Stan Samuel PhD

Unserious folks Take self too seriously Hold ego lightly

It is true that Social Security as it's currently structured is untenable for future generations. Something has to be done. Maybe the debate is helped by changing/augmenting the language from "delay retirement age" to "what sources of support do you have in retirement?". Only 7% of all retirement assets are in Social Security Trust. The vast majority may already be shifting their dependence away from Social Security checks for their retirement years. One approach could be to scale back SS withholding from paychecks for people born after 1970 from 12.4% to 0% for those born after a certain year, say 1985. Divert those withdrawals to the employee's retirement account. These cutoffs are arbitrary numbers for the sake of expounding on the point.

Folks are currently valuing $TSLA as an EV company like they did with $AMZN in 2002 without understanding the true value and growth potential for its AWS business. We don't quite grasp the impact of the Supercharger Network, Tesla Energy, Dojo/FSD, and Optimus.

We are too far-sighted with our past and too short-sighted with our future.

"If only" enslaves If only I had that thing I would be happy

Notice how many "leading" companies you read about? If everybody's leading, then by definition everybody's average.

IMO one of the structures that needs to be shattered and rebuilt is that of research data. Academic research is quite fragile because the materials and methods are so finely tuned as to provide outcomes in line with hypotheses. Nearly impossible to replicate outside that lab. And the data is entirely siloed. My vision is to use or build a repository of research data that can be accessed and analyzed by a wide swath of researchers around the globe thereby infusing resiliency into the research. A "github" of data if you will. How does such a repository get populated? Wheels are turning... Cc @philosophygeek @lastnamefox

Airdrops seem to be having the same effect on human psyche as the fed stimulus checks did. "When is the next one coming?" "Why didn't I get enough?" "It must be the airdropper's fault that the price is dropping." We don't value what is given to us freely which is probably not good for the ecosystem as a whole. Every product or service needs to stand on its own merit. Do people find value in it? If so, what are they willing to pay for it. Airdrops seem to be blurring that distinction.

How entitled are we to consider boomers who choose to stay in their paid-off homes, rather than selling to us, as being selfish? This is the country, where I just became a US citizen after decades of immigration process, where early immigrants created their future. Go build yours

May be unappreciated in crypto-fi but this is something tradfi is aware of...it is a promising sign if your investment is behaving like this. Building a base is a good thing, shall I even say necessary, for new gains. This is true for all things in nature.

AUM for ETFs/Passive Funds have grown from $3.4 Trillion in 2013 to $11.3 Trillion by end of 2022, an AGR of 12.72% compared to 1.66% for Active Mutual Funds. This is a big reason for elevated PE ratios. There is always a bid for these companies' stock regardless of valuation.

How often have you heard the phrase, "You're the average of the 5 people you surround yourself with"? Sounds zero sum if really true. If the other 5 are raising your average, then you are lowering theirs.

We are steadily supplanting critical thinking with critical care thinking. We seem to be going from one crisis mentality to another all the while shedding ourselves of the ability and environment to ask good questions.

Wish I knew all along that an asterisk is the key to unlocking the veracity of any statistic. Who has the time to read the accompanying tiny font?

This is a graphical representation of my Moderation Hypothesis {MoHy} which I hope to turn into a mathematical representation this year. The assumption is that the model is multi-factorial (eg. food, sleep, etc), applies to each factor, which in turn affects all other factors.