Yesterday, I made the decision to sell all of my Bitcoin and Altcoins as I feel data has grown exhausted, which has shifted my perspective from bullish to bearish. I sold my Bitcoin at $112,596.64 I sold my Ethereum at $4,500.82 I have been holding both coins from these prices since November 2022 with no buys or sales in between: Bitcoin: $16,558.55 Ethereum: $1,196.79 I believe the cycle top has already occurred as of August 2025 at 124k. This won't be a popular opinion, just as it wasn't when I did the same thing in April 2021. Will it be right? I have no idea. I am content with my decision and happy with my profits. The full details of my decision are in my latest newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/crypto…

Biggest rally between a phase 3 and 4 on weekly MFI ever. Needless to say, a cooldown is warranted. Phase 4 is underway and then finally, according to this observation, the bear market is complete!

The timeline is in a bullish craze, which lines up perfectly with the weekly Fisher Transform making a negative crossover in the local high zone. Very few false signals here. What many will like about this: the weekly Fisher Transform has never been this high outside of a bull market. That doesn't mean things can't change. I'm still convinced a correction is coming toward the end of this year. Once we're through that window, I'll be much more bullish. The cycle still being right after all this would be the ultimate example of it can still happen when everyone expects it, because no one does now.

My hot take, which will either age like wine or milk, is that the cycle bottom is still not set. To be clear, that's not what most evidence favors. But, in the event of a convincing false low which has both achieved cycle bottom levels and reached bull market start thresholds, it would be hard to tell the difference. If Bitcoin blasts to 95k+, this take is going to look silly, but that's ok because I'd rather share my real thoughts. There's always every excuse under the sun to say the cycle is broken or changed. (ETFs, institutions, fixed supply, etc.) But so far the cycle has remained on track despite all of these things. Why would it suddenly break now? And no, the June low does not complete the cycle; it strictly needs to be in Nov - Jan. So my full invalidation point is just after this time frame. This allows at least the top two moving averages here to see a retest (44 - 50k). Other possibilities are an equal or higher low to 58k that still offer good buying prices. So if Nov - Jan is passing and Bitcoin is racing higher, then I will call a firm cycle change and go from there.

I'm still under the impression that things are not as they appear... But we'll know in the coming months if that's true. Bitcoin has reached "first local high" territory across most metrics, including here on the Stochastic RSI phases. Other phase 1s brought about lengthy and/or punishing corrections. I'm a simple person: I want a significant low in Nov–Jan! Cycle timing stays on track... we have our normal 3 years of a bull market to follow. At least, the data does suggest that we are reaching short-term exhaustion and that lower prices are very likely. How low is the question.

If your hope was that this really has been a bullish breakout, you'd also want to see a support retest at the "Good Retest" line on short-term MVRV. Making a higher high is one piece of reversing the trend, but forming the higher low is just as important. Across many indicators, including here, bitcoin has reached local high territory. Don't worry, I'm not going to be bearish forever. I just want a clean house for a clean bull market.

One hot topic lately has been the US 10-Year Treasury Yield rate. Mostly because it had been going down for 40 years and now it's breaking out. I think I've found a clear cycle structure for the US10Y tied to the overall market. And no, it doesn't show a recession coming soon. Quite the opposite. According to this cycle view, the 10-year rate will continue to rise until about 2060. Yeah... a very long time! Interest rates going up or down don't imply prices go up or down. The important part is the pivot. Recessions come about 180 months after a major top or bottom pivot in interest rates. Or about 2 - 3 years after the pivot points on the sine wave. This puts the next recession starting around the end of 2034, the same date projected by the Quartercent Cycles Theory. We are right in the middle of the expansion period now, the best economic times available. The limiter here is that we've only seen two 40-year periods, but this is strengthened with intra-cycle evidence. Here's the TLDR: - 10-year interest rates higher for a long time (2060) - Recession due end of 2034 - We're in the good times until then

It's been up and up for stocks since the 15-year high in 2024. The next short-term high isn't until 2028 according to the Quartercent Cycles Theory. My AI stock portfolio has been doing well so far and I expect that to continue. So here's my cycle view on all major categories: Bitcoin: bear market ends in Nov - Jan (timewise) Stocks: generally on the up and up for the next couple of years Gold: Bear market until 2030 or 2031. Everything has been right on track so far. Just need to see what Bitcoin does at the end of this year.

