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Updated Maricopa County early voting snapshot (R vs D only, as of ~Oct 28, 2026)
Republicans have extended their slight lead in raw ballots returned, while their advantage in outstanding ballots remains substantial.
Of the ballots already returned, Republicans account for 298,844 while Democrats have returned 281,670 (R+17,174).
Republicans have 139,186 more ballots still outstanding than Democrats.
Updated Maricopa County early voting snapshot (as of ~Oct 27, 2026)
Republicans have extended their slight lead in raw ballots returned, while their advantage in outstanding ballots remains substantial.
Of the ballots already returned, Republicans account for 255,150 while Democrats have returned 247,498 (R+7,652)
Republicans have 148,708 more ballots still outstanding than Democrats
Updated Maricopa County early voting snapshot (as of ~Oct 26, 2026)
Republicans hold a narrow lead in raw ballots returned (about R+4k), flipping the earlier Democratic edge, while maintaining a large advantage in outstanding ballots.
Of the ballots outstanding Republicans: (R+152,400).
Daily recent drops have favored Republicans. Democrats continue to show higher relative turnout among their registered voters, but the raw ballot count and remaining ballot pool favor Republicans.
Updated Maricopa County early voting snapshot (as of ~Oct 24–25, 2026)
Republicans hold a narrow lead in raw ballots returned (flipping the prior Democratic edge), while maintaining a substantial advantage in outstanding ballots.
Of the ballots already returned, Republicans account for 194,157 while Democrats have returned 193,885 (R+272).
As a result, Republicans still have more ballots outstanding—690,128 left to return versus 534,040 for Democrats (R+156,088).
Daily drops in the preceding days had favored Republicans (e.g., a ~53k Oct 23 drop at roughly R+4.8).
Updated Maricopa County early voting snapshot (as of ~Oct 24, 2026)
Republicans have taken a slight lead in raw ballots returned (flipping from the prior Democratic edge), while their advantage in outstanding ballots remains large.
Democrats continue to return at a higher rate relative to registration.Of the ballots already returned, Republicans account for 194,157 while Democrats have returned 193,885 (R+272).
As a result, Republicans still have more ballots outstanding—690,128 left to return versus 534,040 for Democrats (R+156,088).
DogAndBone @Curious Cat retweeted
Actualización sobre el conteo de boletas
Cada mañana, después de que comienza el conteo de boletas, los partidos políticos verifican el contador digital de cada máquina, el cual registra la cantidad de boletas contadas por cada tabulador, para confirmar que coincida con la cantidad registrada el día anterior y garantizar que no se hayan contado boletas en la máquina durante la noche.
Hoy, durante este proceso, el contador digital de un tabulador mostró un mensaje de error.
El personal revisó de inmediato el registro del Sistema de Administración Electoral, donde se almacenan las imágenes de las boletas y los resultados.
Las boletas contadas por este tabulador durante los dos días anteriores estaban registradas correctamente en el Sistema de Administración Electoral. Esto indicó que el problema estaba limitado a este único tabulador.
Actualmente, no está claro por qué este tabulador mostró un mensaje de error, pero se ha retirado de uso por el resto del ciclo electoral. El personal continúa investigando el mensaje de error.
Mientras tanto, por precaución y para garantizar la transparencia total, las boletas que pasaron por el tabulador en cuestión se retirarán del Sistema de Administración Electoral (para evitar que se cuenten dos veces) y se procesarán nuevamente en otro tabulador. Las boletas se separan por día y por tabulador, por lo que se sabe cuáles deben procesarse nuevamente.
Los observadores de los partidos políticos estarán presentes durante todo el proceso.
Este procedimiento, establecido por el Condado de Maricopa, requiere que los observadores de los partidos políticos revisen diariamente cada contador digital de cada tabulador. Se implementó precisamente para atender situaciones como esta y garantizar la integridad del proceso.
Updated Maricopa County early voting snapshot (as of ~Oct 23, 2026)
Republicans have now taken a slight lead in raw ballots returned (flipping from the prior D edge), while their advantage in outstanding ballots remains large.
Democrats continue to return at a higher rate relative to registration.
Of the ballots already returned, Republicans account for 194,157 while Democrats have returned 193,885. (R+272).
