Medical statistician interested in clinical trials and Bayesian methods. R & Stan. Sailing. SaintsFC. Potty mouth. https://xitter.cf/t.co/z9XTCBAArh

Worcestershire hills
Joined January 2009
Dorothy said ‘There’s no place like home’ because that’s where she understood the recycling
1
125
Dr Kristian Brock retweeted
“In no other branch of mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in probability theory.” — Martin Gardner
4
35
3
195
19,371
I listen to podcasts all day long whilst I work - but this episode of ⁦@QuietRiotPod⁩ by ⁦@sturdyAlex⁩ hits like a punch in the guts. Very worth a listen podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas…
3
1
10
12,983
How often does Logan Sargent yellow flag?🤦🏼‍♂️
139
We all need to revere xkcd like some kind of religious text
1
157
The folks at @ISBA_events tell me my book Statistical Rethinking has won the 2024 DeGroot Prize for its contributions to "statistical inference, decision theory and statistical applications". This is huge honor especially given the previous winners, who have influenced me so much
63
153
25
1,438
116,078
Dr Kristian Brock retweeted
A man killed during the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania dived on his family to try to shield them from the bullets, the state's governor has said trib.al/0i5wauA
26
30
6
130
45,481
Farewell Jimmy Anderson. Thank you for the memories ❤️
120
Maybe I need to direct thoughts like this directly to @metoffice
A question for statisticians, probabilists, and fans of the weather. Do you regard these probs as the probability that it will rain in each hour? Or the chances that it would rain over the course of the day if the conditions stayed as advertised?
115
A question for statisticians, probabilists, and fans of the weather. Do you regard these probs as the probability that it will rain in each hour? Or the chances that it would rain over the course of the day if the conditions stayed as advertised?
2
1
334
I ask because the probabilities look too big to me. I often see 20-40% for the hours in UK days. But that would suggest the prob of a dry 10 hour day (ie you can dry washing on the line) is about (1-0.3)^10 = 3%. And I don’t believe it rains on 97% of days like today
1
98
So my conclusion is that the advertised probs apply not to an hour but to a whole day. I could believe, for example, that it rains on 30% of days like today, if the whole day endured conditions like those prevailing now. (I get that changes but that’s fine; the probs change)
1
90
Right
53
1,262
57
13,001
465,659
Cameron has a huge legacy of idiocy and damage to the UK. This policy was right up there. It has been revoked by the new government within days of coming to power. Turns out, governing for good is possible when you’re not a complete dick
102
Dr Kristian Brock retweeted
A children’s hospital & a maternity hospital miles apart don’t get bombed in the same day by accident. This is a premeditated war crime. Russia is targeting women & children in Ukraine, not military facilities or government infrastructure - they are targeting women & children.
Russia bombed a SECOND hospital in Kyiv today. At least four people were killed in a missile strike on another medical institution - this time a maternity hospital.
151
1,834
87
5,313
477,557
Dr Kristian Brock retweeted
If you're in the UK, imagine fascist Russia bombing Great Ormand Street Hospital in London - that's effectively what just happened in Kyiv, #Ukraine. #Okhmatdyt children's hospital is a Ukrainian national institution. Reports the dialysis unit was hit, in photo, kids with cancer.
136
1,672
55
6,111
159,980
Maybe England can start their games 1-0 behind
2
203
Dr Kristian Brock retweeted
Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. An energy secretary who actually believes in aggressively fighting climate change. Not a bad afternoon.
1,182
8,642
777
63,625
3,280,510
This needs to be ended. Prime ministers who leave in disgrace should not have any pension for life. Maybe they need to last a full five years and lose in an election to qualify? Or maybe we just never needed this? – at Grâce-Hollogne, Belgique
Replying to @ShehabKhan
Truss is still on over £100k a year for the rest of her life just for being a PM lasting less the a bag of lettuce. Not bad
5
12
515