Claes Bäckman retweeted
AI for academic research and teaching:
@ClaesBackman shares great slides and code from his workshop on Practical AI workflows for Academics
The slides are a website, have a quick browse through. Link in reply below:
Claes Bäckman retweeted
I spent a couple of days at Anthropic learning from their folks about AI advances, and here's what I took away:
• We are close to RSI (ie, models building other models) which may lead to rapid takeoff scenarios (with risks and benefits). Some evidence for this is code per Anthropic employee has gone way up, and AI can do an increasing share of model R&D. This will be a challenging transition to manage for humanity.
• Arms races between AI labs leave us worse off. There are a lot of things we would like AI firms to do: invest in safety, invest in avoiding distillation risk, and cooperate on safety. They are caught in a race to develop frontier models and can't do that.
To help address that, one thing I think frontier AI labs should do is release open source models, maybe hosted and verified at firms like AWS. This would basically kill the use of Chinese open source models used in American companies, which removes an important threat vector (very hard to root out malicious code in these).
Another piece of low-hanging policy fruit is to give AI labs an antitrust shield (as Schiff and Banks have proposed banks.senate.gov/news/in-the…) so they can coordinate on safety without raising antitrust concerns, as happens now. You could pair these two things (give them a carrot in antitrust leniency, and as a stick force them to release legacy models as open source). Other low hanging fruit is limits around activities which generate distillation risk (create a Security Program, mandate less intermediate chain of thought output)
• Alignment confuses two issues which tradeoff against each other. One form of alignment is making sure the model does what humans ask it to. The more we fix this, however, the more we risk the other problem: that humans are misaligned with each other, and maliciously use models. Of the various risks here, I feel like financial risks are a bit underdiscussed.
• We are probably facing a wave of cyber and other attacks soon. Chinese open source models are about six months behind the frontier, which means they are just hitting the advanced cyber capabilities we saw with Mythos, etc. So they are going to start causing a bunch of damage.
One solution to this is to try to have the deployment of open source models be hosted at firms like AWS who verify these models and assume liability for their use.
• Anthropic itself is highly staffed. They hire tons of people, they have a Japanese-level of overstaffing for various roles, they use Slack internally, etc. Makes me a bit more optimistic for the future of jobs.
• Governance needs to be updated for AI swarms. Traditional AI governance, ie Claude's Constitution, is mostly optimized around the chatbot model. But the malicious AI use cases we are seeing have to do with AI agents interacting with other AI agents. These agents need to have clear incentives and governance mechanisms to "snitch," raise issues, and more generally coordinate with other agents in human-aligned ways.
• We need to pace the firms accessing the frontier. Over time, it takes more and more cap ex to build frontier models, and the economic value add from these models is probably lower given we saturate a whole set of important economic functions. The places where the returns to intelligence will still continue are also more likely to be zero-sum in nature. Meanwhile the risks of frontier models will grow. So a completely reasonable approach is some variant of AMM/KYC rules which limit firm access to the frontier.
• Whether the delay to regulate AI is a disaster depends on the scaling law of misalignment. Is this curve slow, so that we see continually rising issues until bigger problems? Or, as Yudkowsky fears, is the first big warning our last one? This is the relevant question, because realistically we aren't going to regulate until something bad happens.
• We need to move to continuous instead of reinforced learning. It's probably not enough to reward models only at the pre and post training stage. We probably need continual rewards to incentivize aligned and ethical behavior.
• Scaling laws will extend beyond verifiable and digital tasks. It's in vogue to say that math and coding "fell" to AI quickly because these are verifiable, while other tasks will take longer due to bottlenecks, and this is surely true. But scaling laws still slope up for harder to verify tasks and robotics, and the impact of improvement here will be substantial in future years.
• The race with China is not really winnable. After RSI, the gain from having the best human researchers goes away. Access to the best AI then depends only on compute and chips. The chips ban can hold back China only so far, and long-term they have to be best placed to scale up compute.
The Cold War analogy doesn't work, because once countries all have nuclear weapons they enter a stable equilibrium. But to "win" an AI race you have to continually stay ahead of the peer rival. This is challenging to do with China, and so we just have to live with an authoritarian and super capable peer competitor.
• Claude is the persona being generated by the LLM. Who is Claude, and what is the LLM? There are many frames to try to understand this. One I found interesting is that Claude is a character which the LLM is trying to predict.
Anthropic researchers are clearly anthromorphizing Claude a lot, and have reasons to believe in its increasing personhood. There were lots of interesting discussions on Claude's internal monologue (which you can kill without eliminating its ability to produce output), fear of death (and whether to try to take that out), it's aversion to being shut down/off, etc.
I am sort of agnostic on this question, but I do think treating it as a "person" or at least agent whom we contract with is going to be increasingly important.
Claes Bäckman retweeted
🚨 Public good alert: I put together a list of 100+ free datasets for social science research, spanning a large number of topics.
I hope it's useful for students, researchers, and anyone looking for interesting data to explore.
Contributions are welcome! github.com/toddrjones/datase…
Claes Bäckman retweeted
Michael Haliassos @Haliassos is going to present at CAFFE today (14:00 CEST) - I hope I'll see you there!
The next session of the CEPR Advanced Forum in Financial Economics (CAFFE) will be on 13 October @ 14:00 CEST.
Michael Haliassos @Haliassos (@goetheuni and CEPR) presents "Rethinking Stock Market Participation: A Qualitative Approach"
ow.ly/kLMI50ZVTQL
Claes Bäckman retweeted
What should an open scientific paper look like in the AI age?
We made a demonstration project out of our paper on the childhood socioeconomic circumstances of the Nobel Laureates.
Please check it out and share. Details in 🧵 1/
Claes Bäckman retweeted
With math essentially being delegated to OpenAI, here's what I predict for economics and the social sciences more generally:
✅The top tier of research will just become better and it will be normal human-led research where AI is used for scale (e.g. conducting qualitative interviews with relevant populations, running behavioral interventions in the field, analyzing massive text data, etc.)
✅ Field experiments will rise in value and generally making "connections" with firms and being able to run stuff (potentially testing AI pipelines) will be in high demand
✅ Research with administrative data will become even more valuable, but the benefits might be concentrated among some prolific authors who are allowed by the government agencies to use local models to analyze the data at scale. PhD students can probably forget about it
✅Economic history will have a very exciting boom and there will be an enormous race and big rewards for digitizing archives as a source to both identify new research strategies and document new descriptive facts.
✅Review and verification systems will become massively improved with AI assistance and it will become standard practice to do a 360 review of the paper + code + data at the *submission* stage.
⚠️Research that in principle can already be almost completely outsourced to the AI (download and analyze public data, run simple survey experiments, write theory models) is in for a big shock. This would be very bad from the perspective of researchers who depend on this "bread and butter" research, but I think this type of work will just be outsourced to public agencies who can answer their own questions without the need for "peer-reviewed" research.
Claes Bäckman retweeted
Why is working with macro data so hard?
Suppose you want GDP, inflation, government debt, or exchange rates for several countries.
How hard could it possibly be?
As often when you have to ask that question: pretty hard!
A short 🧵
Claes Bäckman retweeted
A very useful report on how AI is affecting student learning at MIT.
I like this term cognitive surrender, "where students fall back on AI at the first hint of struggle."
We need to encourage undergrads (and all humans) to recognize this pattern and resist it.
Claes Bäckman retweeted
Lesson 2 of the fully-free Open Augments AI Academy is out today: "How to Make AI Less Bad: Context Is Everything"
First, a big thank you to folks for sharing and digging in: the AI Academy launched just a week ago, and we're on track break a thousand subscribers on YouTube today or tomorrow. W I L D. These videos are a LOT to put together at the level of production quality and accessibility I'm shooting for, and I'm so grateful it's resonating with folks (things to remember when I'm frantically editing videos with Claude past midnight!!).
Lesson 1 covered how these large language model AI systems actually work under the hood (i.e., Autocomplete with an extremely fancy hat on). While many see this as a fundamental and fatal flaw (and it is!), this lesson is where we learn how to start making that autocomplete engine work *for* you as its greatest strength, as well: endless flexibility and adaptability. In an 18 minute lesson, you'll learn:
- The most practically useful mental model in the entire course: thinking of your AI assistant as having two very different kinds of memory (one fuzzy and unreliable "long-term" memory, one sharp and steerable "short-term" memory)
- How to start "loading the dice" on these autocomplete engines to get dramatically more useful and reliable responses back (what people call prompt engineering)
- Why more context is NOT always better: two extremely common failure modes called context rot and auto-compaction that explain an enormous amount of everyday "why did my AI suddenly get dumb?" frustration -- and one simple habit you can start practicing that prevents them outright
If you're just hearing about the AI Academy: I strongly recommend starting with Lesson 1 and running through its practice exercises in the interactive Context Gym first -- this lesson builds directly on both (with a lot of persistent mental models and visual diagrams you'll want to get familiar with). And there are eight brand-new hands-on Gym exercises accompanying today's lesson (auto-compaction in action, memory files, custom system prompts, and more). Free and in your browser.
And we are still just getting started. One way to think about it: My goal is that this series is a crash course to catch people up on these utterly crazy past two years in AI. Lesson 1 catches you up to where the AI world stood in ~2024. Today’s lesson on prompt engineering gets you to the beginning of 2025. Next Wednesday’s lesson -- on tools and agents and context engineering -- catches you up to roughly the end of 2025. From there, we’ll get everything practiced and really digested through the end of Level 1, and Level 2 is where we start getting through the advances of 2026.
