2026 Topps Holiday MLB Deep Dive Maybe the cliffhanger I dropped right before my evening dinner plans was a bit excessive. But I assure you...it wasn't just for clicks. Holiday is back. And while it might look like the same old Holiday we've come to know, there are some pretty massive changes beneath the candy canes and Christmas lights . I'm happy to get into the what, the how, and the how much. But the why? Can't help you there. That's on Topps. Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball. If you like diving in the weeds of Topps products, be sure to check out my Substack, where I've given way too much attention to a couple hundred Topps releases at this point: slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2… Part 1: The Bones Release day for Holiday is tomorrow, October 21, at 11am CT. If you aren't able to hop on right at 11 to procure your share, don't worry about it. If pre-sale was any indication, it'll be in stock for a while. Not to mention, you'll be seeing it in every retail card aisle in America. This is not, by any means, a short printed product. First, let me tell you about the things that haven't changed. We still have Megas, Tins, and Advent Calendars. Megas still have 10 packs of 10 cards per box. Tins still have 1 pack of 59 cards per tin. Advent Calendars still contain 24 packs of 5 cards each. What remains unclear is whether the buyback pack and buyback card are returning. Neither appears on the odds sheet, but they weren't listed last year, either. So I'm not ready to rule them out. I doubt many collectors will lose sleep if the junk wax pack disappears. But I sure hope the buyback card sticks around. Last year, that single card was essentially the only thing in Advent Calendars with any legitimate chase potential. Some were numbered, plenty were 1/1s, and I saw a couple absolute monsters come out of that slot. The most fascinating was a Sapphire Padparadscha Hidden Gems Paul Skenes with a Holiday stamp in place of the 1/1 stamp. I had basically written off Advent Calendars because the regular packs offered no numbered cards or really any hit potential at all. And then somebody goes and pulls a card like THAT. I just love watching someone pull a nuclear warhead out of a product I'd already declared a dud. Retail Pricing: Mega- $30 Tins- $15 (3 Tin box $45) Advent Calendars- $60 Part 2: Production Numbers Total cards in the Product: 113,712,600 How this changes from last year is a bit murky. Last year, we were unable to calculate precise production of Advent Calendars due to the absence of any numbered parallels to go by. If I deduct Advent Calendar production from 2026 Holiday, that leaves 96,257,600 cards. Assuming similar Advent production, this only represents a 2.5% increase in total production YOY. I believe Advent Calendar production actually decreased from last year, but either way, the change in overall production from last year is insignificant. Total Production by Format: Mega- 571,760 boxes (28,588 cases) ---> -2.4% YOY Tins- 662,400 tins (220,800 3-tin boxes) ----> +10.8% YOY Advent Calendars- 145,458 calendars (18,182 cases) ---> YOY Unknown Up to now, everything is pretty much as expected. Nothing to report here, right? Hold up. We haven't even begun to discuss what actually changed. And the answer is...a lot. Part 3: Going Through Some Changes... About those "hits". First, let me be clear...Holiday is not, and has never been a Hit-centric product. Holiday's vibes are all about a fun and whimsical alternative to flagship base cards, some semi-short-print chases with Hidden Elves and Christmasy elements, and relics galore. Autos have always been extremely scarce in Holiday. And up until last year, Holiday Chrome didn't even exist. It seems Topps has completely changed directions this year. I want to highlight the differences in those "hits" from last year. Total Chrome Cards Throughout the Product: 2026- 885,897 2025- 291,401 YOY: +204% This is significant. And I'll come back to it momentarily. It's important to note, last year Chrome parallels were only available in the Mega Box format. This year, you'll also find roughly 1 Chrome for every 4 Advent Calendars. Still no Chrome in Tins though. Total Autos: 2026- 9,699 2025- 11,985 YOY: -19% Similar production, yet over 2,000 fewer Autos from an already Auto starved product. Total Parallels: For Holiday, I count parallels as not only Chrome & colors, but variations like Hidden Elf, SPs, and SSPs, since they don't fit smoothly into the insert category. 