grinding the trenches for fun and profit
Joined October 2013
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writing publicly forces a rigor that private notes never do
i'm starting a public log of a fully systematic trading system from scratch
will implement Carver's Systematic Trading methods on crypto data
the goal is to move away from behavioral biases and discretionary trading towards a systematic approach
gonna be a running experiment, applying a rules-based approach: volatility-targeting, position sizing, forecasting rules ...and more
🧵
🤖 Made with AI
every pair is materially positive, so no genuine offset anywhere in the book
this sets the tone for portfolio construction
risk doesn't scale with the number of instruments. it scales with independent return streams
in our example with an average correlation near 0.6, our basket behaves like ~1.5 effective bets
to frame it in carver's framework: the diversification multiplier on your risk target collapses as correlations rise
this means adding instruments with high correlation buys us almost no reduction in pf volatility. we've just re-expressed the same factor
bottomline is that correlation structure sets the ceiling on how much diversification is available to harvest
TIL cobie is a man of culture
#factorio
I decided rather than chilling to instead make my life incredibly stressful and busy so now i am responsible for trading products at Coinbase (CB app / Pro / Baseapp / etc).
I cant explain why I did this except I like the opportunity to make something actually good more than I like playing Factorio.
So ye maybe I’m an idiot, let’s find out
SPACEWHALES retweeted
arthur hayes publicly bet $100k that HYPE outperforms top 10 cryptos through year end. three days later his wallet deposited $18m in HYPE to an exchange and sold 247k tokens. price dropped 4% instantly. grayscale launched the HYPE ETF on june 1st and the token dumped 25% in 72 hours. $20m+ weekly revenue. $3.22b open interest ATH. $173m ETF AUM with zero outflow days on bitwise even through the crash. the ETF was supposed to be the buy catalyst. instead authorized participants arbed it into a liquidity exit. every metric at ATH except price. hayes selling into his own public bet is the cherry on top
All three are solid memes, I just wouldn't touch leverage with so many real world bs going on
Spot and chill is the way
The urge to just buy everything in spot and just walk away. Memes will do well when risk on conditions come. Maybe I should just buy
$FARTCOIN
$USELESS
$PEPE
and then maybe 1-2 others for bsc and maybe 1 tech coin and just do nothing after that...would probably make more $
Notes I kept from the recent 1000x podcast with Capital Flows:
We're in the golden age of discretionary trading. Individual traders can move fast & embrace volatility that big funds can't. That's your edge. Use it.
True edge isn't just price. Pure TA is a fool's errand. Layer in macro data, global liquidity flows & central bank certainty or you're flying blind.
Control your information diet. Read sell-side research to find holes in your own thesis. Long-form macro in the morning. Social media = headlines only, never research.
Geopolitical wildcard: A US-led regime change in Iran could cripple China's global apparatus & trigger a massive rush back into US equities, killing gold & the multipolar trade overnight.
Commodity play: Western uranium & rare earth miners. Nuclear is non-negotiable for powering AI data centers. Avoid anything China-supply-chain dependent.
High-conviction 2026 trades:→ $PER best proxy for Hyperliquid's TradFi/crypto bridge → Oracle. Larry Ellison is betting the entire balance sheet on AI infra. Exponential upside.
omg is it happening?
pls let this be the start of a new ai x crypto cycle
the tl is already full of claude code slop anyway...
obviously if i ever sell this token you guys are going to fucking hate me lol
and i want to see you all make money and ideally utilize this energy to do something fun or interesting
so what should we do with it?
i'd love to use the tokens to keep the token going
like an ai show about shaw being a crazy autistic wizard who struggles with normal life stuff could be funny
or some kind of cool game or agentic thing with a revenue model
post your thots
EV = Expected Value
Poker players are familiar with the term +ev. They strive to find small edges exploitable over many hands.
This is the best way to think about polymarket.
Don't bet all your stack in 1 bet. Make consistent +ev bets with 5% of your bankroll.
This way you are going to be profitable in the long-term.
Small wins compound quickly. Don't underestimate them.
Bad beats and variance can -and will- happen, but focus on not losing your temper and stick to the plan.
Get in the mindset of filtering-out noise. Over a large enough sample probabilities converge to the true mean.
Here are 3 current markets for quick, small % gains 👇
The hardest part was staying patient while markets are boring...
And market finally feels fresh after a long hiatus
$XMR is establishing 700 as a clear floor and I tried farming some @extendedapp points around this breakout
ETHGas is introducing the Open Gas Initiative, letting protocols incentivize their users to grow onchain adoption while ending gas fees anxiety for good.
@Uniswap , @aave , @opensea are you in? 👀
Join Open Gas: ethgas.com/open-gas/
teapawt.org/ethgasofficial/status/…
Introducing the Open Gas Initiative - a way for protocols to subsidize gas for users, zero-code, for a seamless, frictionless onchain experience.
With OG cohort: @eigencloud, @ether_fi, @pendle_fi, @Velvet_Capital.
👇