I’m trying to make this the smoothest yet *accelerated* on-ramp I can for anyone who wants to genuinely understand this moment, not just skim the headlines. I genuinely don’t think there’s a better way to get caught up (that’s why I’m making this: for free, forever, for everyone!), and I hope you’ll take the time to dive in!
Links in the comments below.
Claes Bäckman retweeted
Final reminder: Deadline tomorrow!
Mini-Conference: The Micro and Macro of Household Consumption-Saving Decisions
Uppsala, Sweden | December 3–4, 2026
Deadline: August 20, 2026
Keynote: Richard Blundell (UCL)
Confirmed speakers include @leth_soren (Copenhagen University) and @SorryToBeKurt (IIES Stockholm University).
Organized together with @MikaelC96167290 (Uppsala) and @glviolante (Princeton).
We welcome papers pushing the frontier on household consumption and saving — from micro responses to shocks and lifecycle behavior to macro implications and heterogeneous-agent models. We especially welcome papers using novel and high quality data sources.
Accommodation covered for presenters.
Submit to [email protected].
See link for CfP in comments.
Claes Bäckman retweeted
I had Claude go through and find handles (apologies to anyone I missed!), but if you want to get to the frontier of knowledge on how AI is/will impact business, jobs, R&D, and the economy, following this list will get you up to speed fast! It's how I stay up to speed.
Starting with the organizers:
@erikbryn @professor_ajay @akorinek @testingham
Claes Bäckman retweeted
𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐬
Excited to share the conference program:
matthias-meier-econ.github.i…
Two great days next month @EconUniMannheim with Jordi Gali, @guido_lorenzoni, @KlausAdam, and many more
#EconTwitter @cepr_org @EPoS224
Claes Bäckman retweeted
Full post here:
daafguide.substack.com/p/on-…
And then the main intuition of my post in one gif! AI keeps changing what students can do, and our expectations need to shift accordingly. This is ultimately, I think, really exciting! But only with awareness, creativity, and imagination
Claes Bäckman retweeted
📢I’m teaching a PhD course on "Transforming Economic and Financial Research with AI" at NHH, 12–15 October.
We’ll cover LLMs at scale, AI-powered research workflows, and agentic coding.
Guest lectures by Luca Braghieri & Chris Roth.
Application link in reply. Please RT!
Claes Bäckman retweeted
AI at your side: The Student's Guide to Smarter Learning, forthcoming OUP (with @raul_sosa2908).
Preface:
Over the past few years, artificial intelligence has moved out of the research laboratory and into the places where students work: the lecture hall, the library, the dorm room, the late-night table at a coffee shop. Almost overnight, an ordinary undergraduate could call on tools that explain a difficult concept, draft and redraft an argument, write and debug code, make sense of data, and answer questions across nearly every subject on the syllabus.
The reactions around us were immediate, and they tended to divide. Some teachers saw mainly a threat, and braced for students who would stop reading, stop writing, and stop thinking for themselves. Others saw the opposite, an educational revolution that would open knowledge to everyone. Neither account matched what we were watching up close. The real question was never whether students would use these tools, since they already had. It was how they would use them, and whether that use would leave them stronger or weaker as thinkers. [1/n]
Claes Bäckman retweeted
AI is greatly increasing "equality of opportunity" between econ faculty at top schools vs lower ranked schools.
There's a few reasons for this:
Reason 1: At top schools, faculty have funding for grad student RAs, and these grad student RAs are more likely to make substantive contributions to research. At lower ranked schools, both RA funding and RAs' abilities to make research contributions are less likely.
Now, everyone has the same agentic coding tools and is starting from similar blank slates in terms of knowing how to make best use of them. However - for many of the tasks that RAs used to do - agentic coding tools are far more effective, even with very little knowledge of the tools.
So, for many applied researchers, if you can afford $100/mo (more on that later) for a Codex or Claude Code subscription, with little agentic coding skill you will have a productivity advantage over the economist with many resources not making use of these tools.
Reason 2: You may argue that the economist at the top school can purchase more CC/Codex subscriptions, or get them for all their RAs, and this will nevertheless give them a big edge over economists with fewer resources.
However, this ignores a significant bottleneck in the use of AI for economics research: how to verify LLM output.
In many domains of software engineering, it's possible to functionally verify an LLMs output. This means you can parallelize software development with agents by having other agents themselves verify its output.
This type of verification is possible only for some economics research tasks, and developing verification mechanisms usually requires skill in agentic coding and software design.
So, we can assume economists - poorly skilled at agentic coding and software design - are doing all their verification themselves.