Global M2 strength is a metric that says no go on the cycle bottom. Sure, maybe the pattern has changed, but it had great accuracy as recently as the last cycle top (money flow end at red dot) and before that many times over. We'd need a move below the low global cash influx line and a strong surge to mark a new phase 1. Excellent accuracy for cycle bottoms. This one is interesting to me because I would consider it an "outside source" rather than waiting for oversold weekly Bitcoin RSI, etc.

Here's my latest read on the volume profile: 84k is the start of strong resistance. Breaking through 98k would imply an easy move to new ATHs. 57k–80k is still very strong support. In the event it breaks at the end of the year, price should find strong support at 47k. My price opinion is that Bitcoin will probably have trouble breaking through the 84k–98k barrier. Price is most likely to at least return to the 57k–80k range, and in a more aggressive and traditional cycle scenario, break below it and find support at 47k.

Because of the shallow low, some indicators like Transaction Volume Strength didn't fully reset and are already back at cycle top levels of strength. There have been instances of visiting this zone and it not being a cycle top (Sep 2012, Jan 2016, Jun 2019), but it is at least a place that triggers a deep pause.

Many data pieces like Logarithmic MVRV show gradually weaker cycle tops. Since this metric never had a chance to visit cycle bottom levels, what happens? "It will just break the cycle top levels to the upside!" Maybe... This all just seems fishy to me. November - January of this year will tell all. Blasting to new ATHs as some people expect? Or has everything we've seen generated a convincing false end to the bear market? Again my opinion is that even if the lows are in, real optimistic price action is not due right away.

Here's a comparison worth considering: 2015 vs 2026 A similar story. Bear Market downtrend broken to the upside, and even a higher high made in July 2015. And yet, a new low was made in August 2015. By all accounts, the bear market was completely over after Jan 2015, even according to the Halving Cycles Theory. I remain confident that Nov 2026- Jan 2027 will bring a signifcant low, even if that does not best 58k of June 2026.

Ok CryptoCon, so now is the 4 year cycle dead? Sorry, not until after Nov - Jan can we determine if there's been a major cycle change. I am now open to the idea of the cycle bottom being a higher low, which I would not count as a win for the Halving Cycles Theory. The window for the cycle bottom is strictly November 2026 - January 2027. In the case of a higher low, it's likely that cycle timing has finally left shifted. If that were true, it'd put the next cycle top around April - June 2029 instead of October - December 2029. There are still avenues for the cycle to remain fully on track as well, if the current move ends up reversing and market structure does not firmly change. Even if 60k was the ultimate low, it doesn't mean I think everything is gunning for ATHs. Here are my current approach and thoughts: Not invested, not interested in investing currently, still waiting on a better opportunity whether that be a higher low, equal low, or even still, a lower low than 60k. "Everyone's waiting on that! You'll be sidelined!" That's fine. It's important to me to match my personal criteria rather than hop in because I'm scared of missing out.

There must be a limit to every idea, and now mine has been reached. Can't say I didn't try to stick it out for cycle timing! So, I was wrong that the bear market would continue, and I did not buy the lows at 60k. Market structure looks well on track to confirm a higher high, to reverse the downtrend into an uptrend. I am not rushing to buy in here. I will still wait for a better opportunity. And of course, I'm still hoping that somehow the cycle finds its way back to a low in November–January, but at this point, I am marking that as wishful thinking. There were plenty of bottom signals, and even bull market start signals, that I ignored in favor of traditional cycle timing and the completion of even more cycle bottom data. Fortunately, the system I use is still very much alive and well; I just didn't respect it this time. I am still sidelined in crypto, but I have a varied stock portfolio bought at the crypto lows that is doing well. My focus is now on readjusting cycle expectations and figuring out what prices we can expect next for both Bitcoin and altcoins for the remainder of the year. Wrong, but optimistic!

The pressure is on as Bitcoin makes yet another attempt at 82k. So the question is, "CryptoCon, when will you give it up and admit the bull market is here?" Never! .... In all seriousness, the most important bull/bear threshold for me would be a change in price structure: a clear break above 83k to make a higher high, followed by a higher low. At that point, my main focus would be observation to discover new cycle dynamics. With that being said, my trust in the cycle remains. Let's continue to watch what price action has in store for us!