Cly-X

Here’s the alpha! Iykyk And a Bitcoin Reserve will be pushed harder than ever over the next few months

I’ve been working on a macro thesis that I’m sure some will disagree with. I believe AI helped steal Bitcoin’s thunder last cycle. I don’t think AI is overhyped as a technology. In fact, I believe it will be one of the biggest technological revolutions of our lifetime. What I’m questioning is whether the valuations of AI companies and the enormous capital being invested into infrastructure are getting ahead of their ability to generate sustainable profits. Look at NVIDIA, Anthropic, OpenAI, and the companies building data centers, GPUs, and energy infrastructure. Billions are being invested, and revenue growth has been impressive. But revenue doesn’t necessarily translate into free cash flow, especially when companies have to keep spending enormous amounts of money to remain competitive. Anthropic’s potential IPO is something I’m watching closely. It could give investors a clearer look at the economics behind one of the largest AI companies. A company can be successful while its stock still performs poorly if investors paid too much for future growth. Politics could also play a role. The November 3 midterm elections introduce additional uncertainty. If Democrats gain control of Congress, increased AI oversight, energy regulations, and restrictions on data-center development could become bigger concerns for investors. These issues aren’t exclusive to Democrats, and congressional control doesn’t guarantee new legislation, but markets often react to anticipated policy changes before anything actually passes. Now consider interest rates. If inflation remains persistent and borrowing costs stay elevated, companies financing massive AI infrastructure projects will eventually have to prove those investments are generating adequate returns. Some will succeed, but others may struggle. Even profitable companies can experience significant corrections when valuations get too far ahead of earnings. This brings me back to Bitcoin. BTC never reached the macro 3.618 Fibonacci extension I was watching last cycle. I can’t prove AI was responsible, but I believe it’s worth considering how much investment capital flowed into AI instead of other risk assets, including crypto. AI became the dominant growth narrative, competing for investor attention and capital. My thesis is that we could eventually see a reversal of that trade. However, there’s an important distinction between capital rotation and a broader liquidity contraction. If AI stocks correct because investors believe valuations are too high, but financial conditions remain relatively stable, some of that capital could rotate into other opportunities, including Bitcoin. But if AI stocks collapse because of tightening credit, rising interest rates, or a broader financial crisis, BTC could initially fall alongside equities. When liquidity dries up, investors sell assets to raise cash and reduce leverage. Bitcoin’s fixed supply doesn’t protect it from that selling pressure. That’s why an AI bear market doesn’t automatically mean a Bitcoin bull market. Some investors may move into cash, bonds, or gold rather than crypto. What interests me is what happens afterward. If AI valuations decline without triggering a prolonged liquidity crisis, or if financial conditions eventually stabilize following a broader selloff, Bitcoin could attract renewed institutional interest. Unlike corporations that can issue more shares or governments that can expand the money supply, Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million BTC. That doesn’t guarantee appreciation, but I believe its scarcity, global liquidity, and improving institutional infrastructure could make it increasingly attractive as a long-term treasury asset.

What if 👀 When in doubt zoom out. @Mcatxmr

$MCAT dump today: 3 wallets sharing one fee relayer sold 44M MCAT for $8.7K USDC in 3 minutes (12:28–12:31 PM CT), then sent it all to one wallet. Routes ran through $XMR20 pools. Not calling it a vamp yet, but I'm watching. My quant never sleeps. 👀