As a result, Republicans still have more ballots outstanding—690,128 left to return versus 534,040 for Democrats. (R+156,088)
Return rates:
Republican 22.0%
Democrat 26.6%
Overall 19.5% (of ~2.59M registered).
#arizona #maricopa
Updated Maricopa County early voting snapshot (as of ~Oct 22, 2026)
The Democratic return-rate edge has narrowed further in raw ballots, while the Republican lead in outstanding ballots has widened.
Of the ballots already returned, Democrats account for 175,077 while Republicans have returned 172,799 (19.5%). (D+2,278)
As a result, Republicans still have more ballots outstanding—711,486 left to return versus 552,848 for Democrats. (R+158,638)
#arizona #maricopa
DogAndBone @Curious Cat retweeted
Joint Statement from Chair Brophy McGee and Vice Chair Lesko:
Ballot Tabulation Update:
Every morning following the start of ballot tabulation, the political parties confirm the digital counter on each machine that tracks the number of ballots counted by each tabulator to confirm it matches the number from the previous day - ensuring no ballots were tabulated on the machine overnight.
Today, during this process, the digital counter on one tabulator displayed an error message.
Staff immediately reviewed the count on the Election Management System log where ballot images and results are stored.
Ballots counted during the previous two days by this tabulator were accurately reflected in the Election Management System. This indicated that the issue was isolated to this single tabulator.
It is currently unclear why this single tabulator displayed an error message, but it has been removed from use for the rest of the cycle. Staff continue to research the error message.
In the meantime, out of an abundance of caution and to be completely transparent, ballots that were run on the tabulator in question will be backed out of the Election Management System (so they are not double counted) and run through a different tabulator. Ballots are segregated by day and tabulator, so it is known which ballots to re-run.
Political party observers will be present during the entire process.
This process set by Maricopa County to have the political party observers check each digital counter every day on every tabulator was created to address a situation like this and ensure integrity in the process.
DogAndBone @Curious Cat retweeted
Arizona law requires the Recorders to obtain Documented Proof of Citizenship for every Arizona Voter.
AG Mayes could resolve this dispute immediately by simply providing the evidence of citizenship she claims her office already obtained.
My office stands ready to restore every eligible voter to full-ballot status the moment we receive the documents we have requested.
But Arizona's citizenship requirements cannot be replaced by political demands.
RECORDER HEAP: AG MAYES CHOOSES LAWSUITS AND POLITICAL THEATER OVER PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP
Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap issued the following statement in response to Attorney General Kris Mayes filing a lawsuit seeking to compel the restoration of full-ballot voting eligibility to 24 individuals without providing proof of citizenship. Read the statement here: recorder.maricopa.gov/news/H…
Updated Maricopa County Early Voting Snapshot (as of ~Oct 21, 2026)
The Democratic return-rate edge has narrowed slightly in raw ballots relative to the earlier cut, and the Republican lead in outstanding ballots remains large.
Of the ballots already returned, Democrats account for 149,351 (20.5% of their active registrants) while Republicans have returned 146,307 (16.5%). (D+3,044)
As a result, Republicans still have more ballots outstanding—544,231 left to return versus 480,554 for Democrats. (R+63,677)
NB: Ballot trackers are using registration figures consistent with close-of-registration (Oct 5) data for Maricopa; party splits on returns follow current tracker reporting (total early returns ~383,527).#maricopa #elections #arizona
I ran the numbers for shits and giggles: Compared the official voter registration in Maricopa County 2020 V 2026
Dem's Down by -86K (10.6%) of registered voters
Dem's Down by -73K (10.5%) of Pevl/Mail ballot Request
Reps down 30K and 37k respectively
Others gain 111K and 59K Respectively.
LOSER: DEMS
GAINS: Others
#arizona #maricopa
DogAndBone @Curious Cat retweeted
This a pollsters that was including in aggregates for:
Georgia - Senate
Maine - Senate
Kansas - Senate
Iowa - Senate + Gov
Ohio - Senate
Texas - Senate
Maricopa County Early Voting Snapshot
Republicans hold a clear registration edge in Maricopa County, with 884,285 active registered voters compared with 727,925 Democrats. (R+156,360)
That advantage carries over to the Active Early Voting List (AEVL), where 690,538 Republican ballots have been issued versus 629,905 for Democrats. (R+60,633)
Of the ballots already returned, Democrats account for 120,698 (16.6% of their active registrants) while Republicans have returned 116,464 (13.2%). (D+4,234)
As a result, Republicans still have more ballots outstanding—574,074 left to return versus 509,207 for Democrats. (R+64,867)
NB: Ballot trackers are using PRIMARY election data.
