Providing market-leading, independent macro insight for more than 25 years. Subscribe: https://teapawt.org/t.co/IYwiy2p9K5 Follow our other accounts: https://teapawt.org/t.co/DELlS8DuaX
London, England
Joined May 2015
- Tweets2.4K
- Following41
- Followers8.7K
- Likes152
Capital Economics retweeted
From @CapEconomics:
“Data from the ILO show that manufacturing wage costs are 10 times lower in Mexico, 15 times lower in Vietnam and 20 times lower in India than they are in the US”
Capital Economics retweeted
Two killer charts from @CapEconomics
The first shows the £ has fallen in value against a range of international currencies in recent weeks but only to level it was at when Labour won the election.
The fall precipitated by the “Truss” MiniBudget was on totally different scale…
Capital Economics retweeted
The US #stockMarket could nail a hat trick of more than 20% #gains for a 3rd straight yr in 2025, according to strategists @CapEconomics. If projection proves true, it would be only 2nd time in the stock market's history seeing 20+% gains 3 yrs in a row: markets.businessinsider.com/…
Capital Economics retweeted
Across several developed countries, foreign-born individuals were key to labor force growth from 2019-2023
@CapEconomics
Capital Economics retweeted
WATCH: The possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency has sparked concerns over the impact to the struggling European economy. Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics said a Trump victory is not expected to influence ECB policy
Capital Economics retweeted
"Investors will probably judge that the [French] election has avoided the worst possible outcomes. But things still don’t look good. A fractious parliament means it will be difficult for any government to pass necessary budget cuts": buff.ly/4cU7g9F
Capital Economics retweeted
A 25-basis point cut from the ECB looks like a done deal at Thursday's meeting but, given those May inflation numbers, a July follow-up appears unlikely. Either way, we see rates falling much further this year and next than markets are discounting: buff.ly/3yKEGIV
Capital Economics retweeted
We are thrilled to announce the winners of the 2024 Analyst Forecast Awards for wheat prices! Join us in celebrating the exceptional accuracy demonstrated by this year's top forecasters
🥇 Capital Economics
🥈 Citigroup Global Capital Markets Inc.
🥉 BMO
lnkd.in/d7fKehEz
Capital Economics retweeted
Join us as we applaud the winners of the 2024 Analyst Forecast Awards for corn prices, whose remarkable predictions set the standard for accuracy and reliability in forecasting
🥇 Citigroup Global Capital Markets Inc.
🥈 Capital Economics
🥉 Itaú Unibanco
lnkd.in/d7fKehEz
Capital Economics retweeted
Saudi Arabia's oil revenues for 2023 slumped to $323.28 billion, a 4.3% decline from 2022 due to lower production, with the government running a deficit.
"The backdrop of the current oil prices is not enough to spend what they want" - @JamesSwanston, MENA economist @Capeconomics, citing the recent downsizing of the much-hyped Neom megacity development on the Red Sea.
Big thanks to James for his insight & help with the story 🙏
#OOTT
Capital Economics retweeted
Capital Economics: "Donald Trump’s plans for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China specifically would subtract up to 1.5% from US GDP and trigger a rebound in inflation that could force the Fed to raise interest rates again."
Capital Economics retweeted
“The Chinese economy is still extremely dependent on construction activity,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics. “The reason the economy is still growing at 5% is not because EV exports are booming. That’s just too small.”
wsj.com/world/china/china-go…
Capital Economics retweeted
No, we don't really think CPI rent of shelter inflation is going to fall that far - the BLS will eventually revise up its New Tenant Rent Index data. But even with an upward revision, that's a lot more disinflation coming down the pipe.
Capital Economics retweeted
About that "last mile is the hardest" nonsense. Remember rent of shelter accounts for 43% of the core #CPI basket. So if it does fall from 6.2% in Dec to -1% that would subtract 3.1% points, leaving core CPI Inflation at sub-1% by end-2024. Jan rate cut maybe?
Capital Economics retweeted
The collapse in the NY Fed manufacturing index to -43.7 in Jan is going to attract a lot of attention from the perma bears, but we'd caution it's more likely noise rather than signal.
Capital Economics retweeted
“The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings .. is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of 2023 and, with corporate bond yields falling .. the worst may already be behind us.”
@CapEconUS
Capital Economics retweeted
The recent surge in state & local government employment will soon fade, reflecting the earlier stagnation in tax receipts.
capitaleconomics.com/publica…