2026- 15,796,425 2025- 10,526,814 This one is a bit deceptive due to the unknown quantity of Advent Calendars in 2025. However, for 2026, there are almost 4.4m Parallels in Advent Calendars. So let's call this about a 800k card increase in Parallels, or roughly 7.5%. Not super significant. Total Relics: 2026- 2,375 2025- 309,682 YOY: -99.2% Yep. Not a typo. If Topps odds are correct, Relics have decreased by over 99% and have vanished almost entirely from Holiday. Now, on the surface, I can't say I hate it. Plain napkin relics by the pile have lost any kind of magic they ever held and carry virtually no value. Although, if there was a product where they kinda make sense it would be $30 Mega Boxes of Holiday. The problem is, those were your hits. Autos were always almost non-existent. Now relics are too. Since relics are extremely tough pulls now, it would be great if Topps took a little care and made them thick, chunky, dirty, Tier One style relics. But they won't. Not a chance. So what are we left with? Well, Chromes obviously. And quite honestly, I kinda suspect most people would prefer Chromes to Relics. At least the tiny, bland, player worn handkerchief relics that were employed by Holiday products. And last year all the Chromes were numbered. I mean, most were /499, but still numbered. So, if Chromes and Relics are a net neutral, what's the problem? The problem is, over 60% of those Chromes this year are not numbered. Just straight up, unnumbered, base Chrome. Which, in the absence of virtually all Autos & Relics, will now be considered your 1 "hit" per box. A base Chrome. Queue "Price is Right loser" sound. Part 4: Heat Map Expected Hit Rates by Format: Mega Box: Autos- 1 per ~59 boxes (~3 cases) Parallels- 11.1/box Inserts- 1/box SPs/SSPs- 3/box Numbered cards- 0.41/box (41% of boxes should contain a numbered card. Of these, 38% should be numbered Chrome, with about 3% containing a numbered paper parallel.) Chrome- 1.05 per box (since the number is not exactly 1, there is a chance a small number of boxes have multiple Chromes per box. And there's always a chance some boxes contain no Chromes.) Numbered Chrome- 0.38/box (38% of boxes should contain a numbered Chrome card) Relics- 1 per 240.75 boxes Tins: Autos are not pullable from Tins. Parallels- 7.6/tin (including 4 base Holiday Lights & 2 Blue Metallic Holiday Lights) Inserts- 1 per 3 Tins SPs/SSPs- 1.1/tin Numbered cards- 0.04 (~4% of Tins should contain a numbered card.) Chrome cards are not pullable from Tins. Relics are not pullable from Tins. Advent Calendars: Autos are not pullable from Advent Calendars. Parallels- ~30 per Calendar (includes 24 Holiday Plaid, 2 Base Stickers, 1 Variation SP, & 1 Variation Back SP, & 2 Chrome Plaid Refractors) Inserts- 18.5 SPs/SSPs- 4.13 per Calendar (Includes 2 Base Stickers) Numbered cards- 0.26 (26% of Advent Calendars should contain a numbered Chrome Refractor) Chrome- 2 (both Chrome Plaid Refractors) Relics are not pullable from Tins. Stocking Stuffer Packs: In last year's Holiday, every 10 cases or so, lucky degens would find a Stocking Stuffer bonus pack. Similar to Bowman Snack Packs, these contained 10 unnumbered parallels with print runs of ~10 copies ea. This year, I'm not seeing anything in the odds that says we will definitively have Stocking Stuffers again. However....there are a few parallels that have me wondering. Namely a little grouping on the odds sheet of Metallic Gingerbread Man, Metallic Candy Canes, & Metallic Stockings. I distinctly remember these being in Stocking Stuffer packs last year, because I actually pulled one. This year, these seem to be numbered (Gingerbread /50, Candy Cane /25, Stocking /10), so at minimum the packs if they exist will be different. Or at least the parallels will have different print runs and not all ~10. If you see one of these packs in the wild, please let me know. Part 5: Value Map $/Card: 1) Tins- 25¢ 2) Megas- 30¢ 3) Advent- 50¢ $/Parallel: 1) Tins- $1.97 2) Advent- $1.99 3) Mega- $2.70 $/Auto: 1) Mega- $1,768.50 $/# Card: 1) Mega- $73.17 2) Advent- $230.77 3) Tins- $375.00 $/Chrome: 1) Mega- $28.68 2) Advent- $30.40 $/Quality Hit: 1) Mega- $206.13 2) Advent- $484.14 3) Tins- $3,091.14 Part 6: Best Format As you can clearly see, the only format that doesn't suck significantly worse than last year are Advent Calendars, which *shockingly* are actually better than last year. The much-needed chase of a small Plaid Chrome rainbow makes these not disastrous, and miles better than the tins, which are basically void of any redeeming qualities whatsoever. OK, weirdly the tins are the best way to pull Hidden Elf SPs...so there's that. That said, for us degenerate rippers, I'm a long way from calling Advent Calendars a good format for ripping. $484 per Quality Hit is abysmal. But hey, they are good for doing exactly what they are meant for...Advent Calendaring. It's just nice to see them have a wee bit of upside this year. As much as it pains me to say it, Megas are still easily the best format, although they took a huge step backwards. I guess it's lofty to expect to see an actual hit in every $30 box of Holiday...but when those already inconsequential hits are being replaced with literal base Chrome cards? Come on, man. That's really tough to swallow. Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do? Pretty simple. I pre-ordered a stack, and I'm going to rip them with my son. No stashing. No flipping. No going hard after monsters. Just ripping packs, having fun, and spending some quality time with someone who enjoys this ridiculous hobby as much as I do. And if you've got someone pretty cool in your life who maybe doesn't share your obsession with cardboard, try it out just once. Sit down with a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, and talk about life. And baseball. Or whatever it is you have in common. Card box in hand or not. Doesn't matter. Not every rip needs to be an investment. And not every card needs to be worth something. Your investment is your time. Sometimes the best thing you pull out of a box isn't a card at all. And I think that's exactly what Topps Holiday is supposed to be. That's the hit, brother. Part 8: The Print Runs Numbered paper parallel structure is a bit weird and looks like this: Mega: Purple Glitter /99 Metallic Gingerbread Man /50 25th /25 Metallic Candy Cane /25 Red Metallic /10 Metallic Stocking /10 Menorah /8 Green Glitter /5 Golden Glitter /1 Tins: Purple Holiday Lights /99 Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10 Green Holiday Lights /5 Golden Metallic Holiday Lights /1 Base Card Production: ~472,130 ea Chrome Base: ~1,910 ea Unnumbered Parallels: Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~14,295 ea Blue Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~2,860 ea Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday (Mega & Tin only)- ~4,515 ea Snow Days- ~330 ea Base Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~13,250 ea Blue Metallic Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~6,625 ea Base Plaid (Advent only)- ~17,455 ea Base Stickers (Advent only)- ~1,455 ea Holiday Variation SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea Holiday Variation Backs SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea Holiday Variation SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea Holiday Variation Backs SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea Hidden Elf (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~2,620 ea Chrome Plaid Refractor (Advent only)- ~1,250 ea Base Chrome Refractors (Mega only)- ~100 ea (may or may not be numbered) Base Sparkle Refractors (Mega only)- ~50 ea (may or may not be numbered) Unnumbered Inserts: Oversized Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Mega only)- ~28,590 ea Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Tins only)- ~11,040 ea Making the Nice List (25 card CL, Advent only)- ~107,415 ea Unnumbered Autos: Base Autos (no checklist out, but based on odds looks to be about 104 subjects deep)- ~55 ea Holiday Relics Autos (45 card CL) should be numbered /5. Holiday Faux Relics Autos (5 card CL)- should be numbered /25. Unnumbered Relics: Base Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~35 ea Faux Relics (5 card CL)- ~12 ea Glitter Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~12 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB