NY Times Bestselling Author, over 1 million copies sold, now published in 12 languages globally. Long-time @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport
New York, NY
Joined March 2009
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Got Hard Assets?
It's Happening - Financial Repression
Breaking - LONG-TERM US YIELDS DROP ON TREASURY PLANS TO BOOST BUYBACKS - Bloomberg
*TREASURY 5-YEAR YIELD FALLS 15 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.80%
*Credit risk surges with a bond rally, hmmmmm.
Quick update - a few things you need to know right now.
CIO level Ideas Dinner - Special thanks to Astrid & Gaston! An outstanding venue.
"biggest threat to USD bears right now, is the FREXIT, France has to roll $500B debt annually, well known bear case, the gov proposed $50B in savings in recent weeks, that has already been wiped out by the change in spread (credit risk last 30 days), a lot of their rolling debt is refi-ing near 5% from zero to 2% (bonds issued 2020-2022, interest on the debt is exploding higher. The ECB must stop the bal sheet runoff, threaten the bears with $10B a month of QE to stop this bleeding. SX7E -14% drawdown, new local lows, with the XLF +600bps off the October lows (strong counter trend rally), this is telling" CIO London
Lawrence McDonald retweeted
Elon says neoclouds execution risk is very real.
Some neoclouds will prove to be operators and some will be exposed as promoters.
The unsecured bonds have capped upsides and IMO close to zero in a bankruptcy so market is demanding high yields.
Big dispersion = higher yields
Looking down the road ahead. Special thanks to StoneX for hosting us in Lima, Peru this week. Pension funds, family offices, some of Latam’s best. Gratitude 🙏
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Inflation looks like it's back and needs some work.
*From 2012-2020 (the Lost World), the highest year-over-year inflation print was 2.9%, vs. 3.7% in last week's CPI data.
ANTHROPIC PROPOSES AI SAFETY BILL TO LAWMAKERS: POLITICO
*Translation -- We are worried about our spineless MOAT, so we need help from Washington to keep cheap China / Asia AI out of the USA.
Important color from this week’s CIO level Ideas Dinner in NYC, special thanks to the Harvard Club for hosting a UMass guy. Software $IGV ETF off -5% today - After weaker (potentially disruptive) incoming data, many fortune 500 companies (like Goldman) are moving away from “frontier models” in favor of a portfolio of cheaper open source plays. Alert - Anthropic needs to juice their forward looking revenue - Pollyannish outlook - into the (expected) November IPO, software names have a target 🎯 on their back.
cc @chamath @RealJimChanos @jimwpaulsen @nfergus @andrewrsorkin @RaoulGMI
Shot last week, @MichelleMakori is ALWAYS a few steps ahead.
Rate cuts by early 2027?
Larry McDonald @Convertbond argues the Fed can’t sustain rate hikes amid $1.1 trillion in government debt interest and mounting consumer stress. He sees a potential shift toward rate cuts and opportunities in gold, silver, REITs, and utilities.
Watch the full interview on The Real Story with @MichelleMakori. YouTube Link in the replies.
