the December quarter, when the street was at 19 billion. Now, surprisingly, the stock went up on that."
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Brad Gerstner says Altimeter has Anthropic at $140 to $150 billion of revenue next year, which at 12 times gets you close to $2 trillion [ Andrew: Do you think this goes at $2 trillion? Do you think it goes at a trillion and a half? ] "I was at the investor day in San Francisco last week. 150 of the leading investors from every mutual fund... hedge fund in America were there." "I would say the sentiment coming out of the room, by my measure, was like a 10 out of 10." "The numbers that we have in the Altimeter forecast for next year, let's call it 140 or $150 billion in GAAP revenue for next year." "But if you apply a 10 times multiple to that, Andrew, you get to 1.5 trillion. If you apply a 12 times multiple, you get closer to two trillion."
Gene Munster says Elon's ten gigawatt number was preselling $35 to $40 billion of quarterly capex guidance with the street at 19 [ He throws out that ten gigawatt number by the end of next year... It's just ridiculous. ...doesn't that kind of like, I don't know, get under your skin a little bit? ] "Well, I mean, you have to take it with kind of what we know about Elon and just how to kind of adjust for him, so it doesn't get under my skin because I know how to make an adjustment to that number." "And the number was 1.7 at the end of the December or the September quarter, and he's saying ten, which means that, you know, if it's between five and ten, it's still going to be a much bigger number." "What he was basically doing was kind of preselling the guidance that came from Bret Johnsen, the CFO, minutes later, which was to expect 35 to 40 billion in capex in the December quarter, when the street was at 19 billion. Now, surprisingly, the stock went up on that."
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Ken Griffin says corporate America is going through its Anthropic and OpenAI bills and working out what it can run on open source at a fraction of the cost "Corporate America has been very uneven in its ability to extract value from AI models." "And the most sophisticated companies in the United States are becoming very sophisticated at what parts of their business do they need to pay extremely high pricing for... from OpenAI and Anthropic, and what part of their business can they run on open source models at a fraction of the cost." "And I think all of corporate America is looking at their bills from Anthropic and OpenAI and going, okay, we need to think about how to make sure we're getting productivity out of this." "But in some areas you've got a lot of waste and people are going to have to pivot around that." [ Dani: The Journal had a report that Anthropic... is talking about seven hundred fifty billion dollars of spending to come... Is there necessary tension in those two things, Ken? ] "There is."
Ken Griffin says GPU pricing goes into freefall once there's overcapacity, the same day Elon Musk said old H100s rent for more than they did new Musk on the SpaceX call "...you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new." Griffin that evening "GPUs, like airlines, have a very low marginal cost to run... the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into freefall. We saw this actually with the telecom buildout back in 2000, right?" [ Is that what we're heading for right now? ] "Well, that's the question mark, which is if we reach a point where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, marginal pricing will actually go into freefall. And that really upends all the investment assumptions that people are working with today."
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Larry Fink says if the US slows down data centers they get built in Canada, which just cut permitting to one year [ Larry, last week, I mean, you were saying that a moratorium on data centers could put the country in a recession. Are we really that dependent? ] "And if we slow down the build out of this technology, I think it really does jeopardize the economy. It means we're not going to build these. It means we're building elsewhere. You have Canada." "...the changes of permitting reform in Canada whereby at the federal level to provincial level, the local level, a one year term for permitting, which is a very fast permitting process by any imagination." "If that happens, okay, we can't build them in the United States. You build them in Canada."
Jason Calacanis says data centers are getting delayed because Anthropic keeps telling the public there's a 10% chance AI kills everybody "No. No. Here's what's happening. The data centers are getting delayed. Why are the data centers being delayed? Because Anthropic keeps saying, 'You're all going to lose your jobs, and there's a 10% chance that the software is going to kill everybody.'" [ Leo: Stop that, Dario. ] "Stop it. Now everybody thinks that smart people believe that there's a 10% chance that 7 billion people are going to die and 100% chance that everybody's losing their jobs... Like my daughters hate AI." [ Leo: Young people hate it. ] "Young people hate AI."
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Gene Munster says Elon's ten gigawatt number was preselling $35 to $40 billion of quarterly capex guidance with the street at 19 [ He throws out that ten gigawatt number by the end of next year... It's just ridiculous. ...doesn't that kind of like, I don't know, get under your skin a little bit? ] "Well, I mean, you have to take it with kind of what we know about Elon and just how to kind of adjust for him, so it doesn't get under my skin because I know how to make an adjustment to that number." "And the number was 1.7 at the end of the December or the September quarter, and he's saying ten, which means that, you know, if it's between five and ten, it's still going to be a much bigger number." "What he was basically doing was kind of preselling the guidance that came from Bret Johnsen, the CFO, minutes later, which was to expect 35 to 40 billion in capex in the December quarter, when the street was at 19 billion. Now, surprisingly, the stock went up on that."
Ken Griffin says GPU pricing goes into freefall once there's overcapacity, the same day Elon Musk said old H100s rent for more than they did new Musk on the SpaceX call "...you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new." Griffin that evening "GPUs, like airlines, have a very low marginal cost to run... the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into freefall. We saw this actually with the telecom buildout back in 2000, right?" [ Is that what we're heading for right now? ] "Well, that's the question mark, which is if we reach a point where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, marginal pricing will actually go into freefall. And that really upends all the investment assumptions that people are working with today."
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Satya Nadella says Microsoft is fine running three to six months behind the AI labs at 20% of the cost "...our cost to do something that's of, let's say, six months off or three months off, even at, you know, 20% of the cost, that's fantastic for our shareholders."
Ken Griffin says GPU pricing goes into freefall once there's overcapacity, the same day Elon Musk said old H100s rent for more than they did new Musk on the SpaceX call "...you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new." Griffin that evening "GPUs, like airlines, have a very low marginal cost to run... the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into freefall. We saw this actually with the telecom buildout back in 2000, right?" [ Is that what we're heading for right now? ] "Well, that's the question mark, which is if we reach a point where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, marginal pricing will actually go into freefall. And that really upends all the investment assumptions that people are working with today."
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Bill Ackman recalls walking into a Bremont store, buying a bunch of watches, then asking who owned the company "I wrote a note to the owners, and then I ended up owning the company."
Jason Calacanis says data centers are getting delayed because Anthropic keeps telling the public there's a 10% chance AI kills everybody "No. No. Here's what's happening. The data centers are getting delayed. Why are the data centers being delayed? Because Anthropic keeps saying, 'You're all going to lose your jobs, and there's a 10% chance that the software is going to kill everybody.'" [ Leo: Stop that, Dario. ] "Stop it. Now everybody thinks that smart people believe that there's a 10% chance that 7 billion people are going to die and 100% chance that everybody's losing their jobs... Like my daughters hate AI." [ Leo: Young people hate it. ] "Young people hate AI."
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