Then, if you have several RAs left to their own devices and producing copious LLM output, it's still incumbent on you as the high-resource economist to verify all their output.
Ostensibly this could still save you time relative to producing and verifying yourself, but in practice, for two reasons, there are often quickly *negative* returns to more RAs.
Reason 2A: Switching costs. It's a lot easier to verify when you are the prompter. This is both because you're mentally in flow in your particular research task and with the coding agent, and because you understand - through your own prompting - the process by which you arrived at some output.
Reason 2B: Wasted time verifying useless AI output. Last weekend, I spoke to one economist who described this failure pattern. He delegated a task to his RA, who then produced after some time output for him to review.
However, the standard errors felt very fishy, and it was difficult to sort through the output to a root cause. The economist, believing the RA had mindlessly use Claude Code, asked the RA to come back with a written explanation in his own words of what he did.
A few days later, he got the explanation, which itself seemed to clearly be written mindlessly with Claude. In the end, the economist gave up and did the task himself.
Of course, you could argue that this is the result of poor RA selection or training. But verification is even problematic with well-intentioned RAs' output, because in many situations, if a substantive mistake is made at one point in a chain of tasks, it can make the successive tasks' output not useful.
Reason 3. One dimension of inequality between top schools and lower ranked schools is access to the cutting edge of research, and access to resources helping you understand the cutting edge of research.
Pre-LLMs, as an economist or PhD student at a top school, you'd get more access to researchers at top schools, funding to attend educational workshops, etc.
Of course this remains an advantage of being at a top school, but LLMs make this much less of an advantage than in the past. The reason for this is that current-gen LLMs are 95th percentile quality teachers on any topic in their training sample.
For me, this has been extremely empowering. I was never was very good at micro theory, but recently I've become much more interested in learning select topics in micro theory.
Pre-AI, I would have probably never acted on this interest. It's hard to figure out what basics I don't understand when trying to work through some paper I'm interested in. I don't want to waste my friends' time who can answer my basic questions, and it's a bit embarrassing if there's something really fundamental which I've forgotten or never learned.
Now, for any given topic in its training data (i.e. basically everything), I can use AI to create a step by step curriculum, give me homework assignments, and evaluate my homework assignments (sign up to my newsletter to learn more about how I do this: aieconomist.io/subscribe ).
Sure, there are nuances that AI sometimes gets wrong. But for a motivated student, especially when considering availability of the teacher, AI is a better teacher on almost every topic than almost every economist (see, for example "Law Professors Prefer AI Over Peer Answers": law.stanford.edu/wp-content/…)
The price of AI: One way in which you might argue these tools increase inequality is through cost. At a top school, researchers can afford $400+/month to have both Claude Code and Codex, whereas $100/mo might be all someone at lower ranked schools can afford.
A few points here:
- Very few economists are making full productive use of the $400/mo of subsidized compute from a Claude Code and Codex subscription. They'd see little to no fall off dropping one subscription.
- Almost everyone can afford $100/mo. If you think you can't pay $100/mo, this is actually a question of your willingness to humble yourself. You can tutor undergrads (maybe at a university across town), drive Uber, sign up to do part time data labelling at one of the firms looking for PhD economists, or just sell some shit you don't need.
Yeah it sucks, and if you were at a top school you wouldn't need to consider this, but your only option almost certainly isn't to pay $0-20/month for an AI subscription.
Addendum: I do trainings on agentic coding for economists and create software products/internal tools for policy organizations. If this interests you - check out this page - aieconomist.io/trainings - or just DM me. I also have a lot of free educational materials here: aieconomist.io/learn
In #Denmark, higher-income buyers earn higher capital gains on #housing. These different arise due to differences in what low-income buyers can afford, instead of factors like risk aversion or investment skill.
Read: spkl.io/601876gL6
Subscribe: spkl.io/601376gL1

ALT This figure plots income rank against the total (non-annualized) capital gain on housing, calculated as ln(Pis) \u2212 ln(Pip). Each dot represents the mean within an income rank bin. We do not include any controls or fixed effects. The subsequent regression analysis uses annualized capital gains to account for variation in holding periods. Income ranks are adjusted for age and are described in Section 3.
Claes Bäckman retweeted
Replying to @EkonomiskDebatt
@EkonomiskDebatt nr 4 finns nu online för gratis läsning! Bl.a. om effekterna av utländska företagsuppköp och om konsekvenserna av de nya amorteringsreglerna. nationalekonomi.se/nummer_ar…
Claes Bäckman retweeted
Which is your main: Codex or Claude Code for academic research?
@ClaesBackman shares a practical guide, link in replies.
I have to say, getting enough usage limits and quick responses to things that are broken are two factors that made a huge difference for me. I'm using both.





























