Creation

The roadmap for the market will become clearer after November 3rd. Until then, trust nothing....

$NVDA The leader of the MAGS needs to get some legs and hold over this 205 level to sustain the bull-case. After 205 watch 210 for possible resistance, with 217.50 being the first real target in the near-term. If we somehow get over 217.50 then it seems appropriate to make 230 the final target. On the flip side, if 205 can't break you'll want to see 200 act as the first support level, with 190 being that strong line-in-the-sand that you don't want to break. If we do get below 200 then we wouldn't suggest heavy longs until we do see that 190 level, but if we break below there then the bull-case is invalidated for the near-term. The good news for NVDA if it does break down and below 190, is that it most likely won't be alone and at that point we'll probably be talking about an overall market correction. That Friday trend down did not do any favors for instilling confidence in the market, and now it looks like all eyes are going to be on Tuesday to see how midterms shake out.

$GOOGL Just a brutal week for Alphabet, missing earnings and posting their worst single-day for shares ever on Wednesday. Range-bound here between 275-290, scalps off the bottom and top could play out if you're looking for some quick hitters. We can't see it happening any time soon, but if we were to crash under 275, then 270 may try to catch us, but 265 looks like a strong wall against any further downside. Over 290 you can target 295, and in the short-term that seems like a good upside target to have for now, especially with the current market conditions. If we could be so lucky as to get bullish macro news, then a break over 295 makes that 310 OpEx level seem attractive. With the recent price action from GOOGL this week, if you are going to play this you have to be in and out for now. The dust still very much needs to settle because that earnings was an unpleasant surprise.

After this week, especially Friday, this is the last thing you want to see if you're an AI bull....

$TSLA Floating around in No Man's Land right now, TSLA seems like a no-touch until we get more decisiveness. If we can hold 390 as support WITH volume, then the r/r for calls seems worth it for a target back to 400 (OnSight level). If we can't hold 390, TSLA has to bounce off of 380 which is our revival level. Until we see a reshuffle, calls at current spot feel like a coin flip, especially with how TSLA can move intraday. The 410 level will be our first area of interest to see if it wants more upside, and if we can break over 412.50 then calls to 420 seem decent. After 420 we expect 425 to be a hard-stop, with anything above just sending us into a grindy discovery. With the current dealer positioning, the ONLY side that makes sense is calls off 390 or potentially 380 if we get down there. Below 380 then thesis is invalidated and you can just sit on hands until we see money shift around.

Here's what was driving Friday's price action, and it was consistent all day. Massive amounts of calls being sold while puts continued to be bought for the whole session. A simple yet beautiful look at how these trend days behave alongside premiums....

$IWM In a market driven by lots of bad earnings and uncertainty in the large/mega-caps, small-caps have been increasingly becoming our favorite index to play. Closing price for IWM was 279.33 on Friday, which is right at this -GEX floor at 279-280. If you're interested in calls, you'll want to see 279 hold up going into open on Monday, but your levels below to watch are 277 and then 275 if we do get all the way down there. Below 275 just sit out and see how we react to this -GEX cluster between 270-272. If we can base down there then some dated-calls could really pay. If we do hold 279 over the weekend and into Monday, calls targeting 282-282.50 seem very reasonable for the time being. If we can get enough volume over that 283 level you can pretty much bet on us seeing that 285 OnSight level. One of our favorites on the list at the moment.

$HOOD Update Blood blood blood. It’s all blood. With everything down heavily tonight, could we see a little bit of relief tomorrow? Hood looks to be in a mega bounce zone. Will definitely need to track where we open up tomorrow but expect a decent bounce off 87 (maybe a slight undershoot into 86-85) back up to 90 and potentially higher.

$SPCX 🚀 Update Intraday play up for grabs tomorrow? A lot of these names appear to be at supports overnight but let’s hope they leave it around here so we can actually PLAY them in the New York session. 140 looking like a decent floor to play upside to 144-145. Lose 140 and we should catch at 137. Upside play there as well. 144-145 look tough to break at the moment.

$TSLA 🚗 Heatmap + Visual Levels ⬇️ It wouldn’t be a friday without a tsla heatmap. As the market dumps this name holds decently steady over the last week…. If these reshuffle in the morning and we get a floor below, will update the map. Right now it looks like you could play a rejection off 405 if we get it. Break 405 and 415 could be in play if for some reason it rips. 395 could be a light floor but under that we’ve got 387.5 Let’s see what they do with this tomorrow.

$INTC Until we see statistically significant revenue from AI and data centers, expect this to happen to every company that gives bad guidance. You can double-beat all you want, but this market only cares about where you're going in the future.

$TSLA Update Are you paying attention? 387.5 to the PENNY OHHH BOY WATCH THAT 400 and 410

$INTC 🙊 Good night Intel. It’s between those two lower nodes in the middle now, yikes 🤮.

$HOOD Posted this thesis last night in our TK Tuesday session on the BreadCast and it played out nicely. As of this morning, thesis still largely intact. Robinhood has been trying to base this 92 level for the last 1.5 hours. If we can base here, 94 is going to be a heavy test, and a break through will bring about 96 for another test. Over that we get into that 98 area. Downside protection is going to have to be 90 if you're playing weeklies, which we believe can hold for now. Under 90, 85 is going to be a solid support and the best entry for some heavy calls.

PCE is increasing, but no surprises this month as compared to last month. Jobless claims came in under the forecast which means the Fed's thesis of a steady labor market is holding. GDP is up which means we are producing as a country, but consumer spending came in significantly under the mark. Overall, we got a muted/mixed reaction from the market this morning. Inflation is still elevated to no-one's surprise which means retail spending is gonna be way down. However, it appears that people are working and our GDP #'s are reflecting growth in production. It feels like this data did nothing to dispel any rumors of another rate hike by the end of the year, which has been in the talks for December.

$MSFT Heatmap Update 👇 The initial earnings move was great, we hit all the way up to $570 before basing around after hours around that $555 node. Unfortunately, there was no oppurutnity to get out at that price. There is still some solid exposure at $555 which is interesting to us, but since we hit it already- we don’t think we get back up there. $517.50 can act as a floor if we get there, that is also the area of the S/R flip we posted earlier this week.