British Columbian, former Quebecer. I sometimes discuss politics (duh). (Real job: dismal scientist)
British Columbia, Canada
Joined August 2012
- Tweets32.2K
- Following233
- Followers3.2K
- Likes18K
Pinned Tweet
Update: After further analysis of the counting procedure, the most likely final election results appear to be:
62 🔵 47.7%
29 🟠 37.7%
2 🟢 11.0%
0 🔴 1.6%
0 1⃣ 1.5%
NDP strongly favoured to flip Ladysmith-Oceanside, while Cowichan Valley and Kelowna Centre are near tossups.
My tweet pointing out the flip in Ladysmith-Oceanside is great - it unearthed so many conspiracy theorists for me to block.
- Polls underestimated CON margin by 4-5 points.
- In terms of the modeled difference between regional and provincial margins, CON overperformed by ~5 points in Metro Vancouver and underperformed by ~5 points elsewhere.
These effects add in Metro Van and offset elsewhere.
Right now, model has offsetting errors on Island (Saanich South and Courtenay-Comox); everything right in the Interior.
There are 8 errors in Metro Van, all in the same direction. Further adjustment of 8-9 pts in Metro Van would flip 9 seats, so I'd overshoot by 1 seat for CONs.
I have analyzed this year's different counting procedure, which will lead to more ballots being added at final count. (Description in quoted tweet)
There are 9 ridings that CBC hasn't called. I'm ready to call 5 of them with 99.9%+ certainty.
xitter.cf/CdnElectWatch/status/2…
Made a slight mental math error when doing Kelowna Centre (32+21=59 apparently according to my sleep-deprived brain).
So Kelowna Centre should be pretty much a pure tossup - NDP probability of winning 40-65% according to my two methods.
Bolsonaro lost in Brazil, and Vucic lost in Serbia.
Both good news if you ask me! (I'm not a Lula fan, but Bolsonaro is worse.)
With the 5pm update, Ladysmith-Oceanside FLIPPED!
Elections BC appears to have discovered a mistake. As a result, 51 votes were moved from CON to NDP, turning an 89-vote CON lead into a 13-vote NDP lead.
We're currently at:
63 🔵 48.05%
28 🟠 37.37%
2 🟢 10.97%
Polls left at 12:10am:
- Burnaby North: 5 advance
- Coquitlam-Burke Mtn: 1 advance
- Fraser-Nicola: 3 e-day
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat: 1 advance
- Kootenay-Monashee: 1 e-day
- Langford-Highlands: 3 e-day
- Langley-Abbotsford: 2 e-day
- Langley-Willowbrook: 1 advance
At 3pm, North Island reported its 3 remaining polls.
5 polls in 2 ridings left:
3 Fraser-Nicola
2 Prince George-North Cariboo
Expected result after final count:
62-63 🔵 47.8%
28-29 🟠 37.6-37.7%
2 🟢 10.9-11.0%
0 🔴 1.6%
0 1⃣ 1.5%
Assuming above, average absolute error on 3 main parties:
1.7% Pollara
1.8% Pallas
2.1% Innovative/Forum/Research Co.
2.4% Léger/Ipsos
3.4% Angus Reid
3.8% Mainstreet
My estimation based on past data is that there is maybe 9-10% of the vote left to be considered at final count.
If that is correct, the final turnout will be around 53%.
Watch out! More mail ballots remain this year than in 2024.
In 2024, ballots arriving more than 4 days before the election were counted on election night. The others were counted during the final count.
This year, ALL mail ballots are counted during the final count.
As it turns out, out-of-district e-day votes are more CON than average. These being counted only during the final count should offset the increase in the number of mail ballots left to the final count. So average shift to the NDP should still be ~0.5%.
Based on the current vote, if you added the NDP and the Green vote in every riding:
51 🔵 48.05%
42 🟠🟢 48.35%
Crazy instant-runoff election that started 20 straight years of Socred rule!
19 SC (27.2%)
18 CCF (30.8%)
6 LIB (23.5%)
4 PC (16.8%)
1 LAB (0.2%)
Interim Socred leader was an Alberta MP who didn't even run for a seat!
WAC Bennett was elected leader by the caucus a month later.