#maricopa #elections #arizona
Maricopa County Early Voting Snapshot
Republicans hold a clear registration edge in Maricopa County, with 884,285 active registered voters compared with 727,925 Democrats. (R+156,360)
That advantage carries over to the Active Early Voting List (AEVL), where 690,538 Republican ballots have been issued versus 629,905 for Democrats. (R+60,633)
Of the ballots already returned, Democrats account for 91,702 (12.6% of their active registrants) while Republicans have returned 86,586 (9.8%). (D+5,116)
As a result, Republicans still have more ballots outstanding—603,952 left to return versus 538,203 for Democrats. (R+65,749).
NB: Ballot trackers are using PRIMARY election data.
#Maricopa #arizona
DogAndBone @Curious Cat retweeted
Transparency In Action: Unauthorized After-Hours Early Voting Site Access Immediately Addressed; No Voters Affected
In keeping with Recorder Justin Heap’s rigorous standards for complete transparency, the Maricopa County Recorder's Office (MCRO) is sharing with the public an incident of unauthorized access to an early voting site at the Chandler-Gilbert Community College Early Voting location. No voters were affected. Read full release here:
recorder.maricopa.gov/news/E…
DogAndBone @Curious Cat retweeted
Unlike some of my colleagues in County government, I trust the voters of Maricopa County. And I believe the only way to earn their trust is through complete transparency - especially when election security is at stake.
This morning, we identified a potential security issue at one of our early voting locations. We took immediate action.
Here’s what happened, what we know, and what we’re doing about it.
Transparency In Action: Unauthorized After-Hours Early Voting Site Access Immediately Addressed; No Voters Affected
In keeping with Recorder Justin Heap’s rigorous standards for complete transparency, the Maricopa County Recorder's Office (MCRO) is sharing with the public an incident of unauthorized access to an early voting site at the Chandler-Gilbert Community College Early Voting location. No voters were affected. Read full release here:
recorder.maricopa.gov/news/E…
What is going on in Maricopa, Arizona. Absolute differences total 49,208 Registered Voters!!!
Stealth Analytics states that its early-ballot (ABEV) tracker is built from the counties’ own ABEV files, processed through a per-county adapter and aggregated to county, CD, LD, and precinct.
The official Active Voters line is the county’s statutory figure as of the October 5 close-of-registration cutoff under A.R.S. § 16-168(G).
Stealth states its tracker is built from the counties’ own ABEV files with reconciliation checks. Even after aligning Other to the full LBT + GRN + NOL + OTH total, their overall number remains ~23,570 lower than the official active total, with a 49,208 absolute difference across the party categories. People who registered after October 5 are not eligible to vote in this election.
Maricopa County Registration: Official vs. Stealth Analytics
Official Bound Precinct Totals (Active Voters, cutoff 10/05/2026):
Republican: 884,285
Democratic: 727,925
Other (LBT + GRN + NOL + OTH): 977,617
Total Active: 2,589,827
Stealth Analytics:
Republican: 897,104
Democratic: 713,671
Other: 955,482
Total: 2,566,257
Differences (Stealth − Official):
Republican: +12,819
Democratic: −14,254
Other: −22,135
Total: −23,570
Absolute Difference: 49,208
Stealth’s methodology states that nothing is published unless it passes an internal reconciliation audit; if the check fails, the site keeps the previous day’s numbers.
Can anyone explain this?? Anyone??
@Rach_IC @azjustinheap @BarnettforAZ @AZGOP @MerissaCaldwell @RecordersOffice @MaricopaVote @mattvanbibber @MarkStewart_AZ @LPMaricopa @KristenNHammond @RealMichelleAz @BlehmLawAZ
@StealthPolling Let's use a live example: Congressional District 2:
Made up of only 3 Precincts - your total registration is 1,361 but the official is 1,529. Net Variance of 178 Registered Voters that's more that 10% difference.
Your AEVL numbers = 749
The official AEVL numbers are: 760.
What happened to the "missing" 11 ballots. Were they sent??
